The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,460
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2023 12:17:08 GMT
Certainly you shouldn't place too much trust in that one poll, but the specific arguments Pack advances are all quite weak Yes, this is a fair summary. The poll is not massively reliable, but does at least seem to indicate the LibDems haven't run away with it yet - contrary to some predictions.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 5, 2023 12:50:24 GMT
All the poll really says is that there are a lot of voters vaguely looking for a home for their votes. On past evidence many won’t bother to vote.
Labour conceding at this stage would certainly look a mistake. Dorries’s delay (intentionally one assumes) will allow opposing parties to test their support while the Tory will be constrained. That often favours the Lib Dems as they have a well-oiled by-election machine and they are the more comfortable home for discontented Tories in an area like this.
Mackey’s showing would suggest that Flitwick will be a major destination for campaigners.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 5, 2023 13:28:34 GMT
All the poll really says is that there are a lot of voters vaguely looking for a home for their votes. On past evidence many won’t bother to vote. Labour conceding at this stage would certainly look a mistake. Dorries’s delay (intentionally one assumes) will allow opposing parties to test their support while the Tory will be constrained. That often favours the Lib Dems as they have a well-oiled by-election machine and they are the more comfortable home for discontented Tories in an area like this. Mackey’s showing would suggest that Flitwick will be a major destination for campaigners. given Flitwick is 40 minutes from Kings Cross I think that makes it prime place for Campaign meets. Being 10 minutes from Luton and Beds can't hurt Labour either
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,566
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Post by ricmk on Jul 5, 2023 14:18:36 GMT
Certainly you shouldn't place too much trust in that one poll, but the specific arguments Pack advances are all quite weak Yes, this is a fair summary. The poll is not massively reliable, but does at least seem to indicate the LibDems haven't run away with it yet - contrary to some predictions. I sort of agree with that. The only people suggesting the Lib Dems would run away with it weren't Lib Dems. Or anyone who's seen many by-elections. There's no reason on Day 1 why the LDs should do better than anyone else on the ballot, but by picking up on the right issues and with a greater volume across the campaign, Lib Dems are experienced at picking up momentum and convincing many swing voters by the end. Sometimes that step of being the obvious 'not the incumbent' choice is straightforward, however much Labour people froth it was in North Shropshire. it clearly isn't in Mid Beds, leading to all the positioning we're seeing from all sides. What that poll does indicate, is that whoever can establish themselves as that principle opposition to the Tories in Mid Beds - and that's hotly contested three ways - is in a very good position to ultimately win. The early battle between red and yellow may be more important than the final one, if that poll is at all on the right lines.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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Post by graham on Jul 5, 2023 14:38:29 GMT
Yes, this is a fair summary. The poll is not massively reliable, but does at least seem to indicate the LibDems haven't run away with it yet - contrary to some predictions. I sort of agree with that. The only people suggesting the Lib Dems would run away with it weren't Lib Dems. Or anyone who's seen many by-elections. There's no reason on Day 1 why the LDs should do better than anyone else on the ballot, but by picking up on the right issues and with a greater volume across the campaign, Lib Dems are experienced at picking up momentum and convincing many swing voters by the end. Sometimes that step of being the obvious 'not the incumbent' choice is straightforward, however much Labour people froth it was in North Shropshire. it clearly isn't in Mid Beds, leading to all the positioning we're seeing from all sides. What that poll does indicate, is that whoever can establish themselves as that principle opposition to the Tories in Mid Beds - and that's hotly contested three ways - is in a very good position to ultimately win. The early battle between red and yellow may be more important than the final one, if that poll is at all on the right lines. Had the North Shropshire by election happened 6 - 12 months later, I suspect labour would have been a more serious contender similar to what appears to be the case now in Mid Beds.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 5, 2023 16:07:50 GMT
LD's just pack up shop and take the first trian to Somerton and Frome.
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 19:59:55 GMT
LD's just pack up shop and take the first trian to Somerton and Frome. presumably packed by Mark Pack
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skyep
Non-Aligned
Posts: 59
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Post by skyep on Jul 5, 2023 22:22:01 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 8, 2023 18:55:04 GMT
11%!
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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Post by graham on Jul 8, 2023 19:43:21 GMT
I don't believe that - Opinium had the Tories on 24% last week.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 8, 2023 20:48:45 GMT
I guess that the Sun has (probably deliberately) misinterpreted / misunderstood / misrepresented internal party canvassing returns. 11% of the electorate giving firm pledges that they will definitely vote Conservative, implies many more probables, loads of uncontacted, loads of undecided, lots of don’t knows. They are just hoping that their readers are stupid enough to think it’s a proper opinion poll.
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Post by batman on Jul 8, 2023 20:58:00 GMT
I really don't think that the Conservatives will poll anything remotely as low as that in the by-election, assuming it does finally happen. John & Graham are both right. Indeed, I still think the Tories have a decent shot at holding the seat.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 8, 2023 21:32:13 GMT
Yes, even in a by-election under difficult circumstances dropping to 11% in a safe seat would be extinction territory
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 8, 2023 21:43:37 GMT
I guess that the Sun has (probably deliberately) misinterpreted / misunderstood / misrepresented internal party canvassing returns. 11% of the electorate giving firm pledges that they will definitely vote Conservative, implies many more probables, loads of uncontacted, loads of undecided, lots of don’t knows. They are just hoping that their readers are stupid enough to think it’s a proper opinion poll. You may be right, but it would be interesting in itself if The Sun decided that it was in the business of representing the Conservatives as being in that sort of trouble. EDIT: reading the article, the fact that it gives no figures for other parties does rather support your interpretation.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 8, 2023 23:42:29 GMT
Yes, even in a by-election under difficult circumstances dropping to 11% in a safe seat would be extinction territory time for a rebellion you say?
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 9, 2023 8:35:15 GMT
I've just heard that the Labour constituency poll published in The Telegraph was conducted solely in the town of Flitwick, presumably so it would show Labour is a better light than a full constituency poll.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 9, 2023 8:55:43 GMT
I've just heard that the Labour constituency poll published in The Telegraph was conducted solely in the town of Flitwick, presumably so it would show Labour is a better light than a full constituency poll. And more to the point explains the unfeasibly large vote share for the Independent
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,460
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2023 9:25:47 GMT
Well that was a bit pointless wasn't it - though probably still more believable than the Tories getting just 11% here
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Post by batman on Jul 9, 2023 9:29:31 GMT
it really gets my goat when polls are published without an incredibly obvious & important detail like that. Why the Telegraph couldn't mention that it was sampled entirely in Flitwick is hard to understand.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,029
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Post by jamie on Jul 9, 2023 10:09:08 GMT
Has anybody got a source for the Flitwick bit?
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