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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 15:32:01 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997). Uxbridge & South Ruislip is a two-way marginal with no room for a Lib Dem challenge. It is worth remembering that in this parliament, in by-elections, the Lib Dems have usually been very good in spreading their votes efficiently by either losing their deposit or winning the seat, with not much in between. In Uxbridge the Lib Dem candidate is more likely to come 4th behind Reform/Reclaim than to win or come 2nd. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2023 15:41:43 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Wherever it damages Labour the most |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 14, 2023 15:42:36 GMT
I tend to agree John, but I dont think all forum members necessarily do  Still not heard from anyone on the yellow team yet.. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jun 14, 2023 15:44:59 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Wherever it damages Labour the most Nah, let Labour keep themselves busy in Selby and Uxbridge, and put everything into Mid Beds showing the LDs really are the obvious challengers. Then when Labour try to focus on Mid Beds it’ll be too late. Really can’t see why LDs would want to hurt Lab in Uxbridge or Selby. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2023 15:46:33 GMT
I'm not sure Richard Kemp's view is widely held amongst Lib Dems... ;-) The Lib Dem Preston leader John Potter seemed to share his opinion. So that’s two anyway. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2023 15:48:11 GMT
In the LibDem podcast Richard Kemp said that the Lib Dems could do very well in Selby. I have questions. Take the time to watch/listen to the pod cast, you may find the answers that you seek |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 14, 2023 15:55:44 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997). Uxbridge & South Ruislip is a two-way marginal with no room for a Lib Dem challenge. It is worth remembering that in this parliament, in by-elections, the Lib Dems have usually been very good in spreading their votes efficiently by either losing their deposit or winning the seat, with not much in between. In Uxbridge the Lib Dem candidate is more likely to come 4th behind Reform/Reclaim than to win or come 2nd. In fact only one parliamentary by-election in this Parliament has seen the Liberal Democrats save their deposit without also winning the seat-the City of Chester by-election last year. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 14, 2023 16:17:57 GMT
So if , as seems likely, this by-election dosent happen on the same day as Johnson & Adams elections, where do we think [addressing specifically, but not exclusively, the yellow team] the Lib Dems will target the greater part of their efforts and resources - U&SR or S&A? Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997). Uxbridge & South Ruislip is a two-way marginal with no room for a Lib Dem challenge. It is worth remembering that in this parliament, in by-elections, the Lib Dems have usually been very good in spreading their votes efficiently by either losing their deposit or winning the seat, with not much in between. In Uxbridge the Lib Dem candidate is more likely to come 4th behind Reform/Reclaim than to win or come 2nd. It held the old iteration until 2010, and Selby town council's leader rather cheerily refers to his as the only Labour-run council in North Yorkshire. Labour have the game here and won't be cutting any slack for the Lib Dems. I see a lost deposit more likely than a good second, more likely LDs in high single figures. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 16:20:14 GMT
Why stop there? Does the chancellor need her permission to appoint her as steward and bailiff? ISTR this was gone into a bit with Gerry Adams. It was concluded that his request to leave the Commons was sufficient despite being worded wrongly and sent to the wrong person and although he made some noises he didn't put in any objection that could invalidate his candidacy for the Dail. Dorries does not seem to be so calculating. In the case of the Sinn Fein MPs, all of those things happened because both sides knew what needed to be done, and both sides understood that the other side needed to do what they did, in the way that they did, without losing face. Gerry Adams wrote a letter to the Speaker to "resign" as an MP, knowing that it was going to be interpreted as a request to the Chancellor to be appointed as the Steward of Whatever. The Chancellor knew that Adams genuinely wanted to resign, so he appointed him as Thingy of Whatever, knowing that Adams would pretend that it was an appointment he didn't want. In the case of Nadine Dorries, she has explicitly said that she wants to remain as an MP for a bit longer, for a specific reason. Thus it would be wrong of the Chancellor to appoint her to be Thingy of Wherever, because the Chancellor knows that she doesn't want it yet. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 14, 2023 16:37:59 GMT
ISTR this was gone into a bit with Gerry Adams. It was concluded that his request to leave the Commons was sufficient despite being worded wrongly and sent to the wrong person and although he made some noises he didn't put in any objection that could invalidate his candidacy for the Dail. Dorries does not seem to be so calculating. In the case of the Sinn Fein MPs, all of those things happened because both sides knew what needed to be done, and both sides understood that the other side needed to do what they did, in the way that they did, without losing face. Gerry Adams wrote a letter to the Speaker to "resign" as an MP, knowing that it was going to be interpreted as a request to the Chancellor to be appointed as the Steward of Whatever. The Chancellor knew that Adams genuinely wanted to resign, so he appointed him as Thingy of Whatever, knowing that Adams would pretend that it was an appointment he didn't want. I'm not sure Adams did know this when he wrote the letter. ISTR his reaction was one of genuine surprise and it actually briefly raised a question as to whether the seat had been vacated at all, with the Speaker modifying the wording of the writ to cover this. I suspect that had it not been so pressing for him to be clearly out of the Commons in time for the Republic's election this could well have dragged on. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 14, 2023 17:39:28 GMT
