The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2023 10:32:21 GMT
Seems to be a bit of a polarisation around the two "big" parties, though PP remain strongly favoured to win.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Jul 8, 2023 10:25:08 GMT
First billboards are going up here. So far I've only seen a couple and they've all been PSOE (Gijón and Oviedo). I think yesterday was the first day that parties were allowed to put up campaign posters, so I expect a lot more to go up this weekend.
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Post by therealriga on Jul 9, 2023 12:28:21 GMT
The polls have shifted a little in favour of the right, from predicting 175-180 seats for PP + Vox, they're now predicting 180-184. Aside from 1 or 2 seats for UPN and CCa, there'd be no one else the PP could get support from. Do they want to spend a full legislature heavily dependent on Vox? Would such an arrangement last the full 4 years?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 9, 2023 14:52:55 GMT
The polls have shifted a little in favour of the right, from predicting 175-180 seats for PP + Vox, they're now predicting 180-184. Aside from 1 or 2 seats for UPN and CCa, there'd be no one else the PP could get support from. Do they want to spend a full legislature heavily dependent on Vox? Would such an arrangement last the full 4 years? Tacitly Feijóo will hope, that the numbers won't be sufficient, so that the Aznar/Ayuso-wing will have to accept a minority - or even the unthinkable: a grand coalition. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 16, 2023 3:07:05 GMT
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jul 16, 2023 8:20:55 GMT
A week to go and the numbers are looking better and better for the right block. They've now got a fair chance of taking a workable majority. Though there's still a way to go. It is predicted that around 30% of voters don't decide until the last week, so we could still see changes.
Very little sign of anything happening on the streets. A few, very dour posters up and about here in Oviedo. Today would seem to be a good day for rallies, so maybe I'll pop out to see if there's much activity. Yesterday, most public spaces in the centre were taken up by a festival celebrating the history of the Way of St. James.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 18, 2023 8:52:10 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 18, 2023 12:10:03 GMT
Santiago Abascal (Vox leader) has said that if Vox are in power then tensions will return to / increase in Cataluña, and the situation will be 'worse' than in 2017.
Well at least he's honest I suppose ...
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Jul 18, 2023 12:13:43 GMT
If they do that'll certainly help the cause...
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jul 18, 2023 15:02:42 GMT
The postal office has apparently received over 98% of postal votes already.
2,575,587 requested
2,174,990 received
I don't know how many people are eligible to vote, but I would imagine 2 million is a reasonable chunk of the electorate, 5% maybe?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 16:30:35 GMT
The postal office has apparently received over 98% of postal votes already. 2,575,587 requested 2,174,990 received I don't know how many people are eligible to vote, but I would imagine 2 million is a reasonable chunk of the electorate, 5% maybe? 37,466,432 is the figure given on Wikipedia, though unusually there isn't a reference for that given. That means around 6.9% of the electorate requested postal votes (if that figure is accurate) |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 22, 2023 9:14:16 GMT
A week to go and the numbers are looking better and better for the right block. They've now got a fair chance of taking a workable majority. Though there's still a way to go. It is predicted that around 30% of voters don't decide until the last week, so we could still see changes. Very little sign of anything happening on the streets. A few, very dour posters up and about here in Oviedo. Today would seem to be a good day for rallies, so maybe I'll pop out to see if there's much activity. Yesterday, most public spaces in the centre were taken up by a festival celebrating the history of the Way of St. James. Though there seems to have been a small swing away from the right late on. The last 3 polls from companies that were close to the final result last time show PP+Vox around half of the seats. GESOP (20 July): PP 136-140, Vox 36-40 KeyData/Público (17 July): PP 146, Vox 32 El Periódico poll of polls (21 July): PP 137, Vox 37 Results like those would be unlikely to be enough to last a 4-year term. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2023 10:33:07 GMT
There was a definite swing away from the right before Sanchez had that poor debate, so its not impossible that is resuming once memories start to fade a bit.
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observer
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Post by observer on Jul 23, 2023 0:53:59 GMT
I've just got back from a Spanish BBQ.
No-one mentioned the election. The only political comment was a slightly hostile joke about immigration which...the joke...was well received. Nothing else.
Campaigning has been very low key. We usually get lots of posters on bus stops. Very few this time. There are the usual posters attached to lampposts.
No knocks on the door. No locally delivered leaflets.
It's very hard to call. I suspect the PP will just about end up in power with Vox support. That's basically guesswork though.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Jul 23, 2023 2:04:26 GMT
I've just got back from a Spanish BBQ. No-one mentioned the election. The only political comment was a slightly hostile joke about immigration which...the joke...was well received. Nothing else. Campaigning has been very low key. We usually get lots of posters on bus stops. Very few this time. There are the usual posters attached to lampposts. No knocks on the door. No locally delivered leaflets. It's very hard to call. I suspect the PP will just about end up in power with Vox support. That's basically guesswork though. A Spanish barbecue sounds delicious. |
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observer
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Post by observer on Jul 23, 2023 11:20:02 GMT
Pork belly, sardines, chorizo sausage, sangria, chicken, tomatoes
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jul 23, 2023 12:45:49 GMT
Visited two polling stations today in Gijón. Both were heaving with people midday-ish. Tried to sneak a peak at the ballot papers people were picking up, but obviously didn't see enough yo get an idea of which way the wind is blowing. My fiancé voted for PSOE for the lower chamber and two votes for PSOE and one for Sumar for the senate. I missed who my mother-in-law voted for for the senate, but she voted PACMA (animal rights party) for the lower chamber.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 23, 2023 12:50:04 GMT
Visited two polling stations today in Gijón. Both were heaving with people midday-ish. Tried to sneak a peak at the ballot papers people were picking up, but obviously didn't see enough yo get an idea of which way the wind is blowing. My fiancé voted for PSOE for the lower chamber and two votes for PSOE and one for Sumar for the senate. I missed who my mother-in-law voted for for the senate, but she voted PACMA (animal rights party) for the lower chamber. Surely that must be a bit risky in Spain! To already have a Mother-in-Law and then to have a new fiancee as well? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 23, 2023 13:06:01 GMT
What are the essential differences between PP and Vox?
Any chance of them combining as a single party?
Is the support regional or class based for each?
Are there defining divisions of outlook and policy emphasis?
Which party do you feel would suit 'Me' best?
At present I am leaning more strongly to Vox but on a critical lack of information.
I would have been a strong and confirmed supporter of Franco at all stages of his regime.
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observer
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Post by observer on Jul 23, 2023 13:06:34 GMT
At 2pm turnout was up by 2.5%.
It's a hot day and it's possible that people were voting early to avoid the afternoon heat. Perfectly possible that turnout will just be at normal levels
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