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Post by johnloony on Sept 1, 2023 22:49:35 GMT
Sheffield Attercliffe 1909 Oh! I must have missed that one as I was skimming through
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 2, 2023 0:25:50 GMT
The LDs appear to have drifted out quite a bit on the betting exchanges and are no longer odds on to win. Any information or a poll to explain this?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 2, 2023 5:16:18 GMT
Can I introduce you to my wife? I don't know, you'd better ask her.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2023 9:49:10 GMT
I remember this guy from my Milton Keynes North days. He was nice enough, but I wouldn’t buy a used car from him.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2023 10:28:21 GMT
Lib Dem desperation to write themselves into the story of the Mid Bedfordshire byelection continues: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397The seat has been vacant less than a week and there's no indication the Conservatives intend to delay it (nor any incentive for them to do so), but the Lib Dems have to be part of the story.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 2, 2023 10:37:55 GMT
I remember this guy from my Milton Keynes North days. He was nice enough, but I wouldn’t buy a used car from him. Every day and in every way the Conservative Party seem to be developing their Death Wish! Did they not think holding Mid Bedfordshire would be difficult enough?
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 2, 2023 10:38:40 GMT
Lib Dem desperation to write themselves into the story of the Mid Bedfordshire byelection continues: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397The seat has been vacant less than a week and there's no indication the Conservatives intend to delay it (nor any incentive for them to do so), but the Lib Dems have to be part of the story. That would backfire on the LDs were the Government to use its majority to defeat any motion tabled.Were that to occur, the writ could not be moved again during the current session.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Sept 2, 2023 10:40:04 GMT
We really don’t expect to win this one… Who's we? I ask because a lot of Lib Dems seem to assume they're the natural challenger. Are you referring to a particular subset of Lib Dems (eg staff, people who've actually campaigned in the seat, something else?) A lot of Liberal Democrats think they are the natural challengers in almost every by election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2023 10:41:16 GMT
It is generally agreed the earliest practicable date is October 5th, which is widely expected to be when Rutherglen goes to the polls.
That would certainly suit Labour, and possibly the Tories too on the "get it all out of the way in one go" principle.
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 2, 2023 11:03:41 GMT
Who's we? I ask because a lot of Lib Dems seem to assume they're the natural challenger. Are you referring to a particular subset of Lib Dems (eg staff, people who've actually campaigned in the seat, something else?) A lot of Liberal Democrats think they are the natural challengers in almost every by election. This is so obviously rubbish - I give you Selby, Hartlepool and Uxbridge as three obvious examples to the contrary. The Lib Dems thrive on effective targeting, which requires a degree of self-reflection on what is, and is not, possible. Mid Beds poses a challenge precisely because it is not clear which of Labour or the Lib Dems is best placed to challenge the Tories…
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2023 11:17:54 GMT
Lib Dem desperation to write themselves into the story of the Mid Bedfordshire byelection continues: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397The seat has been vacant less than a week and there's no indication the Conservatives intend to delay it (nor any incentive for them to do so), but the Lib Dems have to be part of the story. That would backfire on the LDs were the Government to use its majority to defeat any motion tabled.Were that to occur, the writ could not be moved again during the current session. That's why the usual method used to stop unwelcome attempts to move a byelection writ is a procedural motion to move to next business.
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 2, 2023 11:32:16 GMT
A lot of Liberal Democrats think they are the natural challengers in almost every by election. This is so obviously rubbish - I give you Selby, Hartlepool and Uxbridge as three obvious examples to the contrary. The Lib Dems thrive on effective targeting, which requires a degree of self-reflection on what is, and is not, possible. Mid Beds poses a challenge precisely because it is not clear which of Labour or the Lib Dems is best placed to challenge the Tories… Were Shropshire North now becoming vacant I suspect Labour would be fighting the seat very seriously.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 2, 2023 12:01:49 GMT
There are of course factors to consider other than the previous election result i.e. local representation, more historical elections but nevertheless the Lib Dems can create some doubt with how they became the main challengers in North Shropshire and Tiverton despite Labour being 2nd in 2019 for both of them, in North Shropshire’s case considerably ahead of the Lib Dems in 3rd
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 2, 2023 12:08:50 GMT
There are of course factors to consider other than the previous election result i.e. local representation, more historical elections but nevertheless the Lib Dems can create some doubt with how they became the main challengers in North Shropshire and Tiverton despite Labour being 2nd in 2019 for both of them, in North Shropshire’s case considerably ahead of the Lib Dems in 3rd Indeed . I suspect that Labour's stronger national polling would have changed the dynamics in the North Shropshire contest had it taken place within the last year or so.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 2, 2023 12:21:21 GMT
The Times has an article about Mid Bedfordshire today and found a couple who would vote Labour ‘ because they are not the Conservatives. I’d like to vote for the Liberal Democrats but I think that will split the vote and I don’t want the Tories in so it’s a negative vote’
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2023 13:31:52 GMT
Another example of an absurd and anachronistic system - traditional betting odds. I think the limited scale is bad for both parties, and the drop in use of certain ones (100/6, 29/10, 22/5 for example) appears to be solely designed to rip off punters because it has happened solely to help the overround. I'm not advocating a return to SPs based on tote returns despite the accuracy of them (249/10 at Auteuil yesterday) but it is worth considering why we use fractionals here in the UK and the reluctance of punters to move away from them in most cases. It's also worth noting that fractionals are 'positive' and don't require punters to mentally calculate something based on a 'negative price' as can be the case with, eg, Malay or Indonesian odds. The information is right in front of them and they only have to look at one side of the divider. You don't get that with moneyline or Hong Kong either. Fractions also allow punters to spot value more quickly, although this only works with bookies rather than an exchange. Additionally we should consider that the syndicates use fractions if the stake is not a standard number of points: that the big boys use them gives their use some weight. In sum, you may think fractionals are absurd or anachronistic. You aren't necessarily wrong but it is worth looking at this in the round: each of the main systems- be it moneyline, fractions, decimals, Malay, Indo or HK- has flaws. I compile my own tissue and use a variety of methods, sometimes including tote/parimutel estimates, for pricing but always return to fractions when looking for value. This isn't a straightforward case of 'modern=good, traditional=bad' and it is misguided, at best, to take that position.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 2, 2023 14:12:23 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 2, 2023 17:03:56 GMT
Lib Dem desperation to write themselves into the story of the Mid Bedfordshire byelection continues: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397The seat has been vacant less than a week and there's no indication the Conservatives intend to delay it (nor any incentive for them to do so), but the Lib Dems have to be part of the story. That would backfire on the LDs were the Government to use its majority to defeat any motion tabled.Were that to occur, the writ could not be moved again during the current session. Can't they do: The Question is, That the Question, That the Question be not now put, be now put. And move the writ later?
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 2, 2023 17:21:59 GMT
Have spent the day here and the one thing that struck me was that considering the Lib Dems are supposedly the favourites to win, there’s a distinct lack of yellow “winning here” diamonds. Obviously shouldn’t make a prediction based on one day’s canvassing in one part of a constituency, but Chesham & Amersham this ain’t.
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Post by robert1 on Sept 2, 2023 18:10:33 GMT
Have spent the day here and the one thing that struck me was that considering the Lib Dems are supposedly the favourites to win, there’s a distinct lack of yellow “winning here” diamonds. Obviously shouldn’t make a prediction based on one day’s canvassing in one part of a constituency, but Chesham & Amersham this ain’t. I was there Wednesday. Both on my observation and comments from others, despite very few, Labour are ahead on posters.
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