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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2023 8:46:17 GMT
Although Dorries has given the opposition parties a lot of ammunition, it may well be that she is not a respected enough source of such ammunition for it to be quite as useful to Labour & the Liberal Democrats as they might like.
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Post by monksfield on Aug 27, 2023 9:00:48 GMT
I expect the way she’s behaved for the last year or so will have been very well noticed by the electors of Mid Bedfordshire. They are the ones who matter.
For what it’s worth I think the LibDems should not be seen as the main challenger in this seat. Labour feels a better fit. So with the Lib Dems going in hard, there’s a real risk here of a 35/30/25/10 type split, with the Tories edging it.
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Post by bigfatron on Aug 27, 2023 9:13:04 GMT
My view is that both Lib Dems and Labour are entitled to go for this one - Labour start a bit higher but the Lib Dems tend to be able to access a broader range of voters. My gut feel is that the Tories are unlikely to hold this seat regardless - too many 2019 Tory voters will stay at home…
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 27, 2023 10:39:02 GMT
Hasn't Gina Miller told you all that her ego trip party is entitled to a free run?
They're standing Alan Victor BTW.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 10:44:14 GMT
Hasn't Gina Miller told you all that her ego trip party is entitled to a free run? They're standing Alan Victor BTW. "The voice of her that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the GINA, make straight in the desert a by election for our God".
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,297
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 10:51:46 GMT
Only if the writ gets moved on 4th or 5th September. I don't think that's right. The timetable for a Westminster by-election means that polling day is 21 to 27 working days after the moving of the writ. Assuming there are no Bank Holidays (true for the dates considered here) that means that for a given Thursday the latest the writ can be moved is the Wednesday four weeks and one day earlier, and the earliest it can be moved is the Tuesday five weeks and two days earlier. For Thursday 12 October that means the earliest day to move the writ would be Tuesday 5 September and the latest would be Wednesday 13 September, but if the writ is actually moved on Monday 4 September polling day will be 5 October. IIRC the SNP have already indicated that they will move the writ for Rutherglen & Hamilton West as soon as possible, so presumably aiming at 5 October as polling day. Were the writ moved on 4th September , I believe the Returning Officer will have some discretion in determining the by election date - ie either 5th or 12th October.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 27, 2023 10:59:46 GMT
I expect the way she’s behaved for the last year or so will have been very well noticed by the electors of Mid Bedfordshire. They are the ones who matter. For what it’s worth I think the LibDems should not be seen as the main challenger in this seat. Labour feels a better fit. So with the Lib Dems going in hard, there’s a real risk here of a 35/30/25/10 type split, with the Tories edging it. Definitely, since the Independent is likely to poll strongly. This will have echoes of the Richmond (Yorks) by-election in 1989, where (now Baron) William Hague held on due to heavily split opposition.
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 27, 2023 11:02:30 GMT
I expect the way she’s behaved for the last year or so will have been very well noticed by the electors of Mid Bedfordshire. They are the ones who matter. For what it’s worth I think the LibDems should not be seen as the main challenger in this seat. Labour feels a better fit. So with the Lib Dems going in hard, there’s a real risk here of a 35/30/25/10 type split, with the Tories edging it. This is my fear too. I dont want to see a repeat of what happened in 2019 in Wimbledon, Chipping Barnet and Cities of L&W, (just to name 3 seats in London!) whether the fairly even splitting of the vote let 3 Tory MPs in through the back door. At a by-election, not such a biggie! At a GE (if the polls tightened and itwere to get anything approaching close), it could be disastrous!
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Post by Wisconsin on Aug 27, 2023 11:15:34 GMT
At a by-election, not such a biggie! At a GE (if the polls tightened and itwere to get anything approaching close), it could be disastrous! Although if it did happen at this by-election, it would be a useful and timely reminder of the issue and would give more political room to avoid it happening at the General Election.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,866
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Post by YL on Aug 27, 2023 11:26:11 GMT
I don't think that's right. The timetable for a Westminster by-election means that polling day is 21 to 27 working days after the moving of the writ. Assuming there are no Bank Holidays (true for the dates considered here) that means that for a given Thursday the latest the writ can be moved is the Wednesday four weeks and one day earlier, and the earliest it can be moved is the Tuesday five weeks and two days earlier. For Thursday 12 October that means the earliest day to move the writ would be Tuesday 5 September and the latest would be Wednesday 13 September, but if the writ is actually moved on Monday 4 September polling day will be 5 October. IIRC the SNP have already indicated that they will move the writ for Rutherglen & Hamilton West as soon as possible, so presumably aiming at 5 October as polling day. Were the writ moved on 4th September , I believe the Returning Officer will have some discretion in determining the by election date - ie either 5th or 12th October. If the writ were issued (normally the same day that it is moved, but not necessarily) on 4 September (making that day 0), then 5 October would be day 23 and 12 October would be day 28, so I think it would then definitely be on 5 October, but if the writ were issued on 5 or 6 September the acting Returning Officer has discretion. See the PDF linked from commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06609/
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Aug 27, 2023 11:30:47 GMT
At a by-election, not such a biggie! At a GE (if the polls tightened and itwere to get anything approaching close), it could be disastrous! Although if it did happen at this by-election, it would be a useful and timely reminder of the issue and would give more political room to avoid it happening at the General Election. I actually wonder if it's useful for the LDs and Lab to have a face-off now? I wouldn't have chosen it, but it makes it harder for the Tories to claim the parties are hand in hand "cheating the system against us" and as Wisconsin says, it might focus some minds about tactical voting at the GE that really matters, as well as shatter someone's delusions about where they can win (remains to see whose.) My guess is that it will be pretty clear before polling day who the prime challenger really is.
