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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2023 21:23:09 GMT
I'd like to think you're right, but plenty of people think he will leave it until the last possible minute whatever the inconvenience involved.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 21:31:25 GMT
I have to think there's a good chance this by-election will break the record of the lowest winning percentage in any by-election (the record is currently 29.98%, set in 1946). Disaffected Conservative voters are likely to go for the independent candidate too, and whilst Reform doesn't have a chance at winning, they could quite feasibly retain their deposit. That sort of result would depend on the Independent candidate (a) getting a substantial percentage of the votes (b) taking votes mostly from people who would otherwise vote Conservative, and not from Labour or Lib Dem. What reasons do we have to suppose that either of those things will happen? Even if Gareth Mackey has got a large amount of support in local elections, and a large group of local councillors, why would that support translate into votes in a parliamentary election (when they haven’t already done so previously)? What sort of ideological position (left, right, whatever) does this Independent group have? There are loads of places where people vote Independent in local elections, but then vote for the normal parties at parliamentary elections. Why is this one suddenly going to be different? (Incidentally, that by-election in 1946 was in the Combined English Universities constituency, where there were 3 Independent candidates splatting the vote anyway. I wonder where/when the record low percentage was otherwise?)
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 27, 2023 21:35:36 GMT
Could it be that Sunak has done a deal with her? He seems to have squashed the Borisites' rebellion after that weekend when we thought there could be dozens of resignations. All she wants is a peerage. Sunak probably knows he's going to be an ex Prime Minister next year so has he offered her ermine in his resignation honours on the basis she carries on until the next election? Posts which did not age well #273. Ha ha! Indeed. But we still don't know if she actually has notified the Treasury.
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Post by monksfield on Aug 28, 2023 6:55:39 GMT
Labour and the Lib Dems have both been campaigning a lot in the constituency, because Mad Nad helpfully gave them advance notice of the by-election happening. Judging by previous results (parliamentary and from local elections), both have a reasonable chance to get substantial shares of the vote. So there is the potential for a 1990s-style result in which Labour and Lib Dem compete to win, they split the vote, and the Conservative candidate comes 3rd. I would hope that it means that the Conservative would come 1st for the same reason. We are yet to see if (a) the campaign will swing in momentum to one clear challenger, rather than split (b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. Either way it's more interesting than an average by-election. What they would be doing is punishing the Tory party for tolerating, nay indulging, and over-promoting a grunt like Dorries who was truly never fit for high office. And who has basically taken the pay for a job she hasn’t been doing for over a year.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 28, 2023 8:11:58 GMT
(Incidentally, that by-election in 1946 was in the Combined English Universities constituency, where there were 3 Independent candidates splatting the vote anyway. I wonder where/when the record low percentage was otherwise?) Other than that it was the 2019 Peterborough by-election, which Lisa Forbes (Labour) won with 30.91%.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Aug 28, 2023 9:06:07 GMT
Any chance of a poll for this thread once the candidates are all announced?
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Post by robert1 on Aug 28, 2023 14:46:33 GMT
Since, the by-election has not yet been called, contrary to what some broadcasters would have us believe, it will be sometime before we have a full list of candidates. Oddly Nadine's word is not adequate to initiate a by-election. What odds on both Rutherglen and Mid Beds being on the same day?
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 28, 2023 15:35:17 GMT
Since, the by-election has not yet been called, contrary to what some broadcasters would have us believe, it will be sometime before we have a full list of candidates. Oddly Nadine's word is not adequate to initiate a by-election. What odds on both Rutherglen and Mid Beds being on the same day? Somebody said upthread that the writ needs to be moved by next tuesday for that to happen. It's not as if there's much relevance to Hamilton from a gov't spin pov so there's no real reason to force - or prevent - that particular date.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2023 16:07:57 GMT
Since, the by-election has not yet been called, contrary to what some broadcasters would have us believe, it will be sometime before we have a full list of candidates. Oddly Nadine's word is not adequate to initiate a by-election. What odds on both Rutherglen and Mid Beds being on the same day? Somebody said upthread that the writ needs to be moved by next tuesday for that to happen. It's not as if there's much relevance to Hamilton from a gov't spin pov so there's no real reason to force - or prevent - that particular date. Given the likelihood of a tactical unionist squeeze and the government's unpopularity, it's possible (though not probable) that the Conservatives might lose their deposit in Rutherglen. So combining it means there's either better news or all the bad news is packaged together.