In the case of the Sinn Fein MPs, all of those things happened because both sides knew what needed to be done, and both sides understood that the other side needed to do what they did, in the way that they did, without losing face. Gerry Adams wrote a letter to the Speaker to "resign" as an MP, knowing that it was going to be interpreted as a request to the Chancellor to be appointed as the Steward of Whatever. The Chancellor knew that Adams genuinely wanted to resign, so he appointed him as Thingy of Whatever, knowing that Adams would pretend that it was an appointment he didn't want. I'm not sure Adams did know this when he wrote the letter. ISTR his reaction was one of genuine surprise and it actually briefly raised a question as to whether the seat had been vacated at all, with the Speaker modifying the wording of the writ to cover this. I suspect that had it not been so pressing for him to be clearly out of the Commons in time for the Republic's election this could well have dragged on. This was Adams’s statement following some unwise words from the PM: "The only contact I have had with the British parliament is a letter I posted to them last Thursday," said Adams. "That letter said: ‘A chara, I hereby resign as MP for the constituency of west Belfast. Go raibh maith agat. Gerry Adams’. "When I was told of the British Prime Minister’s remarks today this was the first I heard of this development. I understand Mr Cameron has claimed that 'the Honourable Member for West Belfast has accepted an office for profit under the Crown'. "This is untrue. I simply resigned. I was not consulted nor was I asked to accept such an office. I am an Irish republican. I have had no truck whatsoever with these antiquated and quite bizarre aspects of the British parliamentary system. “I am proud to have represented the people of west Belfast for almost three decades and to have done so without pledging allegiance to the English Queen or accepting British parliamentary claims to jurisdiction in my country. “It was a wrench for me to give up the West Belfast seat. “But I gave a commitment that when the election to the Dáil was called I would resign the West Belfast seat to stand for the Louth and East Meath constituency and I have. “Mr Cameron’s announcement that I have become Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, wherever that is, is a bizarre development. I am sure the burghers of that Manor are as bemused as me. I have spoken to the Prime Minister's private secretary today and he has apologised for today’s events. “While I respect the right of British parliamentarians to have their own protocols and systems, no matter how odd these may appear to the rest of the world in general and Irish people in particular, the Prime Minister should not make claims which are untrue and inaccurate.” |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2023 18:23:34 GMT
I'm not sure Adams did know this when he wrote the letter. ISTR his reaction was one of genuine surprise and it actually briefly raised a question as to whether the seat had been vacated at all, with the Speaker modifying the wording of the writ to cover this. I suspect that had it not been so pressing for him to be clearly out of the Commons in time for the Republic's election this could well have dragged on. This was Adams’s statement following some unwise words from the PM: "The only contact I have had with the British parliament is a letter I posted to them last Thursday," said Adams. "That letter said: ‘A chara, I hereby resign as MP for the constituency of west Belfast. Go raibh maith agat. Gerry Adams’. "When I was told of the British Prime Minister’s remarks today this was the first I heard of this development. I understand Mr Cameron has claimed that 'the Honourable Member for West Belfast has accepted an office for profit under the Crown'. "This is untrue. I simply resigned. I was not consulted nor was I asked to accept such an office. I am an Irish republican. I have had no truck whatsoever with these antiquated and quite bizarre aspects of the British parliamentary system. “I am proud to have represented the people of west Belfast for almost three decades and to have done so without pledging allegiance to the English Queen or accepting British parliamentary claims to jurisdiction in my country. “It was a wrench for me to give up the West Belfast seat. “But I gave a commitment that when the election to the Dáil was called I would resign the West Belfast seat to stand for the Louth and East Meath constituency and I have. “Mr Cameron’s announcement that I have become Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, wherever that is, is a bizarre development. I am sure the burghers of that Manor are as bemused as me. I have spoken to the Prime Minister's private secretary today and he has apologised for today’s events. “While I respect the right of British parliamentarians to have their own protocols and systems, no matter how odd these may appear to the rest of the world in general and Irish people in particular, the Prime Minister should not make claims which are untrue and inaccurate.” I think the wording of that statement is all part of the pretence / plausible deniability / saving face process which went on. Gerry Adams is an intelligent man who knows about history. He must have known about the system of the Offices of Profit Under the Crown, and it was in everybody's interests for him to pretend that he didn't understand the system, for the British government to pretend to apologise for it, for him to pretend that his letter of resignation somehow worked in the terms that he had written it. |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 14, 2023 18:38:04 GMT
