graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2023 13:29:18 GMT
In the Betting markets Labour has now come in to 9/2 - having been 10/1. Betfair has the party now at 3/1.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 2, 2023 13:44:30 GMT
My prediction 1) wait for the results of the other three by-elections. Tories lose them all. 2) Boris Johnson leaves the Conservative Party, calling it unelectable, and declares his intention to stand as an independent in Mid Beds 3) Dorries resigns, paving the way for the return of the leader.The leader of what in those circumstances? The leader of the Cult of Johnson of course
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 2, 2023 13:45:48 GMT
I feel a bit guilty about sharing that poll now. A genuine independent got around 10% in the Hartlepool by-election, so I'd agree that around that figure is possible for an effective NOTA vote. I'm not sold on Reform being a complete irrelevance in Mid Beds. The Tories are doing even worse than in late 2021 when Tice got 6.6% in OB&S. This seat is more provincial (it is a proper backwater from when we've been through it). Even high single digits for REFUK matter here if you have a close second-placed Tory. I can see the Tories doing worse here than you might think because of the frivolous fact of this contest (indeed, the question mark over the date is exhibit A in this being a promotional stunt from Dorries, IMHO). If you held a gun to my head, I'd say this will be another Richmond 1989 - a seat the Tories win because of disorganised opposition and confused voters. I could be dead wrong, but that's just the feeling. Both Labour and Lib Dems seem to think they are in with a shout here which can't hurt the Tories' chances of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat whenever and if ever this by-election comes to fruition. Hartlepool is an urban constituency though based on one town so it would be easier for a well known community based independent to get the word out throughout the town especially in a non-metropolitan provincial town which may have tight knit communities. But that must be harder in a sprawling rural area like this where he might be well known/popular in one village (where people do know each other) but he would have to go out of his way to establish himself in other villages where he would be previously unknown. Having said that, there are exceptions I guess like East Devon where the independent, a councillor in one village managed to get the word out throughout the constituency to come a very good second, but that was over years of effort. And say if Dorries decided to inexplicably stand again (doing a Davis/Goldsmith style vanity by election) there could have been scope for a Tatton style contest here.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2023 14:06:50 GMT
Who the flump is Gareth Mackey anyway, and why on Earth would 19% of people say that they are going to vote for him in a parliamentary by-election? It looks like a voodoo poll, commissioned by someone for non-neutral purposes, and with probably a very low sample size. The only meaningful information from that poll is that the Conservative Party is clearly beatable. Possibly by Labour, possibly by the Lib Dems, possibly by both. By the time it actually happens (and I still think it’s when, not if), it could be one of those 1993-97-style by-elections where the Conservative comes third. He is the Deputy Leader of the Independent-run council and he just got re-elected in a landslide last May in Flitwick.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2023 14:11:21 GMT
I feel a bit guilty about sharing that poll now. A genuine independent got around 10% in the Hartlepool by-election, so I'd agree that around that figure is possible for an effective NOTA vote. I'm not sold on Reform being a complete irrelevance in Mid Beds. The Tories are doing even worse than in late 2021 when Tice got 6.6% in OB&S. This seat is more provincial (it is a proper backwater from when we've been through it). Even high single digits for REFUK matter here if you have a close second-placed Tory. I can see the Tories doing worse here than you might think because of the frivolous fact of this contest (indeed, the question mark over the date is exhibit A in this being a promotional stunt from Dorries, IMHO). If you held a gun to my head, I'd say this will be another Richmond 1989 - a seat the Tories win because of disorganised opposition and confused voters. I could be dead wrong, but that's just the feeling. Both Labour and Lib Dems seem to think they are in with a shout here which can't hurt the Tories' chances of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat whenever and if ever this by-election comes to fruition. Hartlepool is an urban constituency though based on one town so it would be easier for a well known community based independent to get the word out throughout the town especially in a non-metropolitan provincial town which may have tight knit communities. But that must be harder in a sprawling rural area like this where he might be well known/popular in one village (where people do know each other) but he would have to go out of his way to establish himself in other villages where he would be previously unknown. Having said that, there are exceptions I guess like East Devon where the independent, a councillor in one village managed to get the word out throughout the constituency to come a very good second, but that was over years of effort. And say if Dorries decided to inexplicably stand again (doing a Davis/Goldsmith style vanity by election) there could have been scope for a Tatton style contest here. Ashfield and Wyre Forest too.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 2, 2023 14:59:12 GMT
I can easily see how the deputy leader of the council could be well known. We could be looking at a genuine four-way race here.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 2, 2023 15:42:09 GMT
I can easily see how the deputy leader of the council could be well known. We could be looking at a genuine four-way race here. I was wrong, he is not deputy Leader, but he is Chair of the Council (and executive member). He also got 2248 votes in May, dragging a running-mate with him and getting double the vote of the only Conservative elected. EDIT: Now I get my confusion, he was (and might still be) the deputy leader of the Ind group and was put as Chair instead of deputy leader.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 2, 2023 17:12:24 GMT
Oh and speaking of Richmond (Yorks) / and Northallerton, which was mentioned above, I would like to think there is a non-zero chance of a by-election there within the next 2 years after RS loses the GE/is booted out by the 1922 letters. He doesn’t seem like the sort to stick around on the backbenches at all unlike May.
