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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2023 4:49:23 GMT
Conservative hold (probably with 1/3 of the vote). The opposition are fighting like rats in a sack.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 6:52:55 GMT
I don't know mid-Beds - doubtless Pete Whitehead can give chapter and verse - Considering this is only one constituency removed from the one I live in (and has been for many years), I hardly know the place at all. I used to pass through it quite often on the M1 - I think that sums it up fairly well. I visited Wrest Park a few years ago and Flitwick many years ago. I'm more familiar with the parts of the old Mid Bedfordshire which is now in NE Bedfordshire and has proper towns like Biggleswade and Sandy and is connected by the A1. I have an idea how the various parts of the constituency vote but only because I've made that my business. I know how different areas of Bradford tend to vote too but have never set foot in the place.
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Post by batman on Sept 13, 2023 7:11:20 GMT
I used to visit regularly in my youth because we had band practice in Ampthill every weekend! Since then my visits have been very infrequent though I have sometimes been to the Brewery Tap at Shefford and very occasionally other pubs.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 13, 2023 7:36:25 GMT
Constituencies are a construct for voting and nothing else at all. There is no reason why they should not be separated by the East Coast Main Line, the M25, the Mersey Estuary or the Pennine Mountains. It doesn't matter how difficult it is to get from one end to the other or how long it takes or the need for 7 changes of bus, nor the need to pass through three other constiuencies on the way from some parts of the seat to other parts of the seat, because the electors are never affected by any of that in their discrete role of being electors . All of those concerns are tendentious bollocks. Not does it matter if there is no centre to the seat, no hospital and no railway station, as they are irrelevent to the process of voting. Nor does it matter if the electorate look to 5-or more centres, all in differnt constituencies, for most of or even all of their services (as with the new Welad of Kent). This is about voting and only about voting. End of forever! Yes, I know that's your view and while I don't entirely agree I do see your point. Sure, if I (for example) can get everything I need in Stroud and a Dursley resident can get everything they need in Dursley, it makes no odds where or not we can get from Stroud to Dursley, so arguably it doesn't matter whether or not we're in the same constituency. But I'm not talking about whether or not the constituency boundary makes sense, I'm talking about whether or not people in a given area may have difficulty in accessing services if there is no central place for services nearby. If there is no GP in Dursley it matters like hell to people in Dursley. If there's not one in Stroud either, that matters to people in Stroud. Neither Stroud nor Dursley people are going to give a stuff about each others lack of a GP but in that case "lack of GPs" is a local issue for people in the whole constituency and one that should be part of the MPs agenda. It doesn't matter if there's no hospital, station etc in the constituency so long as it's an acceptable journey to one which just happens to lie over the constituency boundary line, but it matters like hell if it does take 7 bus changes to get to one, because that does affect electors all the bloody time. You don't believe me? Fine, that's why our local campaigns are so much more effective than those of most other parties most of the time. Where I believe that you and others of like persuasion are making the cardinal mistake is that it has nothing at all to do with the mechanics of constituency contruction or the mechanics of voting. One lives where one lives for a raft of large and small reasons. One makes a choice and balances advantages against disadvantages. That choice may be obviated by subsequent closures of facilities, declining personal health and fitness, major changes in personal economic circumstances, etc., etc.! But none of that is effected at all by the mechanics of voting and the mechanics of constituency or ward construction. Those major benefits and major constraints are entirely separate from the voting routine and all this blather about the effects on a constituency are complete nonsense. None of it matters at all to that voting. The feelings may affect how those votes are cast and who they are cast for but the structure of the ward or constituency has no effect on anything at all : It really doesn't. I was resident in Sheffield Central before my present seat, and before that in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. Both moves were conscious and deliberate choices by me when I had a greater degree of freedom of action than most of you do. Those two seats could not be more different. From the very large, very remote with virtually no services most people would expect : To a very small, very young, very studenty, very 'foreign' extreme inner city with all services only a very short walk from the front door. One was extremely beautiful, quiet, rural, close to nature, weather dependent, crime free, fresh air and healthy : And the other one was none of those. Neither are 'ideal' at any age and both have considerable advantages over each other. But the crucial 'But' is that the vote was the same and had the same value in each place. None of it was political structure dependent at all. If voting was removed by the destuction of the suffrage nothing would be different in any of the working and living circumstances. The nature and structure of the constituency is virtually irrelevent to everything in any voters life and you all make far too much of this for no purpose at all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2023 7:56:03 GMT
My dad lives in Bedford and Ampthill is a pleasant town. I suspect the Lib Dems will do well there.
Ampthill has a Waitrose, and probably was Remain's best area in this constituency, I'd guess tbh.
Having a Waitrose used to be good for the Tories, but Waitrose shoppers are probably shifting.
From my visits, I think that town might be a bit Chesham & Amersham-y. Pretty well-heeled.
As for Flitwick? Well the less said about that place the better. It's a place you travel through.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 13, 2023 8:00:55 GMT
I've been to Ampthill for a rugby match. Ampthill and District RFC play at Dillingham Park on Woburn Street, but badly need to upgrade their facilities given the level that they are playing at. Apparently there are plans, but for the moment visiting teams still have to visit what appears to be a glade in the woods.
