Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,910
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 14, 2023 18:11:07 GMT
Perhaps Mid Bedfordshire will be the Littleborough and Saddleworth of this Parliament? The history suggested a huge Lib Dem gain and what happened a tiny Lib Dem gain with Lab second and the Conservatives pushed into a distant third (in other words, whoever wins will be Lab or Lib Dem and the Conservatives will be pushed into third making the loss even more terrible for Sunak, with Tamworth coming soon)
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Post by stb12 on Sept 14, 2023 18:13:14 GMT
Perhaps Mid Bedfordshire will be the Littleborough and Saddleworth of this Parliament? The history suggested a huge Lib Dem gain and what happened a tiny Lib Dem gain with Lab second and the Conservatives pushed into a distant third (in other words, whoever wins will be Lab or Lib Dem and the Conservatives will be pushed into third making the loss even more terrible for Sunak, with Tamworth coming soon) Was that ever as safe a seat for the Tories as this is though?
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Post by batman on Sept 14, 2023 18:13:49 GMT
that's possible, but the Tory vote has a firmer base here and the Tories are doing very slightly less appallingly than they were at that time. (this crossed with stb12's comment & makes a similar point)
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Post by greenhert on Sept 14, 2023 18:19:12 GMT
Perhaps Mid Bedfordshire will be the Littleborough and Saddleworth of this Parliament? The history suggested a huge Lib Dem gain and what happened a tiny Lib Dem gain with Lab second and the Conservatives pushed into a distant third (in other words, whoever wins will be Lab or Lib Dem and the Conservatives will be pushed into third making the loss even more terrible for Sunak, with Tamworth coming soon) Was that ever as safe a seat for the Tories as this is though? Nowhere near, just reliable.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 14, 2023 18:21:16 GMT
Was that ever as safe a seat for the Tories as this is though? Nowhere near, just reliable. that's possible, but the Tory vote has a firmer base here and the Tories are doing very slightly less appallingly than they were at that time. (this crossed with stb12's comment & makes a similar point) I thought that, so while there’s every chance they’ll lose under the current circumstances finishing 3rd seems like a stretch and would indicate things are even worse than the polls may suggest
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,294
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Post by iain on Sept 14, 2023 18:38:36 GMT
We’ve reached that stage in the by-election where, whatever the outcome, everyone just wants the Lib Dem campaign to be swallowed by an eponymous black hole because it’s just so craven and annoying. Complete issue devoid non politics. The Lib Dems are campaigning on issues in the seat (I believe GP access is a big one). From posts on here it appears to be the Labour campaign which is struggling to talk about anything except their opponents ...
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2023 18:46:16 GMT
And each time they finish up winning, but I don't suppose you believe that either? You may think that's a killer, witty answer, but you've missed my point completely. Just look at the results of the by-elections in Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire and Somerton & Frome. Are you seriously claiming that the Liberal Democrats were at any stage close to the end behind the Tories? It's painfully obvious that they were ahead, and in at least two cases a long way ahead. They used "canvass returns" - which in all these cases I regard as either fictitious, or woefully inaccurate - to motivate people to vote tactically when they had already won those elections. Here in Mid Beds things are rather different as Labour are refusing, quite rightly, to lay down and die. Now what would really impress me would be the Liberal Democrats winning a by-election by saying "We are better than both the Conservatives and Labour (and other parties if applicable) because of such-and-such policy issues" but of course they never do this. Instead they pretend they have a more local candidate or stuff like that, as they are doing in Mid Beds. I hope they lose this by-election and lose it badly because this is not progressive politics, it's just a mixture of insults and mendacity. An interesting answer and I will attempt an honest reply. The interesting bit is that most critics complain that the Lib Dems are exaggerating their reading of their vote share, to up their chances in the final run-in. You on the other hand are implying that they are understating their vote share when they know that they are actually well ahead. I think critics from the two big parties inevitably think of it as they would their own campaigns, where I would say, in simple terms, the main task in a by-election campaign is getting to your core vote, already identified ( one might hope), so the main job is enthusing that core vote to actually turn out. Conversions of the opposition is nice, but maybe not the priority. For the LibDems in by-elections like these it is never going to be like that- the core vote is tiny for this purpose and most votes are going to be won from conversions, which at this stage has to be seen as one-offs. The canvass data is real, but will only be there in sufficient quantity late in the campaign, and will always be open to interpretation, so if all those promises are for real maybe home and dry, but not if something else intervenes in the last few days. I suspect a Labour/Tory worker looking at their canvass returns at the same stage would have a pretty good idea whether their core vote is holding and if they are making dents elsewhere. They will know,maybe, whether a big final push is necessary, or whether they are comfortable (or all is already lost). The Lib Dems may have a lot of experience to interpret the data they have- but there will remain a greater element of uncertainty. I have not always been comfortable with Lib Dem election tactics in the past in what I still think of as the Rennard era, nor in some local parties/elections more recently, and I understand where the more balanced critics of Lib Dem practices are coming from, and where style triumphs over substance I will wince a bit, but we all have to accept things like that in the parties we, for better or worse,have decided to support. If there is anyone here who says they cannot find things to deplore in the party they put their name to, they are not telling the truth, most probably to themselves. But by and large I think the Liberal Democrat election machine, and especially the by-election machine, is clean, in a way many of its critics chose to ignore.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,299
