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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2023 15:12:45 GMT
Bath & NE Somerset: Lab 58; Green 22; LD 10; Con 10
Southampton: Lab 42; Con 33; LD 10; Green 8; Reform 4; IND 2; TUSC 1
Stockton: Con 43; Lab 37; Grn 10; Reform 10
West Devon: LD 36; IND 32; Grn 16; Con 12; Lab 4
West Lancashire: OWL 45; Lab 33; Con 22
Wyre: Lab 58.8; Con 41.2
No splits
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Post by corradino on Jun 21, 2023 15:57:59 GMT
Bath, Paulton: Lab 58, LD 18, Green 15, Con 9.
Stockton, Hartburn: Con 53, Lab 30, Green 13, Reform 4. Con win all three seats.
West Lancs, Rural South: OWL 49, Lab 38, Con 13. OWL 2 seats, Lab 1.
Southampton, Coxford: Lab 47, Con 22, LD 15, Green 10, TUSC 2, Reform 4. Lab win all three seats.
West Devon, Tavistock North: LD 34, IND 28, Green 26, Reform 2, Con 10.
WYRE, Warren: Lab 65, Con 35. Lab win 2 seats.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 21, 2023 16:37:41 GMT
Bath, Paulton: Lab 58, LD 18, Green 15, Con 9. Stockton, Hartburn: Con 53, Lab 30, Green 13, Reform 4. Con win all three seats. West Lancs, Rural South: OWL 49, Lab 38, Con 13. OWL 2 seats, Lab 1. Southampton, Coxford: Lab 47, Con 22, LD 15, Green 10, TUSC 2, Reform 4. Lab win all three seats. West Devon, Tavistock North: LD 34, IND 28, Green 26, Reform 2, Con 10. WYRE, Warren: Lab 65, Con 35. Lab win 2 seats. - you might need a second look at Tavistock North? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2023 21:59:39 GMT
BANES Paulton Lab 63 Green 15 Con 12 LD 10 2x Lab win
Southampton, Coxford. Lab 47 Con 32, Green 7 LD 6 TuSC 3 RefUk3 Ind 2 3x Lab win
Stockton, Hartburn. Con 53 Lab 34 Green 10 RefUK 3 3x Con win
West Devon. Tavistock North Ind 31 LD 29 Green 20 Con 15 Lab 5
West Lancs, Rural South OWL 40 Lab 30 Con 30. 3x OWL win
Wyre. Warren. Lab 70 Con 30 2x Lab win
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2023 22:01:16 GMT
Bath, Paulton: Lab 58, LD 18, Green 15, Con 9. Stockton, Hartburn: Con 53, Lab 30, Green 13, Reform 4. Con win all three seats. West Lancs, Rural South: OWL 49, Lab 38, Con 13. OWL 2 seats, Lab 1. Southampton, Coxford: Lab 47, Con 22, LD 15, Green 10, TUSC 2, Reform 4. Lab win all three seats. West Devon, Tavistock North: LD 34, IND 28, Green 26, Reform 2, Con 10. WYRE, Warren: Lab 65, Con 35. Lab win 2 seats. - you might need a second look at Tavistock North? And Southampton |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 21, 2023 22:07:44 GMT
Bath & NE Somerset, Paulton:Con 10, Lab 62, LD 15, GP 13.
Southampton, Coxford: Con 23, Lab 50, LD 11,GP 9, RUK 2, TUSC 2, Ind 3.
Stockton-on-Tees,Hartburn: Con 50, Lab 34, GP 13, RUK 3.
West Devon, Tavistock N: Con 11, Lab 3, LD 33, GP 23, Ind 30.
West Lancs, Rural S: Con 14, Lab 40, OWL 46. (OWLx2, Lab x1).
Wyre, Warren: Con 40, Lab 60.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 21, 2023 22:30:10 GMT
BANES Paulton Lab 62 Green 9 Con 16 LD 13 2 x Lab win
Southampton, Coxford. Lab 48 Con 35 Green 6 LD 6 TuSC 1 RefUk 2 Ind 2 3 x Lab win
Stockton, Hartburn. Con 56 Lab 35 Green 6 RefUK 3 3x Con win
West Devon. Tavistock North Ind 29 LD 31 Green 18 Con 17 Lab 5
West Lancs, Rural South OWL 39 Lab 34 Con 27. 2 x OWL, 1 x Lab win
Wyre. Warren. Lab 62 Con 38 2x Lab win
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2023 23:45:05 GMT
B&NES, Paulton: Lab 50 Green 28 LD 17 Con 5
SOUTHAMPTON, Coxford: Lab 46 Con 25 LD 14 Green 9 TUSC 2 RefUK 1 Ind 3
STOCKTON ON TEES, Hartburn: Con 42 Lab 38 Green 15 RefUK 5
WEST DEVON DC, Tavistock North: LD 36 Ind 27 Green 24 Con 8 Lab 5
WEST LANCASHIRE DC, Rural South: OWL 50 Lab 29 Con 21
WYRE DC, Warren: Lab 58 Con 42
No split wards.
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Post by corradino on Jun 22, 2023 0:00:58 GMT
Many thanks to those suggesting I look again at my predictions. I’m on my hols and there are strong beers in Porlock. Now I have sobered up can I make some late revisions? These are as follows:-
Southampton, Coxford: Revise Con to 21 and add Ind 1.
