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Post by eastmidlandsright on Sept 1, 2023 20:24:44 GMT
Another example of an absurd and anachronistic system - traditional betting odds. People too stupid to understand traditional betting odds shouldn't be gambling.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2023 20:28:50 GMT
We really don’t expect to win this one… lowballing? I've heard the same from quite a few Lib Dems, that it'll be a tricky one. We'll see, but I'm expecting a Labour win.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 1, 2023 20:30:34 GMT
Another example of an absurd and anachronistic system - traditional betting odds. People too stupid to understand traditional betting odds shouldn't be gambling. I understand it, and I love working out odds. However, I do not gamble. I know myself far too well for that.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 20:31:30 GMT
I want the Conservative Party to win the by-election (obviously), but if it doesn’t, I want it to be a close 3-way marginal with Conservative in 3rd place behind Labour and the Lib Dems. Just because it would be psephologically and historically interesting, like the various similar by-election results in the 1990s. I don’t want it to be just a Conservative defeat with Conservative in 2nd place, because that would be boring as well as disappointing. On balance, if it is a 3-way marginal result (with Conservative third), I would prefer Labour to win rather than the Liberal Democrats - merely because it would be more fun to annoy the Lib Dems and throw their smugness back in their face at a time when they are probably expecting to win. P.S. To make it even more interesting, large vote shares for the Independent and Green candidates would be useful in reducing the percentage share of the vote for the winner. Question for the panel.. when was the last by-election which ended up a tight 3-way battle (as could happen here)? To give some parameters, I'm thinking of no more than 5% between the 1st place and 3rd place candidates. You’re not allowed to move the goalposts by specifying a 5% range, so I’m moving them back again. Batley & Spen (2021) 35% 34% 22% Peterborough (2019) 31% 29% 21% Stoke-on-Trent Central (2017) 32% 25% 24% Eastleigh (2013) 32% 28% 25% Brecon & Radnor (1985) 36% 34% 28% and not quite marginal, but reasonably competitive between 3 candidates, are: Ealing Southall (2007) 42% 28% 23% Dunfermline & West Fife (2006) 36% 31% 21% Leicester South (2004) 35% 29% 20% Ipswich (2001) 43% 28% 22% Littleborough & Saddleworth (1995) 38% 34% 24% Down North (1995) 37% 26% 25% Perth & Kinross (1995) 40% 23% 21% Eastleigh (1994) 44% 28% 25% Monmouth (1991) 39% 34% 25% Richmond Yorkshire (1989) 37% 32% 22% Portsmouth South (1984) 38% 34% 26% Stafford (1984) 40% 32% 27% But this is all wishful thinking. It is far more likely that there will be a substantial difference between 1st and 2nd, between 2nd and 3rd, and that a clear challenger (Labour or Lib Dem, but not both) will clearly emerge in the betting or in the opinion polls well before polling day.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 1, 2023 20:35:05 GMT
Question for the panel.. when was the last by-election which ended up a tight 3-way battle (as could happen here)? To give some parameters, I'm thinking of no more than 5% between the 1st place and 3rd place candidates. Didn't end up overly close in the end, but given the nature of the campaign leading up to it, the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election certainly had the "feel" of a 3-way battle.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,379
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 1, 2023 20:37:03 GMT
Question for the panel.. when was the last by-election which ended up a tight 3-way battle (as could happen here)? To give some parameters, I'm thinking of no more than 5% between the 1st place and 3rd place candidates. You’re not allowed to move the goalposts by specifying a 5% range, so I’m moving them back again. Batley & Spen (2021) 35% 34% 22% Peterborough (2019) 31% 29% 21% Stoke-on-Trent Central (2017) 32% 25% 24% Eastleigh (2013) 32% 28% 25% Brecon & Radnor (1985) 36% 34% 28% manchesterman can do what he bloody wants!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 1, 2023 20:43:43 GMT
I want the Conservative Party to win the by-election (obviously), but if it doesn’t, I want it to be a close 3-way marginal with Conservative in 3rd place behind Labour and the Lib Dems. Just because it would be psephologically and historically interesting, like the various similar by-election results in the 1990s. I don’t want it to be just a Conservative defeat with Conservative in 2nd place, because that would be boring as well as disappointing. On balance, if it is a 3-way marginal result (with Conservative third), I would prefer Labour to win rather than the Liberal Democrats - merely because it would be more fun to annoy the Lib Dems and throw their smugness back in their face at a time when they are probably expecting to win. P.S. To make it even more interesting, large vote shares for the Independent and Green candidates would be useful in reducing the percentage share of the vote for the winner. We really don’t expect to win this one… Who's we? I ask because a lot of Lib Dems seem to assume they're the natural challenger. Are you referring to a particular subset of Lib Dems (eg staff, people who've actually campaigned in the seat, something else?)