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 27, 2023 11:46:43 GMT
Even before the vacancy occurs, this thread is already longer than the threads for the by-elections in Uxbridge & Selby or Ainsty & South Ruislip. Since when were there by-elections in Uxbridge & Selby and Ainsty & South Ruislip?? Are BCE being silly again?? Oops I missed the joke, sorry!!
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 27, 2023 12:09:58 GMT
Although if it did happen at this by-election, it would be a useful and timely reminder of the issue and would give more political room to avoid it happening at the General Election. I actually wonder if it's useful for the LDs and Lab to have a face-off now? I wouldn't have chosen it, but it makes it harder for the Tories to claim the parties are hand in hand "cheating the system against us" and as Wisconsin says, it might focus some minds about tactical voting at the GE that really matters, as well as shatter someone's delusions about where they can win (remains to see whose.) My guess is that it will be pretty clear before polling day who the prime challenger really is. The contest is the by-election. The by-election takes place very soon. Fight the election on your party agenda as that interfaces with the nation and the constituency. Always do that. Ignore the other parties and their agendas. Ignore petty point scoring, positioning and grandstanding. Ignore all forms of pacts, understandings and tactical moves against another party or to aid another party. Be serious in intent and always try to win. If fairly sure a win is not possible this time, opt for an improved 2nd place or 3rd place or 4th place. Never treat this as a jape, a game, an opportunity to stall Labour or stuff the Conservatives. They should not matter to you.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,476
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2023 12:12:46 GMT
Although Dorries has given the opposition parties a lot of ammunition, it may well be that she is not a respected enough source of such ammunition for it to be quite as useful to Labour & the Liberal Democrats as they might like. It maybe works both ways, some could agree with the message even whilst disdaining the messenger.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 27, 2023 12:22:52 GMT
I expect the way she’s behaved for the last year or so will have been very well noticed by the electors of Mid Bedfordshire. They are the ones who matter. For what it’s worth I think the LibDems should not be seen as the main challenger in this seat. Labour feels a better fit. So with the Lib Dems going in hard, there’s a real risk here of a 35/30/25/10 type split, with the Tories edging it. This is my fear too. I dont want to see a repeat of what happened in 2019 in Wimbledon, Chipping Barnet and Cities of L&W, (just to name 3 seats in London!) whether the fairly even splitting of the vote let 3 Tory MPs in through the back door. At a by-election, not such a biggie! At a GE (if the polls tightened and itwere to get anything approaching close), it could be disastrous! This is an appaling attitude of mind for someone supposedly a democrat? "... let three Tory MPs in through the back door ..."! What a nasty statement. The candidates stood on their agendas and fought their campaigns. It was a case of the most successful candidates winning. The winners got more votes and were entitled to win and to enter by the FRONT door. Any other view of it suggests that the anti-Conservative agenda must prevail and that it trumps democracy and the will of the people.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 27, 2023 12:52:35 GMT
I expect the way she’s behaved for the last year or so will have been very well noticed by the electors of Mid Bedfordshire. They are the ones who matter. For what it’s worth I think the LibDems should not be seen as the main challenger in this seat. Labour feels a better fit. So with the Lib Dems going in hard, there’s a real risk here of a 35/30/25/10 type split, with the Tories edging it. She tried to "do a Boris" and it backfired. And every report from the constituency shows what damage she's done. I wonder how much will transfer to the new candidate.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 14:05:18 GMT
6th June to 26th August = 81 days 6th September to 25th October = 49 days It's been quite the year. It is of course easy for me to remember the dates of the Truss premiership because 6th September and 25th October were both 2 days before 8th September and 27th October.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 27, 2023 14:18:21 GMT
Labour and the Lib Dems have both been campaigning a lot in the constituency, because Mad Nad helpfully gave them advance notice of the by-election happening. Judging by previous results (parliamentary and from local elections), both have a reasonable chance to get substantial shares of the vote. So there is the potential for a 1990s-style result in which Labour and Lib Dem compete to win, they split the vote, and the Conservative candidate comes 3rd. I would hope that it means that the Conservative would come 1st for the same reason.
We are yet to see if (a) the campaign will swing in momentum to one clear challenger, rather than split (b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. Either way it's more interesting than an average by-election.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,579
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 27, 2023 14:26:19 GMT
Labour and the Lib Dems have both been campaigning a lot in the constituency, because Mad Nad helpfully gave them advance notice of the by-election happening. Judging by previous results (parliamentary and from local elections), both have a reasonable chance to get substantial shares of the vote. So there is the potential for a 1990s-style result in which Labour and Lib Dem compete to win, they split the vote, and the Conservative candidate comes 3rd. I would hope that it means that the Conservative would come 1st for the same reason. We are yet to see if (a) the campaign will swing in momentum to one clear challenger, rather than split (b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. Either way it's more interesting than an average by-election. Littleborough and Saddleworth, anyone? But perhaps with Lab/LDs swapped in that the 'expected' (i.e. previously 2nd place party) makes a modest increase (though here unlike L&S that does mean a large increase for Labour) but there is a big surge in the currently 3rd place party who comes come a close second. Looking at all the reports of Little & Sad, it appears it was the Labour surge (certainly a double digit percentage increase) into 2nd that was the surprise, and less so the LD victory, which was half-expected. The thing is though looking at Shropshire, and Tiverton, the LDs have been pretty good at breaking the 'convention' that any Tory-held seat should be 'owed' to the previously 2nd placed Labour. But it appears this time Labour aren't having any of that.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 27, 2023 14:31:19 GMT
(b) whether the voters will want (unfairly) to blame the new Conservative candidate for Nadine Dorries being rubbish. They may well choose to (fairly) blame the new Conservative candidate for the government being rubbish.
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