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Post by batman on Sept 13, 2023 8:26:23 GMT
Dillingham could be a local name. I remember in the days when I was a very frequent visitor to Bedford (my then best friend lived there) there was a motormouth Bedford Tory councillor called Brian Dillingham. In those days I also knew Tim Skeet son of the then local MP.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Sept 13, 2023 8:29:50 GMT
I don't know mid-Beds - doubtless Pete Whitehead can give chapter and verse - Considering this is only one constituency removed from the one I live in (and has been for many years), I hardly know the place at all. I used to pass through it quite often on the M1 - I think that sums it up fairly well. I visited Wrest Park a few years ago and Flitwick many years ago. I'm more familiar with the parts of the old Mid Bedfordshire which is now in NE Bedfordshire and has proper towns like Biggleswade and Sandy and is connected by the A1. I have an idea how the various parts of the constituency vote but only because I've made that my business. I know how different areas of Bradford tend to vote too but have never set foot in the place. a sad loss both for you and Bradford, which you should seek to remedy
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 8:39:13 GMT
Considering this is only one constituency removed from the one I live in (and has been for many years), I hardly know the place at all. I used to pass through it quite often on the M1 - I think that sums it up fairly well. I visited Wrest Park a few years ago and Flitwick many years ago. I'm more familiar with the parts of the old Mid Bedfordshire which is now in NE Bedfordshire and has proper towns like Biggleswade and Sandy and is connected by the A1. I have an idea how the various parts of the constituency vote but only because I've made that my business. I know how different areas of Bradford tend to vote too but have never set foot in the place. a sad loss both for you and Bradford, which you should seek to remedy As it happens I may well do so in the not too distant future
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Post by borisminor on Sept 13, 2023 8:48:12 GMT
I am still yet to be convinced that the Liberals are putting in a convincing performance here. The last published polling (albeit some weeks ago) had them in fourth. I do think this might be all spin and bluster. They didn't feel the need to tweet how well they were doing in other seats they gained this Parliament.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 13, 2023 8:49:15 GMT
Conservative hold (probably with 1/3 of the vote). The opposition are fighting like rats in a sack. What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their deposit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't think any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2023 8:53:31 GMT
Conservative hold (probably with 1/3 of the vote). The opposition are fighting like rats in a sack. What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Is Tim Farron a Tory plant? He's giving controlled opposition vibes. I think the Conservatives are winning this with about 31% of the vote tbh.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 13, 2023 9:04:12 GMT
Areas without an obvious centre are less likely to have the same issue throughout the constituency, however. What I was getting at, is that lack of an obvious centre is a local issue in itself, because there is no central point with decent transport links for centralised services. Chances are that the entire area will suffer from at best dispersed small scale services, usually inadequate once you get to a certain level of seriousness, or at worst no services at all. Alternatively, some small location has to be nominated arbitrarily as a centre, which tends to piss off everyone else. There's also bound to be a reason for lack of a centre, often due to physical geography e.g. hills, which will usually lead to a raft of local issues. Can't think of any such reason for mid-Beds, so maybe it is one of those constituencies that the BCE has to create to make up the numbers? That's also an issue: it means there is a lack of identity and people wonder why they are lumped in with other small places that they never visit instead of whatever large town they actually use. They may find that the authorities in said large town ignores their needs due to them being on the fringe or even outside the local authority altogether. Most areas have a centre with slightly neglected fringes, but a constituency entirely made up of the fringes of several centres risks being all neglected (or at least feeling that way.) I don't know mid-Beds - doubtless Pete Whitehead can give chapter and verse - but it is made up of some bits of the edge of Borough of Bedford and a chunk of Central Bedfordshire UA, itself essentially Beds CC minus the obvious centres of Luton and Bedford. The council offices are divided between Chicksands, which is in the constituency (albeit off in one corner) but must surely be one of the most insignificant places to host a Unitary Authority; and the more obvious Dunstable, which is outside the constituency. The Travel-to-work areas seem to be Bedford, Milton Keynes, Luton and Stevenage, all of which are separate local authorities from Central Beds and whose public transport policies are likely to reflect that. The NHS Clinical Commissioning Group is Bedfordshire, meaning that both the main population centres and areas of highest deprivation in the CCG fall outside of Mid-Beds and again provision of NHS services is likely to reflect those facts. My guess - and it's no more than that - is that across the whole constituency there's likely to be poor access to NHS services, especially at specialist level (I note that the hospital sites are in Bedford and Luton, neither in the constituency) and adequate public transport, which would exacerbate lack of local NHS sites; possibly also to secondary schools and further education. All of which which I'd class as local issues. But I'd make that guess precisely on the basis that there is no obvious centre. I don't really think this argument holds up. None of the parts of the constituency are poorly connected to local centres, it's just that the constituency is made up of areas that look in four separate directions. Absolutely there will be services that aren't great, but that'll be more a function of services not being great anywhere rather than about the constituency itself. Given that there are only two wards where more than 10% of residents don't have a car/van (and then only just) public transport is also unlikely to be a major issue. And in any case, the issues that annoy people on the outskirts of Luton won't be the same as annoy people on the outskirts of Bedford, which means you need different messages for different areas. Which is hardly impossible, but makes things more difficult.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2023 9:14:56 GMT
