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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 14, 2023 21:27:57 GMT
An FOI specialist writes:
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 14, 2023 21:31:00 GMT
If I wanted to resign as an MP, i would request explicitly to be appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds. Not the Manor of Northstead. They usually take it in turns, but I specifically want the one and not the other. The last time the Stewardships failed to alternate was in 1954. William Cuthbert (Arundel and Shoreham) CH on 12 February, followed by Sir Sidney Marshall (Sutton and Cheam) CH on 3 October. The reason was probably that a warrant of appointment for the Manor of Northstead was drawn up for Peter Baker, who had suffered a breakdown and was in a mental hospital - due to the collapse of his publishing company, which later led to his imprisonment for fraud.
Before then the last failure to alternate was 1928-29, again with two consecutive CH appointments (Sir Frederick Sykes 26 June 1928, Sir William Jowitt 12 July 1929). A man with an interesting life story, to put it mildly. He employed Muriel Spark at one point and appears in "A Far Cry from Kensington". |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 14, 2023 21:35:54 GMT
Labour not taking Uxbridge/Selby might enforce a message that only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories. I spy mass herds of unicorns. with bar charts painted on their flanks. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 14, 2023 21:41:36 GMT
I spy mass herds of unicorns. with bar charts painted on their flanks. It's a two horn race. |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 14, 2023 21:43:25 GMT
Indeed. By-elections are not generally the same as general elections. Swings to the best-placed opposition party are almost always accentuated when the governing party is doing badly, and in general all trends tend to be exaggerated. Although the swing required to win Selby & Ainsty is not small, it's only slightly larger than the average Labour poll lead is showing and it would be pretty surprising, particularly if the electorate thinks that it is being dragged to the polls unnecessarily (which is the case here), if Labour failed to take either, although obviously the party cannot afford to be complacent. Things are different when an election is unavoidable (generally because of death) although swings in such by-elections can still be very large even if the election is not the fault of the incumbent party (e.g. Chesham & Amersham in this parliament, Eastbourne in 1990). History tells us that any Conservative survival in the 3 seats where a by-election is either pending or expected would be a really big surprise, though of course it would be silly to say it's impossible. The first by-elections I remember with huge swings from the Tories when they were in power were Newbury and Christchurch. Both where the by-election was caused by the death of the sitting MP. It does seem like there is no difference when the election is unavoidable to the relative parties fortunes. Newbury coming first was a big shock at the amount of the swing to the Lib Dems, Judith Chaplin had only been elected a year before, seemed popular and likeable and had a sudden death at a relatively young age that would have likely attracted a more sympathetic pro-Tory vote at the time. The much longer service of Cheryl Gillan made no difference from a tenure perspective either. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2023 4:18:42 GMT
Snork..
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 15, 2023 4:36:08 GMT
Ey up ! She's launching her own "enquiry"
The Adams precedent is becoming more relevant by the hour. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2023 7:02:07 GMT
An FOI specialist writes: I didn't know Martin was a FOI expert. I went to college with him & he's a really, really good bloke. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 15, 2023 8:38:29 GMT
ISTR this was gone into a bit with Gerry Adams. It was concluded that his request to leave the Commons was sufficient despite being worded wrongly and sent to the wrong person and although he made some noises he didn't put in any objection that could invalidate his candidacy for the Dail. Dorries does not seem to be so calculating. I think section 8 of the 1975 Act might also come into play if the Chancellor tried to get rid of a member against their will: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/24/section/8/enactedThe risk of this happening was discussed as far back as 1942. I'll see if I can find the link. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 15, 2023 8:51:51 GMT
She's going to go full Golden Cleric at some point isn't she? Probably in a speech about the findings of the Privs Committee. Down with this sort of thing! |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 15, 2023 9:00:47 GMT
I hadn't realised until looking at a map what a non-place, bits left over constituency this is. There are 3 small towns (Flitwick, Ampthill, Shefford), plus commuter villages for Luton, Bedford, and Milton Keynes, and of course some undistinguished countryside separating these places.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 15, 2023 9:36:08 GMT
I hadn't realised until looking at a map what a non-place, bits left over constituency this is. There are 3 small towns (Flitwick, Ampthill, Shefford), plus commuter villages for Luton, Bedford, and Milton Keynes, and of course some undistinguished countryside separating these places. It's Bedfordshire, of course it's a non-place. In any case, the 'Mid' part gives a big clue. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2023 9:45:46 GMT
On the Mid/NE Bedfordshire debate, i'd come down firmly on the side of Mid Beds as being the most boring, samey and anonymous. NE Beds has far more electoral variety, especially along the A1 corridor. Biggleswade is a serious town which Labour can win in a good year and Sandy can be politically interesting and some of the smaller communities like Arlesley and Stotfold are mixed too. Against which you have an almost monolithic Conservative strength in the rural Bedford borough wards. Mid Bedfordshire has far less variety and the largest town is Flitwick for goodness sake - the largest proper town is Ampthill. Notwithstanding some historic Lib Dem support there and in some of the wards bordering Luton, it is all very samey when it comes to distribution of party support. I come at this from the point of view of someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time working out notional ward results for various constituencies and there are always some constituencies that are a chore to do because of the lack of variety. That is why Denton & Reddish resonated so strongly with me and Mid Beds is a good equivalent from the point of view of a safe, but not monolithic, Conservative seat |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2023 10:37:37 GMT
The last time the Stewardships failed to alternate was in 1954. William Cuthbert (Arundel and Shoreham) CH on 12 February, followed by Sir Sidney Marshall (Sutton and Cheam) CH on 3 October. The reason was probably that a warrant of appointment for the Manor of Northstead was drawn up for Peter Baker, who had suffered a breakdown and was in a mental hospital - due to the collapse of his publishing company, which later led to his imprisonment for fraud.
