CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2023 19:50:21 GMT
According to the Telegraph Opinium has a poll which shows Labour winning the seat. Numbers behind a paywall. Hmm - I guess on certain to vote, over those who have selected a candidate, so much pinching of salt: Labour 28% Cons 24% Ind 19% LD 15% Reform 10%
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2023 19:53:43 GMT
According to the Telegraph Opinium has a poll which shows Labour winning the seat. Numbers behind a paywall. Hmm - I guess on certain to vote, over those who have selected a candidate, so much pinching of salt: Labour 28% Cons 24% Ind 19% LD 15% Reform 10% However, If I am Labour, I am slamming this out on social media and in leaflets saying; "Only Labour can beat the Tories here." "Don't let the Lib Dems let the Tories in," etc....
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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Post by graham on Jul 1, 2023 19:54:04 GMT
Interesting to see if the poll shifts the betting. Not a good poll for the LDs.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 1, 2023 19:57:30 GMT
I have no knowledge from on the ground, but those numbers just don't feel right. I can't put my finger on why, but it's just wrong somehow.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2023 20:11:08 GMT
I have no knowledge from on the ground, but those numbers just don't feel right. I can't put my finger on why, but it's just wrong somehow. The Independent is far too high, he won't have the campaign team either. The Reform vote seem to be predicated on the small number of the electorate who like the sitting MP, were former UKIP voters, etc, and the Lib Dems will surely pick up. Also, I cannot see the Tories on only 24% of the vote here. It is clear that Labour are campaigning hard here, and that is a challenge to the Lib Dem narrative of they are the Tories only opponents. As a psephologist, I would say to the Lib Dems: don't panic, you are certainly not coming 4th here, you have a remarkable campaigning strategy and can gain soft Tories; to Labour, if your come to this seat after two byelection victories in U&SR and S&A, you are very well placed to gain the votes of all those who want the government to be be defeated; to the Tories, there is no way the Independent and Reform will do this well so get your core vote out. A rider - this is not a pro-remain Tory seat, they voted for Nadine Dorries in massive numbers. This byelection will tell us how far we have moved on from Brexit voting patterns.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,909
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 1, 2023 20:25:04 GMT
That kind of story is Labour's worst nightmare.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2023 21:01:14 GMT
That kind of story is Labour's worst nightmare. If you mean my last post, not necessarily, ,as a bounce from byelection victories can be significant, and if they have a good postal vote team, all will be well. The Latour candidate, who is obviously well thought of, and has lots of activist support, has gone in hard from day 1, which has wrong-footed the "only we care for you, fill in our local survey" early Lib Dem byelection tactic (which I don't decry, it is impressive). This putative byelection, so far, is fascinating to behold.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 1, 2023 21:09:37 GMT
So when is this by-election actually going to occur? My prediction 1) wait for the results of the other three by-elections. Tories lose them all. 2) Boris Johnson leaves the Conservative Party, calling it unelectable, and declares his intention to stand as an independent in Mid Beds 3) Dorries resigns, paving the way for the return of the leader.The leader of what in those circumstances?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,566
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Post by ricmk on Jul 1, 2023 21:29:47 GMT
I was there again this morning. My gut feel on that poll is that it shows that the Tories are very beatable but it’s all about establishing yourself as the best alternative for the others. The leaflets I was delivering went big on the bookies odds, and Labour not being serious with a London councillor.
I’d urge everyone to take the Indy more seriously - remember he’s part of the formal group who have just taken over the Council so there is a decent network. And he’ll do especially well in his ward of Flitwick.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2023 3:59:58 GMT
This Reform result would spook Tories across the land:
REFUK just about held their deposit in Old Bexley & Sidcup.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,460
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2023 9:09:22 GMT
Despite the above comment 19% definitely looks much too high for the Independent in a parliamentary context, 9% is perhaps plausible.