What I was getting at, is that lack of an obvious centre is a local issue in itself, because there is no central point with decent transport links for centralised services. Chances are that the entire area will suffer from at best dispersed small scale services, usually inadequate once you get to a certain level of seriousness, or at worst no services at all. Alternatively, some small location has to be nominated arbitrarily as a centre, which tends to piss off everyone else. There's also bound to be a reason for lack of a centre, often due to physical geography e.g. hills, which will usually lead to a raft of local issues. Can't think of any such reason for mid-Beds, so maybe it is one of those constituencies that the BCE has to create to make up the numbers? That's also an issue: it means there is a lack of identity and people wonder why they are lumped in with other small places that they never visit instead of whatever large town they actually use. They may find that the authorities in said large town ignores their needs due to them being on the fringe or even outside the local authority altogether. Most areas have a centre with slightly neglected fringes, but a constituency entirely made up of the fringes of several centres risks being all neglected (or at least feeling that way.) I don't know mid-Beds - doubtless Pete Whitehead can give chapter and verse - but it is made up of some bits of the edge of Borough of Bedford and a chunk of Central Bedfordshire UA, itself essentially Beds CC minus the obvious centres of Luton and Bedford. The council offices are divided between Chicksands, which is in the constituency (albeit off in one corner) but must surely be one of the most insignificant places to host a Unitary Authority; and the more obvious Dunstable, which is outside the constituency. The Travel-to-work areas seem to be Bedford, Milton Keynes, Luton and Stevenage, all of which are separate local authorities from Central Beds and whose public transport policies are likely to reflect that. The NHS Clinical Commissioning Group is Bedfordshire, meaning that both the main population centres and areas of highest deprivation in the CCG fall outside of Mid-Beds and again provision of NHS services is likely to reflect those facts. My guess - and it's no more than that - is that across the whole constituency there's likely to be poor access to NHS services, especially at specialist level (I note that the hospital sites are in Bedford and Luton, neither in the constituency) and adequate public transport, which would exacerbate lack of local NHS sites; possibly also to secondary schools and further education. All of which which I'd class as local issues. But I'd make that guess precisely on the basis that there is no obvious centre. I don't really think this argument holds up. None of the parts of the constituency are poorly connected to local centres, it's just that the constituency is made up of areas that look in four separate directions. Absolutely there will be services that aren't great, but that'll be more a function of services not being great anywhere rather than about the constituency itself. Given that there are only two wards where more than 10% of residents don't have a car/van (and then only just) public transport is also unlikely to be a major issue. And in any case, the issues that annoy people on the outskirts of Luton won't be the same as annoy people on the outskirts of Bedford, which means you need different messages for different areas. Which is hardly impossible, but makes things more difficult. Those wards being Flitwick which is well connected by rail to Bedford and Luton (and London) and Elstow & Stewartby which is de facto a suburb of Bedford. Buses seem to be one of these things that certain types of political activists obsess about but are of no interest to most normal people in normal places like this (ie outside the large cities)
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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2023 9:26:03 GMT
What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Is Tim Farron a Tory plant? He's giving controlled opposition vibes. I think the Conservatives are winning this with about 31% of the vote tbh. I’d say certainly not but he represents a seat where a significant number of natural Tories are part of his voting base, so that may influence his attitude a bit
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 13, 2023 9:39:36 GMT
What is Tim Farron on? - He goes on to say tbat Labour will likely hold their depksit, suggesting it might cost the Lib Dems the seat. I don't thonk any Lib Dems on here think Labour are gping to do that badly and most think they are in with a fair chance of winning. Is Tim Farron a Tory plant? He's giving controlled opposition vibes. I think the Conservatives are winning this with about 31% of the vote tbh. Yeah a triffid
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2023 9:57:05 GMT
The tell for me with this one is a lack of any purported "LibDem internal polling" being leaked.
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Post by aidypiez on Sept 13, 2023 10:01:38 GMT
The tell for me with this one is a lack of any purported "LibDem internal polling" being leaked. That sort of thing doesn't normally happen until much closer to polling day
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Post by borisminor on Sept 13, 2023 10:03:22 GMT
The tell for me with this one is a lack of any purported "LibDem internal polling" being leaked. That sort of thing doesn't normally happen until much closer to polling day I agree on that but if they wanted to reclaim the narrative outside of twitter/X where this seems to be confined then the way to do this would be at least to brief that they were optimistic about these things.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 13, 2023 10:05:27 GMT
Is Tim Farron a Tory plant? He's giving controlled opposition vibes. I think the Conservatives are winning this with about 31% of the vote tbh. I’d say certainly not but he represents a seat where a significant number of natural Tories are part of his voting base, so that may influence his attitude a bit You say that, but he also successfully targeted a substantial Labour vote and has managed to keep it onside. The collapse of Labour support to the Lib Dems in Kendal in the early 2000s was spectacular.
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