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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 21, 2023 18:14:48 GMT
But we know that certain seats are so rock solid red or blue that even absent MPs can be assured of almost guaranteed re-election. This is why Recall is such a powerful tool. If you're an MP just for the money and f--- the voters must have a tool to fight against MPs who don't pull their weight. We don't live in the era of Baronets having liquid lunches all day and never visiting constituency offices. At the 2001 general election Blaenau Gwent was Labour's safest seat in Wales and their fifth safest seat in the UK as a whole with a majority of over 19,000. At the 2005 general election they lost the seat by over 9,000 votes. Moral of the story, the safeness of a seat is entirely within the gift of the electorate. Tatton and Solihull also spring to mind as seats which were incredibly safe but were lost in recent memory due to really bad incumbents.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 21, 2023 18:49:29 GMT
If an MP needs a second job, they're likely a rubbish MP. I very much regret to report that every scrap of historical evidence would suggest the contrary. An MP with highly paid outside interests is actually worth something whereas many full time MPs would find it very hard indeed to drive an income of even £50K outside the comfort zone of the HOC. Being an MP is not and must never be 'a job'. It is a duty to be performed by those properly qualified and who bring useful talents to the role. It is not about being a party placeman, being lobby fodder, attending lots of debates and asking damn fool questions. It is about bringing in experience gained at the profession or other work, deploying erudition and intellect to abstruse problems. It should not be in any way related to the electors or their pettifogging lives. The MP is NOT a wet nurse, a case worker, an advocate for problems, a helper, a carer or facilitator. He is elected to serve as a legislator and scrutineer and a check on the conduct of government, in place of personal involvement by those electors. He owes them nothing other than diligence on that confined role of legislator.
It would probably benefit society if all people had to do more than one job, and in different sectors too.
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Post by batman on Aug 21, 2023 19:43:32 GMT
it wouldn't benefit those of us who don't have what it takes to do more than one job.
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Post by batman on Aug 21, 2023 19:44:31 GMT
Having said that, I did earn £800 for a week's musical work not long ago, on top of my usual work. But I couldn't do it more than very occasionally, I'm too old for that level of work.
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 21, 2023 20:45:06 GMT
Famously turned up for the session that voted no confidence in the Callaghan government so he could "abstain in person". Otherwise attended rarely because his wife didn't want him being in London "with all those bombs going off" 😂 He owned a pub and refused to criticise the IRA as he believed if he did they'd blow his pub up according to Gerry Fitt in the BBC documentary "The Night the Government Fell" on the 1979 no confidence vote. Used to be paid by the Labour whips with cases of Whisky for the few times he did vote in the House .
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 21, 2023 21:31:28 GMT
But we know that certain seats are so rock solid red or blue that even absent MPs can be assured of almost guaranteed re-election. This is why Recall is such a powerful tool. If you're an MP just for the money and f--- the voters must have a tool to fight against MPs who don't pull their weight. We don't live in the era of Baronets having liquid lunches all day and never visiting constituency offices. No, but we do live in the age of pig ignorant women MPs who do all that you require but do not serve any of the core purposes of what an MP should be because they don't have the brains, the experience or the erudition to do any of it. This is not one sided. The 'defence' of the electorate is to take a damn side closer interest in the selection and election of their MP; not to wake up after the event and bemoan that they have a Dorries or much worse an O'Mara. Were you shouting the odds about him and trying to get him unseated? I don't recall that.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 21, 2023 22:10:13 GMT
By definition and anecdote, an MPs work is never "done". I'm sure they have casework by the barrowload to attend to, so if they wanted to work more they could start on their backlog rather than working elsewhere. if they have - exceptionally - dealt with ALL their constituencies queries, then they could hold more surgeries, attend more local events etc etc. I'm sure there are a million other ways an MP could be a true representative of their constituency if they were 100% committed to it and their role. Of course, they could still choose to work elsewhere, this helps resolve the thorny debate of whether MPs should have 2nd jobs at all - but there's the rub. Generally agree with the idea on principle given that it is taxpayers money and not a private company, and so if they are so obviously visibly not doing the job the public pays them to do then there should be consequences (or discouragement), exactly what I don’t know. However on the point of ‘casework by the barrowload’ this probably isn’t equal and probably where safe Tory MPs are at an advantage (hence why they are top of the outside earnings leaderboard). Take John Redwood who is near the top of that list, but isn’t Wokingham also one of the least deprived areas in the country. I don’t envisage much difficult casework there which is why he can ‘take advantage’ of what I imagine to be a fairly easy constituency duty (though his majority was dented due to Brexit I imagine). There will not be many benefits, council housing or immigration issues, no regeneration needed, no funding to fight for, or other major local issues save for a pothole here and there affecting somebody’s Rolls Royce and turning up to some Woky village ‘fete’. It also isn’t a very rural area either so not blighted by some of the challenges facing rural Britain be it sewage or agricultural issues, and no tourism either (unlike say Windsor). On the other hand there can be somewhere like Blackley and Broughton, a small area in size, but with many very difficult areas, challenging issues and hugely diverse types of populations and I would not be surprised if there was casework by the barrowload there, probably why Stringer has largely remained a backbencher, not becoming a national figure despite being a former council leader. Despite his odd views on some things he seems to be known for keeping a low profile but dealing with these cases locally.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 5:47:22 GMT
Given Nadine's absenteeism (allegedly closing her Shefford constituency office 10+ years ago), the Tory vote would drop like a stone here IMO. It could be Sunak's Eastleigh 1994 or Littleborough & Saddleworth 1995 (i.e. the Tories could fall to third in a by-election here).