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 28, 2023 20:35:30 GMT
Somebody said upthread that the writ needs to be moved by next tuesday for that to happen. It's not as if there's much relevance to Hamilton from a gov't spin pov so there's no real reason to force - or prevent - that particular date. Given the likelihood of a tactical unionist squeeze and the government's unpopularity, it's possible (though not probable) that the Conservatives might lose their deposit in Rutherglen. So combining it means there's either better news or all the bad news is packaged together. And of course there's the potential for two Labour gains but I said 'not much', not 'no'. Maybe 'considerably less than if it was two Tory-held seats' was all I meant.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Aug 28, 2023 20:47:07 GMT
A by election is likely at Tamworth within a few months , and it may suit the Tories to combine that with Mid Bedfordshire. By no means impossible that writs will be moved in December for two by elections in mid- January.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 28, 2023 20:58:16 GMT
A by election is likely at Tamworth within a few months , and it may suit the Tories to combine that with Mid Bedfordshire. By no means impossible that writs will be moved in December for two by elections in mid- January. You may be right, and it will be a way of reducing the "Tories losing" bad news, but it would almost certainly guarantee a loss fort hem in Mid-Beds, rather than making it a three-way marginal, as the voters already feel they have been taken for a ride by the sitting MP, they will feel the Government cares more about themselves than Mid-Beds.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Aug 29, 2023 9:00:32 GMT
She got the job!
Dear Nadine I am writing to confirm that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has this morning appointed you to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern. Your appointment continues until determined by a subsequent appointment to this Stewardship. I will inform the Speaker of the House of Commons next. Best wishes…
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 29, 2023 9:03:34 GMT
She got the job! Dear Nadine I am writing to confirm that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has this morning appointed you to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern. Your appointment continues until determined by a subsequent appointment to this Stewardship. I will inform the Speaker of the House of Commons next. Best wishes… "Please never come back here again."
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 29, 2023 9:08:25 GMT
She got the job! Dear Nadine I am writing to confirm that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has this morning appointed you to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern. Your appointment continues until determined by a subsequent appointment to this Stewardship. I will inform the Speaker of the House of Commons next. Best wishes… "Please never come back here again." What has ricmk done to make you say that to him?
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Post by greenhert on Aug 29, 2023 15:10:04 GMT
"Please never come back here again." What has ricmk done to make you say that to him? That quote was directed at Nadine Dorries, not any member of this forum.
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 29, 2023 15:14:29 GMT
What has ricmk done to make you say that to him? That quote was directed at Nadine Dorries, not any member of this forum. I think it was just a joke.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2023 15:42:20 GMT
What has ricmk done to make you say that to him? That quote was directed at Nadine Dorries, not any member of this forum. 'May Lourds Ladiss and Gennel'men, Pray silence for the gaallent Capt Obvious who wishes to make an important observation. After which he wishes to tek wein with the Doctor.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 29, 2023 16:07:26 GMT
That quote was directed at Nadine Dorries, not any member of this forum. 'May Lourds Ladiss and Gennel'men, Pray silence for the gaallent Capt Obvious who wishes to make an important observation. After which he wishes to tek wein with the Doctor. Laugh out loud
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2023 17:01:21 GMT
Y’know, I would consider this all worthwhile if she’s now appointed to the Lords and made Culture Secretary again. The reaction would be something to behold.
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