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Post by stb12 on Jul 2, 2023 19:35:19 GMT
Oh and speaking of Richmond (Yorks) / and Northallerton, which was mentioned above, I would like to think there is a non-zero chance of a by-election there within the next 2 years after RS loses the GE/is booted out by the 1922 letters. He doesn’t seem like the sort to stick around on the backbenches at all unlike May. Truss has as well now and Boris tried to so the theme that developed of PMs standing down from parliament immediately after leaving office may be declining, albeit every individual circumstance can still be different
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 2, 2023 20:04:59 GMT
Oh and speaking of Richmond (Yorks) / and Northallerton, which was mentioned above, I would like to think there is a non-zero chance of a by-election there within the next 2 years after RS loses the GE/is booted out by the 1922 letters. He doesn’t seem like the sort to stick around on the backbenches at all unlike May. Truss has as well now and Boris tried to so the theme that developed of PMs standing down from parliament immediately after leaving office may be declining, albeit every individual circumstance can still be different Heath stuck around for many years after leaving No 10. Douglas-Home also stayed for a while, including serving as Foreign Secretary. Thatcher left at the election following her unseating, while Major stayed for the full parliament after the Tory defeat in 1997. Only Blair left the Commons immediately on resigning as PM. Brown, like Major, served a full term after being defeated. Cameron left a few months before resigning. May is still there. And Johnson left in disgrace.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 2, 2023 23:42:44 GMT
Oh and speaking of Richmond (Yorks) / and Northallerton, which was mentioned above, I would like to think there is a non-zero chance of a by-election there within the next 2 years after RS loses the GE/is booted out by the 1922 letters. He doesn’t seem like the sort to stick around on the backbenches at all unlike May. Truss has as well now and Boris tried to so the theme that developed of PMs standing down from parliament immediately after leaving office may be declining, albeit every individual circumstance can still be different I feel they both stayed with an intention to undermine their (eventual in the case of Boris) successor. May was also effective in this though I wouldn’t be as cynical to apply the same to her as her primary intention, being the much more ‘public-service’ oriented politician she is. As for Truss, I’m sure even she couldn’t believe the brevity of her tenure, now she has already been putting out off-message articles/speeches and foreign trips. She may even gather momentum as the economic situation is almost as dire as when she left, so she could, if she wanted to, go down the track of “look, things aren’t much better with the guy you supposedly put in who was meant to clear the mess I apparently left”. But that requires a level of self-awareness she does not have. I also base my suggestions of a Richmond by-election on similar murmurs last year that Sunak would probably be able to walk into a job back in California soon after losing the leadership election - so probably even he couldn’t believe the brevity of Truss’ tenure.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 4, 2023 12:28:59 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 4, 2023 13:50:39 GMT
Is this from the same team that brought you "Has Maldonado crashed today?"
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 4, 2023 14:21:15 GMT
Is this from the same team that brought you "Has Maldonado crashed today?" Where is that lettuce when you need it?
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skyep
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Post by skyep on Jul 4, 2023 21:29:43 GMT
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 5, 2023 1:38:25 GMT
Basically summed up as our bar charts have been caught lying.
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Post by tonyhill on Jul 5, 2023 5:50:15 GMT
No - basically summed up as 30% 'Don't Knows' plus an implausibly high estimate for the Independent.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2023 7:56:55 GMT
The point that the independent support is suspiciously high is a fair one - it's probably best thought of as the pool of people who would like a viable independent to vote for rather than actual support for that particular candidate.
The point about the crosstabs is specious nonsense (if we were on 18% amongst over 65s he'd be saying that the gap between support amongst the young and the elderly was implausibly narrow given national polls) and you expect to see high percentages of don't knows when the by-election hasn't even been called yet.
Certainly you shouldn't place too much trust in that one poll, but the specific arguments Pack advances are all quite weak.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 5, 2023 8:36:46 GMT
Mark has confirmed what it says on Wikipedia, that this poll was commissioned by the labour party. However, outside those two I can't find any other sources including the tables to confirm that
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 5, 2023 10:41:55 GMT
Are the LDs being cynical about polls and by-elections again? Well there's a shock.....
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