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Post by graham on Sept 14, 2023 19:29:34 GMT
Labour are now very slight favourites on Betfair -at 3.0 with the LDs on 3.05. The Tories are on 3.3. SMarkets also has Labour on 3.0 with the Tories on 3.2. The LDs have drifted to 3.25.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 14, 2023 20:29:01 GMT
isn't it amazing - every single by-election where they release returns they're ONLY JUST BEHIND the Tories? If you believe that you'll believe anything. And each time they finish up winning, but I don't suppose you believe that either? Well, indeed we do not as it is a very silly falsehood. But hey! When did that ever stop a LD pipedream from turning from 'virtual nonsense' into glorious reality. We have the accummulated evidence of 100-years before us. THE LDs DON'T WIN HERE ....................... EVER! Except in a handful of usual suspect seats, that they can never hold very long!! It is because they are so very popular. We know that. Because they keep saying so.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 14, 2023 20:41:31 GMT
And each time they finish up winning, but I don't suppose you believe that either? You may think that's a killer, witty answer, but you've missed my point completely. Just look at the results of the by-elections in Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire and Somerton & Frome. Are you seriously claiming that the Liberal Democrats were at any stage close to the end behind the Tories? It's painfully obvious that they were ahead, and in at least two cases a long way ahead. They used "canvass returns" - which in all these cases I regard as either fictitious, or woefully inaccurate - to motivate people to vote tactically when they had already won those elections. Here in Mid Beds things are rather different as Labour are refusing, quite rightly, to lay down and die. Now what would really impress me would be the Liberal Democrats winning a by-election by saying "We are better than both the Conservatives and Labour (and other parties if applicable) because of such-and-such policy issues" but of course they never do this. Instead they pretend they have a more local candidate or stuff like that, as they are doing in Mid Beds. I hope they lose this by-election and lose it badly because this is not progressive politics, it's just a mixture of insults and mendacity. I thought this poll was interesting in that it showed the Lib Dems actually offer nothing of substance other than an appeal to tactically vote. x.com/_joebelcher/status/1701861669545071011?s=20
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2023 20:58:05 GMT
You may think that's a killer, witty answer, but you've missed my point completely. Just look at the results of the by-elections in Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire and Somerton & Frome. Are you seriously claiming that the Liberal Democrats were at any stage close to the end behind the Tories? It's painfully obvious that they were ahead, and in at least two cases a long way ahead. They used "canvass returns" - which in all these cases I regard as either fictitious, or woefully inaccurate - to motivate people to vote tactically when they had already won those elections. Here in Mid Beds things are rather different as Labour are refusing, quite rightly, to lay down and die. Now what would really impress me would be the Liberal Democrats winning a by-election by saying "We are better than both the Conservatives and Labour (and other parties if applicable) because of such-and-such policy issues" but of course they never do this. Instead they pretend they have a more local candidate or stuff like that, as they are doing in Mid Beds. I hope they lose this by-election and lose it badly because this is not progressive politics, it's just a mixture of insults and mendacity. I thought this poll was interesting in that it showed the Lib Dems actually offer nothing of substance other than an appeal to tactically vote. x.com/_joebelcher/status/1701861669545071011?s=20Eh? I don't read that poll as showing anything of the sort. Either you have got the wrong poll or you are reading something into it from your own prejudices which simply isn't there.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 14, 2023 21:11:02 GMT
Eh? I don't read that poll as showing anything of the sort. Either you have got the wrong poll or you are reading something into it from your own prejudices which simply isn't there. OK what does it show then? Historically when asked if the party could win how would people vote the Lib Dem score would regularly be 40%+. For them not to shift the dial when asked if they had an equal chance of winning suggests they don't have an offer that people buy into. The fact that the vast majority of uplift goes to the Greens suggests a chunk of voters want to back them but are held back because they don't think they can win. It used to be the Lib Dems that had a popular platform/image but were held back because people thought they couldn't win.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2023 21:41:17 GMT