West Devon, Tavistock North: delete Reform, add Lab 5 and reduce Green to 23.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2023 4:55:10 GMT
Many thanks to those suggesting I look again at my predictions. I’m on my hols and there are strong beers in Porlock. Now I have sobered up can I make some late revisions? These are as follows:- Southampton, Coxford: Revise Con to 21 and add Ind 1. West Devon, Tavistock North: delete Reform, add Lab 5 and reduce Green to 23. Ah, the Man from Porlock... not always a happy sobering up. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 22, 2023 5:23:18 GMT
Bath and North East Somerset UA, Paulton: Lab 64 LDm 14 Con 12 Grn 10 - 2*Lab win
Southampton UA, Coxford: Lab 46, Con 31, LDm 9, Grn 6, TUSC 4, RefUk 3, Ind 1 - 3*Lab win
Stockton UA, Hartburn: Con 55, Lab 35, REF-UK 7 Grn 3 - 3*Con win
West Devon DC, Tavistock North: Ind 30, Grn 26, LDm 22, Con 15, Lab 7 - Ind win
West Lancs DC, Rural South: OWL 38, Con 32, Lab 30 - 3*OWL win
Wyre DC, Warren: Lab 58, Con 42 - 2*LAB win
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 22, 2023 8:11:52 GMT
Many thanks to those suggesting I look again at my predictions. I’m on my hols and there are strong beers in Porlock. Now I have sobered up can I make some late revisions? These are as follows:- Southampton, Coxford: Revise Con to 21 and add Ind 1. West Devon, Tavistock North: delete Reform, add Lab 5 and reduce Green to 23. Ah, the Man from Porlock... not always a happy sobering up. "I'm canvassing on behalf of Kubla Khan and I wonder if he could count on your vote? He opposes the building of any other pleasure domes in the area". |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 22, 2023 10:27:21 GMT
Ah, the Man from Porlock... not always a happy sobering up. "I'm canvassing on behalf of Kubla Khan and I wonder if he could count on your vote? He opposes the building of any other pleasure domes in the area". Is he against letting in any more Ethiopian musicians? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 22, 2023 22:35:15 GMT
11 full entries and a partial entry from Richard Cromwell this week, all on time and correct. Paulton, Bath and North East Somerset: 100% Labour hold of both seats, top vote majorities ranging from 22% (peterl) to 54% (batman). Coxford, Southampton: 100% Labour hold x2 and 1 gain from Conservative, with top vote majorities ranging from 5% (kevinf) to 27% (yellowperil). Hartburn, Stockton on Tees: 100% Conservative hold of both seats, top vote majorities ranging from 4% (peterl) to 29% (batman). Tavistock North, West Devon: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Green, with andrewp, iainbhx and Tony Otim Independent (Mann) gain. Rural South, West Lancashire: 9 Our West Lancashire win all three seats, with Robert Waller and yellowperil 2x OWL and 1 Labour win. All have OWL in front, with top vote majorities ranging from 5% (Robert Waller) to 30% (batman and johnloony). Warren, Wyre: 100% Labour hold and gain from UKIP, with top vote majorities ranging from 16% (iainbhx and peterl) to 40% (andrewp). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/171nsHCcKdTWHIIZC2JxoApa1Q3YrEiKjVCSzm-kyM9I/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 23, 2023 8:56:51 GMT
I see that no West Devon results have yet been entered, but undoubtedly a splendid week for both batman and Tony Otim! Who actually wins the week I think may depend on what robbienicoll does with the 'wrong winner faults' there - if any .... but if that decision denies Tony the week, he may be compensated by taking the monthly lead. Overall, I think the scores were pretty low, i.e. good, for six contests, |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2023 8:57:44 GMT
West Devon was the only one where I picked the wrong winner, but only by 0 votes.
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2023 8:59:30 GMT
Hartburn is such a consistently safe Tory ward isn't it. Whatever happens in the rest of the country it never seems to change to any real extent.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jun 23, 2023 9:28:48 GMT
There has been one tied contest before (Thurrock in March 2018) which has helped my deliberations, but this is actually a unique situation in that entrants predicted both sides of the draw to win, whereas last time entrants only predicted the one who ended up being elected. My decision is as follows: - Those who predicted the Independent to win were correct - she was elected, therefore 0 faults - this is what happened in 2018
- Those who predicted a Lib Dem to win were incorrect, but faults have been reduced to 5 given that they didn't outright lose in terms of the top vote - this didn't occur in 2018 so is a new precedent
This does mean Tony squeaks ahead of batman for the week, but all to play for with 5 contests next Thursday.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 23, 2023 9:51:44 GMT
Hartburn is such a consistently safe Tory ward isn't it. Whatever happens in the rest of the country it never seems to change to any real extent. Heartburn-a nagging pain where you don't want it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2023 9:56:18 GMT
Hartburn is such a consistently safe Tory ward isn't it. Whatever happens in the rest of the country it never seems to change to any real extent. Heartburn-a nagging pain where you don't want it. It must be synonmous with yellowperil then, though you would think that would indicate problems associated with the liver rather than the heart.. |
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