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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 14:33:36 GMT
Littleborough and Saddleworth, anyone? But perhaps with Lab/LDs swapped in that the 'expected' (i.e. previously 2nd place party) makes a modest increase (though here unlike L&S that does mean a large increase for Labour) but there is a big surge in the currently 3rd place party who comes come a close second. Looking at all the reports of Little & Sad, it appears it was the Labour surge (certainly a double digit percentage increase) into 2nd that was the surprise, and less so the LD victory, which was half-expected. The thing is though looking at Shropshire, and Tiverton, the LDs have been pretty good at breaking the 'convention' that any Tory-held seat should be 'owed' to the previously 2nd placed Labour. But it appears this time Labour aren't having any of that. Littleborough & Saddleworth Perth & Kinross Eastleigh (1994) Brecon & Radnor (1985) My theory is that from 1993 onwards, the Conservative Party was so unpopular that the voters (collectively, not necessarily individually) realised that they did not need to vote "tactically" to ensure a Conservative defeat. So those who preferred Labour rather than Lib Dem decided to vote Labour anyway, even if Lib Dem was ostensibly the main challenger in 2nd place. (And vice-versa). My second-level theory is that tactical voting doubled in on itself, so people voted Labour *because* Labour was only in 3rd place. In other words, the voters decided (collectively) that it was worse for the Conservative Party to go into 3rd place, and be defeated by a split vote, than to be defeated by a large margin but still only going down into 2nd place.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 14:36:13 GMT
(b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. They may well choose to (fairly) blame the new Conservative candidate for the government being rubbish. That is fair enough. But logically it is not fair if some voters - who might have wanted to vote Conservative anyway - decide not to just because they are annoyed with Nadine Dorries being rubbish. There are likely to be many people (perhaps many thousands of people) who don't think that the Conservative government is rubbish, but who hate Nadine Dorries. I hope they won't take it out on the new Conservative candidate.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 27, 2023 14:39:25 GMT
They may well choose to (fairly) blame the new Conservative candidate for the government being rubbish. That is fair enough. But logically it is not fair if some voters - who might have wanted to vote Conservative anyway - decide not to just because they are annoyed with Nadine Dorries being rubbish. There are likely to be many people (perhaps many thousands of people) who don't think that the Conservative government is rubbish, but who hate Nadine Dorries. I hope they won't take it out on the new Conservative candidate.She has endorsed him though. He probably would have preferred not being endorsed by her more than anyone.
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Post by bigfatron on Aug 27, 2023 14:49:35 GMT
They may well choose to (fairly) blame the new Conservative candidate for the government being rubbish. That is fair enough. But logically it is not fair if some voters - who might have wanted to vote Conservative anyway - decide not to just because they are annoyed with Nadine Dorries being rubbish. There are likely to be many people (perhaps many thousands of people) who don't think that the Conservative government is rubbish, but who hate Nadine Dorries. I hope they won't take it out on the new Conservative candidate. Perhaps they will simply take the view that, despite being the usual depository for their votes, since 2015 the Tories have been pretty rubbish collectively and punish them accordingly…
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 27, 2023 14:51:16 GMT
They may well choose to (fairly) blame the new Conservative candidate for the government being rubbish. That is fair enough. But logically it is not fair if some voters - who might have wanted to vote Conservative anyway - decide not to just because they are annoyed with Nadine Dorries being rubbish. There are likely to be many people (perhaps many thousands of people) who don't think that the Conservative government is rubbish, but who hate Nadine Dorries. I hope they won't take it out on the new Conservative candidate. This idea of fairness having anything to do with how people decide to use their vote is a novel concept and not one that I expect to catch on. The electorate is entirely unfair and often down right vindictive.
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Post by where2travel on Aug 27, 2023 15:12:44 GMT
Many thousands of Conservative voters will stay at home, enough to ensure their defeat. Some votes will obviously transfer, but I have no idea who the winner will be.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 15:18:07 GMT
That is fair enough. But logically it is not fair if some voters - who might have wanted to vote Conservative anyway - decide not to just because they are annoyed with Nadine Dorries being rubbish. There are likely to be many people (perhaps many thousands of people) who don't think that the Conservative government is rubbish, but who hate Nadine Dorries. I hope they won't take it out on the new Conservative candidate.She has endorsed him though. Oh dear! Flinging dollops of dung at both of them (like in the Cultural Revolution) might come back into fashion.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 27, 2023 15:25:56 GMT
Compared to the 1992-97 by elections there is more evidence that Conservative voters have been sitting on their hands in the by elections in this parliament rather than switching to an alternative. In 1993 in Newbury and Christchurch, the LDs got 37590 and 33164 votes respectively. From those by elections the Lib Dems didn’t need to get any new voters to win the seat at the subsequent GE, retaining those voters would have been more than enough.