And the LibDems might well see that supposed 19% as an area where they could make real inroads.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 2, 2023 9:19:27 GMT
Who the flump is Gareth Mackey anyway, and why on Earth would 19% of people say that they are going to vote for him in a parliamentary by-election? It looks like a voodoo poll, commissioned by someone for non-neutral purposes, and with probably a very low sample size. The only meaningful information from that poll is that the Conservative Party is clearly beatable. Possibly by Labour, possibly by the Lib Dems, possibly by both. By the time it actually happens (and I still think it’s when, not if), it could be one of those 1993-97-style by-elections where the Conservative comes third.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2023 9:27:14 GMT
Despite the above comment 19% definitely looks much too high for the Independent in a parliamentary context, 9% is perhaps plausible. And the LibDems might well see that supposed 19% as an area where they could make real inroads. George Galloway has polled a fair bit higher in the past. Probably depends on how well known this Independent is.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 2, 2023 10:21:45 GMT
Despite the above comment 19% definitely looks much too high for the Independent in a parliamentary context, 9% is perhaps plausible. And the LibDems might well see that supposed 19% as an area where they could make real inroads. George Galloway has polled a fair bit higher in the past. Probably depends on how well known this Independent is. Galloway has a high profile though, and has often carefully considered where he’d stand. Reform aren’t getting 10% though, Tice & his pals are just laughing at folk paying their fees to be supporters. Fox is the one putting himself through the ringer - for no obvious gain.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 2, 2023 10:39:54 GMT
I was there again this morning. My gut feel on that poll is that it shows that the Tories are very beatable but it’s all about establishing yourself as the best alternative for the others. The leaflets I was delivering went big on the bookies odds, and Labour not being serious with a London councillor. I’d urge everyone to take the Indy more seriously - remember he’s part of the formal group who have just taken over the Council so there is a decent network. And he’ll do especially well in his ward of Flitwick. Bit of a hostage to fortune if the odds shift and Labour go big on that.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2023 10:40:37 GMT
I feel a bit guilty about sharing that poll now.
A genuine independent got around 10% in the Hartlepool by-election, so I'd agree that around that figure is possible for an effective NOTA vote.
I'm not sold on Reform being a complete irrelevance in Mid Beds. The Tories are doing even worse than in late 2021 when Tice got 6.6% in OB&S. This seat is more provincial (it is a proper backwater from when we've been through it). Even high single digits for REFUK matter here if you have a close second-placed Tory.
I can see the Tories doing worse here than you might think because of the frivolous fact of this contest (indeed, the question mark over the date is exhibit A in this being a promotional stunt from Dorries, IMHO).
If you held a gun to my head, I'd say this will be another Richmond 1989 - a seat the Tories win because of disorganised opposition and confused voters. I could be dead wrong, but that's just the feeling. Both Labour and Lib Dems seem to think they are in with a shout here which can't hurt the Tories' chances of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat whenever and if ever this by-election comes to fruition.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 2, 2023 10:41:43 GMT
I was there again this morning. My gut feel on that poll is that it shows that the Tories are very beatable but it’s all about establishing yourself as the best alternative for the others. The leaflets I was delivering went big on the bookies odds, and Labour not being serious with a London councillor. I’d urge everyone to take the Indy more seriously - remember he’s part of the formal group who have just taken over the Council so there is a decent network. And he’ll do especially well in his ward of Flitwick. I really don't like this, as local isn't always best, also, it seems that he is a talented politician and, well he is local, he just moved away for work, which is what most of us do.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,119
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 2, 2023 10:44:47 GMT
Today's 'Telegraph' says that "Labour commissioned the poll .... following anecdotal reports by canvassers that voters appeared to be deserting the Conservatives in vast numbers."
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,068
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 2, 2023 11:01:38 GMT
I feel a bit guilty about sharing that poll now. A genuine independent got around 10% in the Hartlepool by-election, so I'd agree that around that figure is possible for an effective NOTA vote. I'm not sold on Reform being a complete irrelevance in Mid Beds. The Tories are doing even worse than in late 2021 when Tice got 6.6% in OB&S. This seat is more provincial (it is a proper backwater from when we've been through it). Even high single digits for REFUK matter here if you have a close second-placed Tory. I can see the Tories doing worse here than you might think because of the frivolous fact of this contest (indeed, the question mark over the date is exhibit A in this being a promotional stunt from Dorries, IMHO). If you held a gun to my head, I'd say this will be another Richmond 1989 - a seat the Tories win because of disorganised opposition and confused voters. I could be dead wrong, but that's just the feeling. Both Labour and Lib Dems seem to think they are in with a shout here which can't hurt the Tories' chances of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat whenever and if ever this by-election comes to fruition. It's not a backwater, it's the definition of commuter belt. There are strong transport links to Luton, Bedford and London which serve the overwhelming majority of the constituency, and almost everyone else commutes by driving. I actually think the Tory vote here will prove to be a lot more immovable than in many places and I think this is a harder gain for whoever that it appears on paper
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 2, 2023 13:02:41 GMT
Rural Bedfordshire is a ‘backwater’ LOL
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