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 20:46:45 GMT
You’re not allowed to move the goalposts by specifying a 5% range, so I’m moving them back again. Batley & Spen (2021) 35% 34% 22% Peterborough (2019) 31% 29% 21% Stoke-on-Trent Central (2017) 32% 25% 24% Eastleigh (2013) 32% 28% 25% Brecon & Radnor (1985) 36% 34% 28% manchesterman can do what he bloody wants! Just because he can doesn’t mean he’s allowed to. I’m the Dictator of the World, so I make the rules.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 1, 2023 20:50:49 GMT
You’re not allowed to move the goalposts by specifying a 5% range, so I’m moving them back again. Batley & Spen (2021) 35% 34% 22% Peterborough (2019) 31% 29% 21% Stoke-on-Trent Central (2017) 32% 25% 24% Eastleigh (2013) 32% 28% 25% Brecon & Radnor (1985) 36% 34% 28% manchesterman can do what he bloody wants! Can I introduce you to my wife?
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 1, 2023 20:52:32 GMT
Question for the panel.. when was the last by-election which ended up a tight 3-way battle (as could happen here)? To give some parameters, I'm thinking of no more than 5% between the 1st place and 3rd place candidates. Didn't end up overly close in the end, but given the nature of the campaign leading up to it, the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election certainly had the "feel" of a 3-way battle. I'd forgotten about the big push Galloway made in that by-election! When I framed the question I was more thinking about a Con-Lab-LD contest, but I guess they dont happen too often!
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 1, 2023 20:53:50 GMT
Just because he can doesn’t mean he’s allowed to. I’m the Dictator of the World, so I make the rules. How are the armadilloes and frozen solid platypus?
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,379
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 1, 2023 20:54:23 GMT
Can I introduce you to my wife?
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Post by andrewp on Sept 1, 2023 21:01:50 GMT
Didn't end up overly close in the end, but given the nature of the campaign leading up to it, the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election certainly had the "feel" of a 3-way battle. I'd forgotten about the big push Galloway made in that by-election! When I framed the question I was more thinking about a Con-Lab-LD contest, but I guess they dont happen too often! The last one of those was probably Brecon and Radnor 1985
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 1, 2023 21:21:47 GMT
We really don’t expect to win this one… Who's we? I ask because a lot of Lib Dems seem to assume they're the natural challenger. Are you referring to a particular subset of Lib Dems (eg staff, people who've actually campaigned in the seat, something else?) I think consensus (among reasonably active people) would be we have a good chance, but wouldn’t necessarily ‘expect’ to win. But I wouldn’t say we ‘don’t expect’ to win either.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 21:40:07 GMT
Going further back, the % range between the 1st and 3rd candidates was:
