The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,490
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2023 10:11:35 GMT
I’d say certainly not but he represents a seat where a significant number of natural Tories are part of his voting base, so that may influence his attitude a bit You say that, but he also successfully targeted a substantial Labour vote and has managed to keep it onside. The collapse of Labour support to the Lib Dems in Kendal in the early 2000s was spectacular. That is certainly true - yes they were small wards in Kendal then, but you still don't see sitting councillors beaten by 30-40% (as happened in 2006) very often.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,294
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Post by iain on Sept 13, 2023 10:28:17 GMT
That sort of thing doesn't normally happen until much closer to polling day I agree on that but if they wanted to reclaim the narrative outside of twitter/X where this seems to be confined then the way to do this would be at least to brief that they were optimistic about these things. The way you create momentum in a by-election has very little to do with the national media, despite the delusional self-importance of those who work in it.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,299
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Post by graham on Sept 13, 2023 10:43:03 GMT
Betfair now has the parties running very close together. The LDs are quoted at 17/10 - Labour is 19/10 - the Tories at 21/10.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 13, 2023 10:52:15 GMT
The tell for me with this one is a lack of any purported "LibDem internal polling" being leaked. That sort of thing doesn't normally happen until much closer to polling day That's because the purpose of the leak then is to make it look like the Lib Dems can win but it's going to be close - it's used to consolidate support and drive turnout. At this point there's serious question whether the LDs really are the party to consolidate behind if you're anti-Tory, so if the LDs had data that they were (or that could be massaged to suggest the same) then it would certainly have a utility now.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 13, 2023 10:52:32 GMT
You say that, but he also successfully targeted a substantial Labour vote and has managed to keep it onside. The collapse of Labour support to the Lib Dems in Kendal in the early 2000s was spectacular. That is certainly true - yes they were small wards in Kendal then, but you still don't see sitting councillors beaten by 30-40% (as happened in 2006) very often. Particularly whenn they had massive majorities overturned.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2023 10:52:43 GMT
I’d say certainly not but he represents a seat where a significant number of natural Tories are part of his voting base, so that may influence his attitude a bit You say that, but he also successfully targeted a substantial Labour vote and has managed to keep it onside. The collapse of Labour support to the Lib Dems in Kendal in the early 2000s was spectacular. Yes point taken there, he’s done well to hold that voting coalition together especially considering the instability of Lib Dem held seats in recent years. Probably telling that the time he came closest to losing out was when he was distracted by being party leader
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2023 11:07:18 GMT
What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Is Tim Farron a Tory plant? He's giving controlled opposition vibes. I think the Conservatives are winning this with about 31% of the vote tbh. Audrey 2 perhaps?
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 13, 2023 12:42:21 GMT
I don't really think this argument holds up. None of the parts of the constituency are poorly connected to local centres, it's just that the constituency is made up of areas that look in four separate directions. Absolutely there will be services that aren't great, but that'll be more a function of services not being great anywhere rather than about the constituency itself. Given that there are only two wards where more than 10% of residents don't have a car/van (and then only just) public transport is also unlikely to be a major issue. And in any case, the issues that annoy people on the outskirts of Luton won't be the same as annoy people on the outskirts of Bedford, which means you need different messages for different areas. Which is hardly impossible, but makes things more difficult. Those wards being Flitwick which is well connected by rail to Bedford and Luton (and London) and Elstow & Stewartby which is de facto a suburb of Bedford. Buses seem to be one of these things that certain types of political activists obsess about but are of no interest to most normal people in normal places like this (ie outside the large cities) People in the countryside often have kids who use busses to get around when available and their parents when not, so...
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 13, 2023 15:05:00 GMT
Conservative hold (probably with 1/3 of the vote). The opposition are fighting like rats in a sack. What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Typical politician will always spin anything lie to make it look like they are winners. To be fair to the Liberal Democrats they are very good at it.
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Post by robert1 on Sept 14, 2023 10:01:53 GMT
Lib Dem canvass returns to be 'leaked' just before the Lib Dem conference?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 14, 2023 12:46:15 GMT
I like Christine Jardine as a person, but her defence here is really weak and, I think, pretty half-hearted:
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,910
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 14, 2023 13:33:40 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 14, 2023 13:42:10 GMT
isn't it amazing - every single by-election where they release returns they're ONLY JUST BEHIND the Tories? If you believe that you'll believe anything.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 14, 2023 13:54:42 GMT
isn't it amazing - every single by-election where they release returns they're ONLY JUST BEHIND the Tories? If you believe that you'll believe anything. And each time they finish up winning, but I don't suppose you believe that either?
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 14, 2023 14:19:44 GMT
What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Typical politician will always spin anything lie to make it look like they are winners. To be fair to the Liberal Democrats they are very good at it. It can be mitigated by polities that provide low rewards and cause high costs for that. These also can display other qualities, which i personally tend to be inclined favourably to, but a comprehensive evalution thereof would be a matter of informed study and work. Associated mileage when moving from theory to system implementation may vary for reasons.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 14, 2023 14:35:40 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 14, 2023 14:54:00 GMT
isn't it amazing - every single by-election where they release returns they're ONLY JUST BEHIND the Tories? If you believe that you'll believe anything. And each time they finish up winning, but I don't suppose you believe that either? You may think that's a killer, witty answer, but you've missed my point completely. Just look at the results of the by-elections in Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire and Somerton & Frome. Are you seriously claiming that the Liberal Democrats were at any stage close to the end behind the Tories? It's painfully obvious that they were ahead, and in at least two cases a long way ahead. They used "canvass returns" - which in all these cases I regard as either fictitious, or woefully inaccurate - to motivate people to vote tactically when they had already won those elections. Here in Mid Beds things are rather different as Labour are refusing, quite rightly, to lay down and die. Now what would really impress me would be the Liberal Democrats winning a by-election by saying "We are better than both the Conservatives and Labour (and other parties if applicable) because of such-and-such policy issues" but of course they never do this. Instead they pretend they have a more local candidate or stuff like that, as they are doing in Mid Beds. I hope they lose this by-election and lose it badly because this is not progressive politics, it's just a mixture of insults and mendacity.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Sept 14, 2023 15:44:59 GMT
isn't it amazing - every single by-election where they release returns they're ONLY JUST BEHIND the Tories? If you believe that you'll believe anything. If I was being charitable I might believe that they wait for the point when the canvass returns show they are just behind and then release it each time. But it’s very irritating, probably not true, and it works a treat.
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 14, 2023 16:36:18 GMT
We’ve reached that stage in the by-election where, whatever the outcome, everyone just wants the Lib Dem campaign to be swallowed by an eponymous black hole because it’s just so craven and annoying. Complete issue devoid non politics.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 14, 2023 16:45:36 GMT
On SMarkets the LDs are close to losing the position of favourites. Both Labour and the Tories are at 3.0 with the LDs now on 2.98.
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