In this parliaments 4 Lib Dem’s gains they have got between 17000 and 23000 votes in each of their gains. Boundary changes cloud things a bit, but I doubt they will win any of those seats ( or their successors) with that number of votes at the GE. More Conservative voters have sat on their hands this time compared to the 1990s I suspect. Not to say that the Lib Dem’s can’t hold them but they will need new voters and the task is trickier.
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 16:09:48 GMT
Labour and the Lib Dems have both been campaigning a lot in the constituency, because Mad Nad helpfully gave them advance notice of the by-election happening. Judging by previous results (parliamentary and from local elections), both have a reasonable chance to get substantial shares of the vote. So there is the potential for a 1990s-style result in which Labour and Lib Dem compete to win, they split the vote, and the Conservative candidate comes 3rd. I would hope that it means that the Conservative would come 1st for the same reason. We are yet to see if (a) the campaign will swing in momentum to one clear challenger, rather than split (b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. Either way it's more interesting than an average by-election. Littleborough and Saddleworth, anyone? But perhaps with Lab/LDs swapped in that the 'expected' (i.e. previously 2nd place party) makes a modest increase (though here unlike L&S that does mean a large increase for Labour) but there is a big surge in the currently 3rd place party who comes come a close second. Looking at all the reports of Little & Sad, it appears it was the Labour surge (certainly a double digit percentage increase) into 2nd that was the surprise, and less so the LD victory, which was half-expected. The thing is though looking at Shropshire, and Tiverton, the LDs have been pretty good at breaking the 'convention' that any Tory-held seat should be 'owed' to the previously 2nd placed Labour. But it appears this time Labour aren't having any of that. Perhaps Selby and Ainsty is a better guide to what might happen here.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 27, 2023 17:48:29 GMT
I have to think there's a good chance this by-election will break the record of the lowest winning percentage in any by-election (the record is currently 29.98%, set in 1946). Disaffected Conservative voters are likely to go for the independent candidate too, and whilst Reform doesn't have a chance at winning, they could quite feasibly retain their deposit.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 27, 2023 17:50:15 GMT
Littleborough and Saddleworth, anyone? But perhaps with Lab/LDs swapped in that the 'expected' (i.e. previously 2nd place party) makes a modest increase (though here unlike L&S that does mean a large increase for Labour) but there is a big surge in the currently 3rd place party who comes come a close second. Looking at all the reports of Little & Sad, it appears it was the Labour surge (certainly a double digit percentage increase) into 2nd that was the surprise, and less so the LD victory, which was half-expected. The thing is though looking at Shropshire, and Tiverton, the LDs have been pretty good at breaking the 'convention' that any Tory-held seat should be 'owed' to the previously 2nd placed Labour. But it appears this time Labour aren't having any of that. Perhaps Selby and Ainsty is a better guide to what might happen here. Yes and no because the LDs didn't seem to try there at all and lost their deposit. It's clear that they are trying hard here with all their missing posters and whatnot. In any case it's unlikely that either Labour or LDs will be losing their deposit, add to that a non-zero chance that independents/Green may also keep their deposit. Labour did seem to put in a token effort in Shropshire but that seemed to fizzle out, though they kept their deposit in the end - fortunately it didn't make too much difference, but could make all the difference here.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 27, 2023 18:04:48 GMT
Perhaps Selby and Ainsty is a better guide to what might happen here. Yes and no because the LDs didn't seem to try there at all and lost their deposit. It's clear that they are trying hard here with all their missing posters and whatnot. In any case it's unlikely that either Labour or LDs will be losing their deposit, add to that a non-zero chance that independents/Green may also keep their deposit. Labour did seem to put in a token effort in Shropshire but that seemed to fizzle out, though they kept their deposit in the end - fortunately it didn't make too much difference, but could make all the difference here. Which seemed to come after polling in the other by-election (Chislehurst?) shortly before. And which rather imperilled ideas of mutual co-operation in such instances.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 27, 2023 18:06:29 GMT