Selby & Ainsty, because it's a rural North Yorkshire constituency, with demographics not too different from North Shropshire or wherever. It doesn't matter if Labour is theoretically or notionally the main opposition, or that Labour used to hold the seat in the old days (1997). Uxbridge & South Ruislip is a two-way marginal with no room for a Lib Dem challenge. It is worth remembering that in this parliament, in by-elections, the Lib Dems have usually been very good in spreading their votes efficiently by either losing their deposit or winning the seat, with not much in between. In Uxbridge the Lib Dem candidate is more likely to come 4th behind Reform/Reclaim than to win or come 2nd. In fact only one parliamentary by-election in this Parliament has seen the Liberal Democrats save their deposit without also winning the seat-the City of Chester by-election last year. Important point. Further evidence that the Lib Dems still have to make big inroads with a large section of the electorate - even if you do account for efficient tactical voting. In some of the non-tight races (e.g. West Lancs, Stretford + Urmston), surely they should have kept their deposit? And strategically, I worry that they will stretch themselves too far come the general election, by ploughing too much more into three by-election seats (possibly four) - and lose out on some easier targets elsewhere. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 14, 2023 18:41:01 GMT
because that's not how people consume information anymore. Most people get their news now from social media. Plus you can target advertising on social media better than you can on TV or in newspapers Can you? In the May elections, we heard from a member of this forum from Southampton who was setting Green messages on one of these social platforms intended for voters in particular wards of Bournemouth. Not very targeted really. On the other hand, an advert in the Bournemouth Echo would not have been wasted on voters 30 miles away. Exactly. There;s no way of telling is somebody one social media is in the electoral area you need them to vote in - unless they themselves have told you, which requires them to have themselves chosen to chose to seek you out and tell you. Which is the complete utter opposite of seeking people to convert to you. The only people you conteact through social media are people who have already been converted to being your supporters. The whole point of campaigning is to find the subset of those people who are *NOT* your supporters that you can convert. It's the Jo Swinson error. 100% of people liking our social media posts like our social media posts, hurray! I'm going to be PM! |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 14, 2023 18:47:09 GMT
In fact only one parliamentary by-election in this Parliament has seen the Liberal Democrats save their deposit without also winning the seat-the City of Chester by-election last year. Important point. Further evidence that the Lib Dems still have to make big inroads with a large section of the electorate - even if you do account for efficient tactical voting. In some of the non-tight races (e.g. West Lancs, Stretford + Urmston), surely they should have kept their deposit? And strategically, I worry that they will stretch themselves too far come the general election, by ploughing too much more into three by-election seats (possibly four) - and lose out on some easier targets elsewhere. This is simply evidence of tactical voting, something which is helpful to both Labour and the Lib Dems. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 14, 2023 18:56:44 GMT
I'm wondering whether Mad Nad's delay in resigning will allow her to be talked round by the Tory whips into staying to the general election (with the promise of a peerage perhaps?)?
It might be an embarrassing u-turn for her and the Tories, but it would be a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems who've gone "all in" on Mid-Beds.
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davidh
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Post by davidh on Jun 14, 2023 18:58:33 GMT
Important point. Further evidence that the Lib Dems still have to make big inroads with a large section of the electorate - even if you do account for efficient tactical voting. In some of the non-tight races (e.g. West Lancs, Stretford + Urmston), surely they should have kept their deposit? And strategically, I worry that they will stretch themselves too far come the general election, by ploughing too much more into three by-election seats (possibly four) - and lose out on some easier targets elsewhere. This is simply evidence of tactical voting, something which is helpful to both Labour and the Lib Dems. Only if the Lib Dems intend to be bound to Labour eternally - in which case, would they really be an independent party? Winning votes because of who you're not rather than who you are is a fool's errand, even if it pays dividends in the short term. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 14, 2023 19:02:32 GMT
ISTR this was gone into a bit with Gerry Adams. It was concluded that his request to leave the Commons was sufficient despite being worded wrongly and sent to the wrong person and although he made some noises he didn't put in any objection that could invalidate his candidacy for the Dail. Dorries does not seem to be so calculating. I think section 8 of the 1975 Act might also come into play if the Chancellor tried to get rid of a member against their will: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/24/section/8/enactedIf I was an MP and I wanted to resign, I'd insist on being appointed a Boundary Commissioner.  |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 14, 2023 19:10:41 GMT
I remember much comment at the time that the solution to multiple problems was to appoint Adams as a Director of Northern Ireland Water.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 14, 2023 19:13:35 GMT
Of course since then Sinn Fein have started attending Royal funerals and coronations…
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