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Post by yellowperil on Jun 23, 2023 10:19:43 GMT
A judicious decision by Robbie - but if we lose 5 points for being on the wrong side of a coin toss (or however they decided the winner in Tavistock) it does emphasise how we depend on an element of luck in this forecasting game. The other thing to say about the Tavistock result is to remind everyone of the words of wisdom from andrewteale in his piece- the good folk of Tavistock probably ignored the party labels and voted for the candidates regardless of such things. We are all making constructs about which party gained and which lost, and it may well be pretty well besides the point. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 23, 2023 10:21:37 GMT
A judicious decision by Robbie - but if we lose 5 points for being on the wrong side of a coin toss (or however they decided the winner in Tavistock) it does emphasise how we depend on an element of luck in this forecasting game. The other thing to say about the Tavistock result is to remind everyone of the words of wisdom from andrewteale in his piece- the good folk of Tavistock probably ignored the party labels and voted for the candidates regardless of such things. We are all making constructs about which party gained and which lost, and it may well be pretty well besides the point. Captain Obvious enlightens us with yet more helpful intelligence. |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,360 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2023 8:51:34 GMT
BEDFORD, Wyboston : C 73 LD 17 Lab 10
BOURNEMOUTH CHRISTCHURCH POOLE, East Cliff & Springbourne : Green 33 Lab 30 C 26 LD 11
DORSET, Sherborne W. : LD 56 C 31 Lab 13
HARINGEY, Hermitage & Gardens : Lab 50 Green 24 LD 13 C 9 CPA 4
SOUTHWARK, Newington : Lab 57 Green 23 LD 13 C 7
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,468
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Post by peterl on Jun 27, 2023 0:53:17 GMT
BEDFORD, Wyboston : C 68 LD 21 Lab 11
BOURNEMOUTH CHRISTCHURCH POOLE, East Cliff & Springbourne : Green 35 Lab 31 C 22 LD 12
DORSET, Sherborne W. : LD 59 C 31 Lab 10
HARINGEY, Hermitage & Gardens : Lab 49 Green 28 LD 15 C 5 CPA 3
SOUTHWARK, Newington : Lab 57 Green 23 LD 13 C 7
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Post by kevinf on Jun 27, 2023 14:10:34 GMT
Bedford
Con 65, Lab 20, LD 15
BCP
Lab 36, Green 34, Con 22, LD 8
Dorset
LD 50, Con 40, Lab 10
Haringey
Lab 48, Green 33.5, LD 10, Con 7, CPA 1.5
Southwark
Lab 47, Green 25, LD 17, Con 11
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 27, 2023 20:28:17 GMT
Bedford: Con 66.3; LD 21.6; Lab 12.1
BCP: Lab 33.1;Grn 32.1; Con 27.5; LD 7.3
Dorset: LD 58.0; Con 35.9; Lab 6.1
Haringey: Lab 60.9; Grn 21.0; LD 11.0; Con 5.3; CPA 1.8;
Southwark: Lab 61.6; LD 18.9; Grn 12.8; Con 6.7
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Post by corradino on Jun 28, 2023 13:51:32 GMT
Bedford: Con 70, LD 16, Lab 14.
BCP: Green 34, Lab 32, Con 28, LD 6.
Dorset: LD 62, Con 28, Lab 10.
Haringey: Lab 60, Gree 27, LD 5.1, Con 4.9, CPA 3.
Southwark: Lab 60,Green 20, LD 13, Con 7
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2023 21:21:23 GMT
Bedford Wyboston Con 71 LD 19 Lab 10
BCP East Cliff and Springbourne, Green 34 Lab 30 Con 28 LD 8
Dorset, Sherborne. LD 57 Con 33 Lab 10
Haringey. Hermitage and Gardens. Lab 52 Green 30, LD 11 Con 5 CPA 2
Southwark, Newington. Lab 58, LD 20 Green 15 Con 7
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 28, 2023 22:01:43 GMT
BEDFORD, Wyboston : C 67 LD 22 Lab 11
BOURNEMOUTH CHRISTCHURCH POOLE, East Cliff & Springbourne : Green 33 Lab 32 C 27 LD 8
DORSET, Sherborne W. : LD 60 C 30 Lab 10
HARINGEY, Hermitage & Gardens : Lab 58 Green 22 LD 13 C 5 CPA 2
SOUTHWARK, Newington : Lab 61 Green 15 LD 18 C 6
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 28, 2023 22:07:36 GMT
Bedford, Wyboston: Con 69,Lab 10, LD 21.
Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole; Eastcliff & Springbourne: Con 27,Lab 31, LD 7, GP 35.
Dorset, Sherborne West: Con 32, Lab 9, LD 59.
Haringey, Hermitage& Gardens: Con 5, Lab 50, LD 12, GP 31, CPA 2.
Southwark, Newington: Con 6, Lab 60, LD18, GP 16.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 28, 2023 23:23:26 GMT
BEDFORD, Wyboston: Con 600 LD 200 Lab 120
BOURNEMOUTH, CHRISTCHURCH & POOLE, East Cliff & Sprinbourne: Lab 600 Green 500 Con 400 LD 250
DORSET UA, Sherborne West: LD 600 Con 400 Lab 200 Grn 100
HARINGEY, Hermitage & Gardens: Lab 1000 Grn 300 LD 100 Con 80 CPA 50
SOUTHWARK, Newington: Lab 1400 Grn 700 LD 300 Con 150
BEDFORD, Wyboston: Con 65 LD 22 Lab 13
BOURNEMOUTH, CHRISTCHURCH & POOLE, East Cliff & Sprinbourne: Lab 34 Green 29 Con 23 LD 14
DORSET UA, Sherborne West: LD 46 Con 31 Lab 15 Grn 8
HARINGEY, Hermitage & Gardens: Lab 65 Grn 20 LD 7 Con 5 CPA 3
SOUTHWARK, Newington: Lab 55 Grn 27 LD 12 Con 6
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 28, 2023 23:57:14 GMT
Bedford: Con 64, LD 24, Lab 12.
BCP: Green 38, Lab 32, Con 25, LD 5.
Dorset: LD 55, Con 37, Lab 8
Haringey: Lab 54, Green 30, LD 8, Con 6, CPA 2.
Southwark: Lab 63,Green 16, LD 16, Con 5
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 29, 2023 5:05:39 GMT
Bedford UA: Wyboston: Con 66, LDm 20, Lab 14
Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole UA: Eastcliff & Springbourne: Grn 35, Lab 31, Con 27, LDm 7
Dorset UA, Sherborne West: LDm 60, Con, 29, Lab 11
Haringey LBC, Hermitage & Gardens: Lab 52, Grn 30, LDm 9, Con 7, CPA 2
Southwark LBC, Newington: Lab 51, LDm 29, Grn 14, Con 6
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 29, 2023 20:41:46 GMT
12 entries this week to close the month, all on time but with johnloony predicting 8 for a phantom Green in Dorset, so 8 faults are awarded for not getting to 100. Wyboston, Bedford: 100% Conservative, with majorities ranging from 40% (manchesterman) to 59% (Richard Cromwell). East Cliff and Sprinbourne, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 8 Green gain from Labour, with johnloony, kevinf, Richard Cromwell and Tony Otim Labour hold. Sherborne West, Dorset: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (kevinf) to 39% (Richard Cromwell). Hermitage and Gardens, Haringey: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 14.5% (kevinf) to 53% (Richard Cromwell). Newington, Southwark: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (iainbhx and kevinf) to 58% (Richard Cromwell). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PJzFnJc60a4JumtO7cL9mwpGqwBgOtfvsi70CL7HUSw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 29, 2023 23:37:50 GMT
On tonight's four results, I think Tony Otim is ahead for the week, and now a safe enough distance ahead for the month to offer early congratulations!  The rest of the 'podium places', though, seem to be still up for grabs depending on the Bournemouth result - though the predictions of those dicing for position seem quite similar to each other ( corradino, myself, iainbhx and andrewp). |
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Post by corradino on Jun 30, 2023 0:09:47 GMT
Corradino, the early leader in the June competition, gracefully conceded defeat late tonight even before the Bournemouth result, saying he wished the best of luck to the 'jammy bastards' still in contention. "I shall be back in July' , he said, 'and with renewed vigour now I appreciate just how useless is the Green Party;s electoral machine which couldn't hit a cow's a*** with a shovel".
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 30, 2023 6:32:59 GMT
After a poor month, I concede I'm not one of those jammy bastards.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2023 22:07:50 GMT
As it's not been noted, the BCP result gave manchesterman the victory for week, so congratulations due to him. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2023 22:09:19 GMT
On another note, I'll be giving the July competition a miss as I'm away for half the month and don't plan on spending my holidays making predictions...
Back in August, hopefully
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 3, 2023 10:14:43 GMT
Are we supposed to predict the Tuesday 4 July by-election, robbienicoll? |
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