Assuming: 1. That she actually intends to resign 2. That being so, that she is dragging this out to seriously disadvantage the Tory candidate 3. That she wishes to maximise harm to Sunak When would be her optimum time actually to resign? Sunak’s conference speech on 4 October perhaps? Could it be that Sunak has done a deal with her? He seems to have squashed the Borisites' rebellion after that weekend when we thought there could be dozens of resignations. All she wants is a peerage. Sunak probably knows he's going to be an ex Prime Minister next year so has he offered her ermine in his resignation honours on the basis she carries on until the next election? Posts which did not age well #273.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 27, 2023 19:09:04 GMT
By-elections that match Mid Bedfordshire (Conservative win with little between Lab and Lib Dem, in either order)
Newark (June 2014): Con HOLD Bromley and Chislehurst (June 2006): Con HOLD Monmouth (May 1991): Lab GAIN from Con Staffordshire Mid (June 1989): Lab GAIN from Con Epping Forest (November 1988): Con HOLD Brecon and Radnor (July 1985): Lib/All GAIN from Con Portsmouth South (June 1984): SDP/All GAIN from Con Stafford (May 1984): Con HOLD
Of all the by-elections Sunak is or will face, this is the one he will be looking at carefully to see how is the stronger opposition. If the Lib Dems win, then he knows that Labour is having trouble with the commuter belt and therefore he has a chance of winning (largest party in a hung Parliament), if Labour win, then all plans for May 2024 are on ice and we are looking at January 2025.
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Post by gibbon on Aug 27, 2023 19:27:21 GMT
I remember delivering leaflets in Littleborough and Saddleworth. I went to one where it was clear that the occupants had gone away on holiday during the campaign. There must have been about a hundred leaflets from all partieswaiting for them on their return.
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Post by gibbon on Aug 27, 2023 19:29:52 GMT
If Reform stand in the bye-election what are the chances that Dorries will endorse them? How would that affect the Conservative vote?
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 19:33:47 GMT
If Reform stand in the bye-election what are the chances that Dorries will endorse them? How would that affect the Conservative vote? She's already endorsed her designated Conservative successor.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 19:36:33 GMT
I remember delivering leaflets in Littleborough and Saddleworth. I went to one where it was clear that the occupants had gone away on holiday during the campaign. There must have been about a hundred leaflets from all partieswaiting for them on their return. I bet they were delighted.
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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2023 20:13:04 GMT
By-elections that match Mid Bedfordshire (Conservative win with little between Lab and Lib Dem, in either order) Newark (June 2014): Con HOLD Bromley and Chislehurst (June 2006): Con HOLD Monmouth (May 1991): Lab GAIN from Con Staffordshire Mid (June 1989): Lab GAIN from Con Epping Forest (November 1988): Con HOLD Brecon and Radnor (July 1985): Lib/All GAIN from Con Portsmouth South (June 1984): SDP/All GAIN from Con Stafford (May 1984): Con HOLD Of all the by-elections Sunak is or will face, this is the one he will be looking at carefully to see how is the stronger opposition. If the Lib Dems win, then he knows that Labour is having trouble with the commuter belt and therefore he has a chance of winning (largest party in a hung Parliament), if Labour win, then all plans for May 2024 are on ice and we are looking at January 2025. Mid-Staffordshire was in 1990 and you are completely incorrect that the Labour & Lib Dem votes were close together. Check the result on Wikipedia & you will see what I mean. I haven't looked at most of the others.
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 20:18:25 GMT
By-elections that match Mid Bedfordshire (Conservative win with little between Lab and Lib Dem, in either order) Newark (June 2014): Con HOLD Bromley and Chislehurst (June 2006): Con HOLD Monmouth (May 1991): Lab GAIN from Con Staffordshire Mid (June 1989): Lab GAIN from Con Epping Forest (November 1988): Con HOLD Brecon and Radnor (July 1985): Lib/All GAIN from Con Portsmouth South (June 1984): SDP/All GAIN from Con Stafford (May 1984): Con HOLD Of all the by-elections Sunak is or will face, this is the one he will be looking at carefully to see how is the stronger opposition. If the Lib Dems win, then he knows that Labour is having trouble with the commuter belt and therefore he has a chance of winning (largest party in a hung Parliament), if Labour win, then all plans for May 2024 are on ice and we are looking at January 2025. January 2025 is unlikely to be a serious option whatever happens at this by election. Realistically October/November 2024 are likely to be the latest GE dates.
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