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Aug 22, 2023 6:10:44 GMT
I really doubt they'd fall to third. I think this is one of the few constituencies they might actually win in a by-election in current circumstances
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Post by batman on Aug 22, 2023 6:19:46 GMT
They ought to but the circumstances of the by-election are amongst the worst possible for the incumbent party.
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Post by matureleft on Aug 22, 2023 7:20:23 GMT
Assuming: 1. That she actually intends to resign 2. That being so, that she is dragging this out to seriously disadvantage the Tory candidate 3. That she wishes to maximise harm to Sunak
When would be her optimum time actually to resign? Sunak’s conference speech on 4 October perhaps?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 8:39:59 GMT
Still, with the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and a possible Indy challenge, the winner wouldn't need a high %.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 22, 2023 9:00:53 GMT
Still, with the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and a possible Indy challenge, the winner wouldn't need a high %. Might Bedford Mayor Tom Wootton run? He's good at winning Bedfordshire elections. No. He's a Tory and the Tories have already got a candidate.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 10:23:31 GMT
Still, with the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and a possible Indy challenge, the winner wouldn't need a high %. Might Bedford Mayor Tom Wootton run? He's good at winning Bedfordshire elections. No. He's a Tory and the Tories have already got a candidate. Edited. I was thinking about him as a potential Tory candidate, but obviously they already have one. I stand by the point about this being a potential three- or four-way fight.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 22, 2023 13:23:22 GMT
At 40 pages this by-election (which might not happen) is longer than, to give a rough guide, Uxbridge and South Ruislip (31), Selby and Ainsty (29), West Lancashire (24), Southend West (25), Newport West (30), and Mid Ulster (16)
It's now targeting such discussions as Tiverton and Honiton (44), Richmond Park (46), and Rochester and Strood (47).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 13:41:56 GMT
Apply the 1994 Eastleigh swing here, and you get:
CON 33.4%, LD 28.9%, LAB 28.5%
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Post by bigfatron on Aug 22, 2023 15:46:38 GMT
Apply the 1994 Eastleigh swing here, and you get: CON 33.4%, LD 28.9%, LAB 28.5%Which would be a right sickener...
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 22, 2023 16:46:01 GMT
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 22, 2023 16:53:27 GMT
Given Nadine's absenteeism (allegedly closing her Shefford constituency office 10+ years ago), the Tory vote would drop like a stone here IMO. It could be Sunak's Eastleigh 1994 or Littleborough & Saddleworth 1995 (i.e. the Tories could fall to third in a by-election here). The thing is though Uxbridge seemed to prove that the hopelessness of the outgoing MP doesn’t seem to negatively affect the incumbent party’s chances at the following by election as much as people think (yes I know ULEZ was an issue)… it is almost a ‘fresh start’ for all involved. Though I think in Selby the ‘pointlessness’ of the BE and the disappearing act of a previously local man (into Johnson’s backside) of the outgoing candidate probably was a major negative factor. As for Somerton, it seemed to be in line with what was expected, if anything not as big a swing as Tiverton, though Parish’s misdemeanour was somewhat more minor. Likewise positive personal votes for the previous MP don’t always translate to success for the incumbent party (Chesham).
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Post by batman on Aug 22, 2023 17:18:46 GMT
Although Johnson was not the most assiduous constituency MP known to mankind, his negligence was on nothing like the scale shown by Nadine Dorries.
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