Eh? I don't read that poll as showing anything of the sort. Either you have got the wrong poll or you are reading something into it from your own prejudices which simply isn't there. OK what does it show then? Historically when asked if the party could win how would people vote the Lib Dem score would regularly be 40%+. For them not to shift the dial when asked if they had an equal chance of winning suggests they don't have an offer that people buy into. The fact that the vast majority of uplift goes to the Greens suggests a chunk of voters want to back them but are held back because they don't think they can win. It used to be the Lib Dems that had a popular platform/image but were held back because people thought they couldn't win. I now understand the point you were trying to make and up to a point I accept it. However, I think the difficulty is in separating perception from reality. As you say, the uplift in these circumstances goes to the Greens because people think they know what the Green Party is for, but they are almost certainly wrong. ( I have a number of environmentally minded friends who vote for anybody rather than the Greens). If you are saying that the Lib Dems in recent years have been less good at getting their message across about what they are for, I would probably agree with you, but that is not the same as saying they have no message- its just not getting across. I suspect there was always a misunderstanding, as we all saw post 2010. However, I'm not sure that any of the other parties come off any better- Labour seems to me rapidly moving to a position where they will implement Tory policies with greater efficiency. As a Lib Dem I was much more likely to have voted for a Corbyn Labour Party than the Starmer version. And does anyone really have a clue which Tory party will survive the next two years?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2023 6:12:17 GMT
I increasingly think we get a result like this (maybe Labour swapped with the LDs). Tories winning on <1/3 of the vote
European Parliament election, 1994: Devon and East Plymouth Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Giles Chichester 74,953 31.7 Liberal Democrats Adrian Sanders 74,253 31.4 Labour Linda Gilroy 47,596 20.1 Liberal David Morrish 14,621 6.2 Green Paul A. Edwards 11,172 4.7 Literal Democrat Richard Huggett 10,203 4.3 Independent John A. Everard 2,629 1.1 Natural Law Andrew J. Pringle 908 0.4 Majority 700 0.3
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,910
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 15, 2023 6:29:48 GMT
I increasingly think we get a result like this (maybe Labour swapped with the LDs). Tories winning on <1/3 of the vote European Parliament election, 1994: Devon and East Plymouth Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Giles Chichester 74,953 31.7 Liberal Democrats Adrian Sanders 74,253 31.4 Labour Linda Gilroy 47,596 20.1 Liberal David Morrish 14,621 6.2 Green Paul A. Edwards 11,172 4.7 Literal Democrat Richard Huggett 10,203 4.3 Independent John A. Everard 2,629 1.1 Natural Law Andrew J. Pringle 908 0.4 Majority 700 0.3 Perhaps not the best example (given that that constituency had three Liberals in it, Liberal Democrat, Liberal, Literal Democrat) but I agree, and it would not be the first instance either, take what happened in Cities of London last time. In 2017, Labour turned it from a solid Conservative seat into a marginal, and then in 2019 the Lib Dems turned it into a three way marginal, but the Conservative was still elected
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2023 6:54:58 GMT
I increasingly think we get a result like this (maybe Labour swapped with the LDs). Tories winning on <1/3 of the vote European Parliament election, 1994: Devon and East Plymouth Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Giles Chichester 74,953 31.7 Liberal Democrats Adrian Sanders 74,253 31.4 Labour Linda Gilroy 47,596 20.1 Liberal David Morrish 14,621 6.2 Green Paul A. Edwards 11,172 4.7 Literal Democrat Richard Huggett 10,203 4.3 Independent John A. Everard 2,629 1.1 Natural Law Andrew J. Pringle 908 0.4 Majority 700 0.3 Perhaps not the best example (given that that constituency had three Liberals in it, Liberal Democrat, Liberal, Literal Democrat) but I agree, and it would not be the first instance either, take what happened in Cities of London last time. In 2017, Labour turned it from a solid Conservative seat into a marginal, and then in 2019 the Lib Dems turned it into a three way marginal, but the Conservative was still elected Point taken, but we do have a strong-ish independent here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 15, 2023 7:30:33 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 15, 2023 8:27:27 GMT
That's a much better example and I see Jacob Rees-Mogg's father in law in the fray to take votes from the Tories. The interesting thing about Mid Beds is will this popular local Indo stand and what effect will they have, they'll clearly be outgunned by the three other campaigns and I've not heard of much activity from them over the summer.
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Post by batman on Sept 15, 2023 8:32:59 GMT
An independent is almost certainly going to be a repository of disgruntled ex-Tory votes and would be much less likely to gain support from past Labour or LD voters. The big question as you say is whether he makes a major impact or has merely a bit part.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 15, 2023 8:37:06 GMT
An independent is almost certainly going to be a repository of disgruntled ex-Tory votes and would be much less likely to gain support from past Labour or LD voters. The big question as you say is whether he makes a major impact or has merely a bit part. I suspect that their local base in Flitwick is a mixture of supporters but the ones more likely to stick with them are probably disgruntled Cons. I think if they run, they will come fourth and they will impact Con and possibly LDm much more than Lab.
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