1982 Birmingham Northfield 10.2% 1982 Mitcham & Morden 19.0% 1982 Glasgow Hillhead 7.5% 1981 Croydon NW 14.0% 1980 Southend East 11.7% 1973 Edinburgh North 19.8% between the top 3, and 20.3% between the top 4 1973 Isle of Ely 11.6% 1973 Dundee East 7.5% 1967 Walthamstow West 14.1% 1967 Glasgow Pollok 8.7% 1966 Carmarthen 18.2% 1962 Glasgow Woodside 14.4% 1962 Chippenham 7.8% 1962 Norfolk Central 15.2% 1962 Dorset South 11.8% 1962 Leicester NE 17.3% 1962 Derbyshire West 8.8% 1962 Middlesbrough West 13.9% 1962 Stockton-on-Tees 18.4% 1962 Blackpool North 11.9% 1961 Oswestry 12.8% 1961 Manchester Moss Side 15.4% 1961 High Peak 6.9% 1961 Worcester 9.6% 1960 Bolton East 13.0% 1958 Torrington 13.4% 1954 Inverness 18.8% 1946 Glasgow Bridgeton 12.7% 1946 Combined English Universities 8.0% between the top 3, and 11.3% between the top 4 1939 Holderness 18.0% 1937 Cheltenham 18.8% 1935 Liverpool Wavertree 11.5% 1933 Kilmarnock 13.9% between the top 3, and 17.9% between the top 4 1933 Rhondda East 19.0% 1931 Islington East 11.2% 1930 Shipley 5.8% 1930 Paddington 10.8% 1930 Bromley 8.3% between the top 3, and 17.3% between the top 4 1929 Holland with Boston 13.9% 1928 Ashton-under-Lyne 11.5% 1928 Halifax 16.2% 1928 Carmarthen 6.4% 1928 Middlesbrough 8.4% 1928 Northampton 13.8% 1927 Bosworth 13.7% 1927 Stourbridge 17.8% 1926 East Ham North 15.9% 1925 Stockport 5.3% 1925 Walsall 8.2% 1924 Carmarthen 16.8% 1924 Holland with Boston 16.3% 1924 Westminster Abbey 8.9% 1923 Newcastle-upon-Tyne East 19.0% 1922 Newport 13.8% 1921 Lewisham West 13.4% 1921 Penistone 6.1% 1919 Spen Valley 12.6% 1919 Aberdeenshire & Kincardineshire Central 11.1%
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 21:49:52 GMT
1914 Durham NW 12.4% 1913 Keighley 8.9% 1911 Keighley 10.1% 1909 Sheffield Attercliffe 2.9% between the top 3, and 5.8% between the top 4 1907 Kingston-upon-Hull West 7.1% 1907 Colne Valley 4.1% 1906 Huddersfield 5.8% 1904 Lanarkshire NE 11.4% 1893 Halifax 13.5% 1890 Barrow-in-Furness 13.0%
P.S. Bah Humbug… the 1832 to 1885 book doesn’t even have percentages listed. There were far more by-elections in that period, but obviously most of them had only 1 or 2 candidates anyway. It’s easier to not bother than to make a list
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 22:13:31 GMT
The F.W.S. Craig book of by-election results only gives the percentages for each candidate as far back as 1918. Before then it only lists the winning party, and the party which held the seat before (if it’s a gain from one to the other). So, to find the results and percentages for parliamentary by-elections before 1918 I am having to look through the F.W.S. Craig books of parliamentary election results for 1885-1918 and 1832-1885, which have one page per constituency and which have general elections mixed up with by-elections. It is therefore slower to check the lists, made only slightly easier by the fact that most elections in those days had only 2 candidates. But Eureka! I have found one result which fits within the 5% limit specified by manchesterman: Colne Valley 18th July 1907 Victor Grayson (Independent Labour) 3,648 (35.2%) P. Bright (Liberal) 3,495 (33.7%) G.C.H. Wheler (Conservative) 3,227 (31.1%) a range of 4.1%
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 1, 2023 22:29:21 GMT
Dedication to the cause John.
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 1, 2023 22:35:59 GMT
Sheffield Attercliffe 1909
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 22:47:24 GMT
Just because he can doesn’t mean he’s allowed to. I’m the Dictator of the World, so I make the rules. How are the armadilloes and frozen solid platypus? In cold storage, ready for when the balloon goes up
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