Before then the last failure to alternate was 1928-29, again with two consecutive CH appointments (Sir Frederick Sykes 26 June 1928, Sir William Jowitt 12 July 1929). A man with an interesting life story, to put it mildly. He employed Muriel Spark at one point and appears in "A Far Cry from Kensington". Wonderful writer in an odd period of transition and adjustment back to peacetime. Baker was an oddball who never quite adjusted to anything after the war. His father was one of the Ealing Studios producers and lived at Loddenden Manor near Staplehurst which in turn was close to where I grew up. My Mother was an acquaintance of his mother and also a close friend of another Staplehurst resident (Sefton-Smith) who was also in German POW camps and because of his excellent German and chess playing persuaded the commandant to arrange for him to receive study and pass his CA examinations whilst interned. He too became a manufacturer and publisher. Odd times. But the young Muriel used all this in such novels as 'A Far Cry...' and 'The Ballad of Peckham Rye' and her own upbringing in Edinburgh for 'The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie'. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2023 10:58:31 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997) Its markedly different from North Shropshire, not least because it has a significant *industrial* presence (including ex-mining) that the former doesn't really save for Oswestry (where most agree, the Labour vote held up best in the byelection) And its predecessor wasn't just won by Labour "in 1997" but stayed in their hands until 2010 - not that long ago at all. There is also a significant Labour local government presence, not true of any of the LibDem byelection gains this parliament. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 15, 2023 11:46:28 GMT
A man with an interesting life story, to put it mildly. He employed Muriel Spark at one point and appears in "A Far Cry from Kensington". Wonderful writer in an odd period of transition and adjustment back to peacetime. Baker was an oddball who never quite adjusted to anything after the war. His father was one of the Ealing Studios producers and lived at Loddenden Manor near Staplehurst which in turn was close to where I grew up. My Mother was an acquaintance of his mother and also a close friend of another Staplehurst resident (Sefton-Smith) who was also in German POW camps and because of his excellent German and chess playing persuaded the commandant to arrange for him to receive study and pass his CA examinations whilst interned. He too became a manufacturer and publisher. Odd times. But the young Muriel used all this in such novels as 'A Far Cry...' and 'The Ballad of Peckham Rye' and her own upbringing in Edinburgh for 'The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie'. Spark was one of the greatest writers of the twentieth century, and all the more remarkable, because like Nicholas Hilliard, her canvases were generally so small. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 15, 2023 12:33:39 GMT
Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997) Its markedly different from North Shropshire, not least because it has a significant *industrial* presence (including ex-mining) that the former doesn't really save for Oswestry (where most agree, the Labour vote held up best in the byelection) And its predecessor wasn't just won by Labour "in 1997" but stayed in their hands until 2010 - not that long ago at all. There is also a significant Labour local government presence, not true of any of the LibDem byelection gains this parliament. I did not ever at any time or in any way write or say or imply or suggest that the Labour Party “just” won Selby “in 1997” and not at any other time. I did write, entirely truthfully and accurately, that Labour won Selby in 1997. Whether or not Labour did or did not also won Selby in 2001 and/or 2005 and/or 2010 and/or 2015 and/or 2017 and/or 2019 and/or 1992 and/or 1987 and/or 1865 and/or 1832 or any other time is completely immaterial and irrelevant. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 15, 2023 19:34:05 GMT
Alistair Strathern wins the Labour selection. He's currently a cabinet member in Waltham Forest but is originally from this constituency.
Don't know who else was on the shortlist though Deeba Syed was apparently on it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2023 20:32:45 GMT
Nice bar chart..
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2023 21:05:29 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye, Police & Crime Commissioner for Bedfordshire, picked as Conservative candidate.
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