Prediction Competition - May/June 2023

[andrewp]

North Lanarkshire. Bellshill. Lab 42 SNP 33 Con 10 Green 5 LD 4 Alba 3 SFP 1 Freedom 1, UKIP 0.5 BUP 0.5. Lab win on transfers
Plymouth. Efford and Lipson. Lab 49, Green 18 Con 16 Singh 9, LD 5 TUSC 2 Heritage 1
South Derbyshire. Hilton. Con 47 Lab 28 LD 25. 3x Con win
Sunderland. Hendon, LD 44 Lab 37 Con 9 RefUK 5, Green 5
Surrey Heath. Frimley Green LD 60 Con 40 3x LD win
West Devon. Burrator LD 43 Con 32 Green 17 Lab 8 2x LD win

[andrewp]

Jun 14, 2023 18:23:44 GMT batman said:

N.LANARKSHIRE, Bellshill : Lab 34 SNP 27 C 20 Alba 6 Green 5 LD 4 British U 2 Freedom All 1 Scot Fam 1. Lab win on transfers

PLYMOUTH, Efford & Lipson : Lab 61 C 17 Ind 10 LD 7 Heritage 3 TUSC 2

S.DERBYSHIRE, Hilton : C 47 Lab 36 LD 17. C win all 3 seats

SUNDERLAND, Hendon : Lab 36 LD 34 C 18 RefUK 7 Green 5

SURREY HEATH, Frimley Green : LD 62 C 38. LD win all 3 seats

W.DEVON, Burrator : LD 46 C 36 Green 11 Lab 7. LD win both seats. Percentage for top candidates

Paging batman and peterl You have both missed out the Green in Plymouth

[batman]

thanks Andrew, duly edited.

[Tony Otim]

North Lanarkshire: Lab 41.9; SNP 34.3; Con 11.6; BUP 4.8; Grn 2.2; LD 2.0; Alba 1.9; UKIP 0.7; SFP 0.5; Freedom All 0.1 (Lab win)
Plymouth: Lab 53.5; Con 16.7; Singh 13.7; Grn 9.5; LD 4.2; TUSC 1.5; Heritage 0.9
South Derbyshire: Con 44.4; Lab 28.7; LD 26.9 (3 x Con)
Sunderland: LD 41.9; Lab 41.5; Con 8.6; RefUK 4.2; Grn 3.8
Surrey Heath: LD 56.8; Con 43.2 (3 x LD)
West Devon: LD 36.8; Con 33.2; Grn 18.2; Lab 11.8 (1 LD, 1 Con)

[Robert Waller]

North Lanarkshire. Bellshill. Lab 41 SNP 34 Con 13 Green 4 LD 4 Alba 1.7 SFP 1 Freedom 0.7, UKIP 0.3 BUP 0.3. Lab win on transfers

Plymouth. Efford and Lipson. Lab 53.5, Green 13 Con 17 Singh 10, LD 5 TUSC 1 Heritage 0.5

South Derbyshire. Hilton. Con 45 Lab 28 LD 27. 3x Con win

Sunderland. Hendon, LD 40 Lab 45 Con 7 RefUK 4, Green 4

Surrey Heath. Frimley Green LD 68 Con 32 3x LD win

West Devon. Burrator LD 42 Con 38 Green 12 Lab 8 1 x LD win 1 x C

[yellowperil]

North Lanarkshire, Bellshill: Con 11, Lab 40, LD 9, SGP 6, SNP 29, Alba 3, UKIP 0.5, Family 0.5, Freedom 0.5, B Unionist 0.5. Lab win on transfers
Plymouth, Efford & Lipson: Con 18,Lab 50, LD 4.5, GP 12, Ind Singh 14, TUSC 1, Her 0.5
South Derbys, Hilton: Con 44,Lab 29, LD 27. Con winx3.
Sunderland, Hendon: Con 8, Lab 40. LD 42, GP 5, RUK 5.
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green: Con 40, LD 60. LD winx3.
West Devon, Burrator: Con 40, Lab 8, LD 42, GP10. Conx 1 win, LDx1 win.

[peterl]

Jun 14, 2023 19:32:37 GMT andrewp said:

Paging batman and peterl You have both missed out the Green in Plymouth

Thanks, fixed. That's the danger of copying another's format I suppose, you make the same mistake.

[iainbhx]

North Lanarkshire SUA : Bellshill: Lab 39, SNP 35, Con 13.5, LD 4 Alba 3, Grn 2.5, BUP 1.5, SFP 1, UKIP 0.3, Freedom 0.2 - Lab win on transfers

Plymouth UA: Efford & Lipson: Lab 51, Con 18, Grn 11, Ind Singh 9, LDm 6, Heritage 3, TUSC 2 - Lab win

South Derbyshire DC, Hilton: Con 47, LDm 27, Lab 26 - 3xCon win

Sunderland MBC, Hendon: LDm 43, Lab 41, Con 8, RE-FUK 5, Grn 3 - LDm win

Surrey Heath DC, Frimley Green: LDm 62, Con 38 - 3xLD win

West Devon DC, Burrator: Con 45, LDm 33, Grn 14, Lab 8 - 1 Con, 1 LDm win

[batman]

Jun 14, 2023 23:15:40 GMT peterl said:

Jun 14, 2023 19:32:37 GMT andrewp said:

Paging batman and peterl You have both missed out the Green in Plymouth

Thanks, fixed. That's the danger of copying another's format I suppose, you make the same mistake.

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

[andrewp]

I now wish that I had taken more notice of the fact that we, obviously unusually, have sitting councillors standing for re election in 4 of todays 6 prediction contests.

[Robert Waller]

With the details from South Derbyshire to come, and West Devon tomorrow, I think so far (Very approx)

In Bellshill, Tony Otim and corradino were best

I won in Sunderland

Richard Cromwell took the palm in Plymouth

yellowperil and andrewp almost spot on on Surrey Heath

Overall corradino retains the monthly lead from Tony Otim and iainbhx almost equal in second, and these three close together in the lead for the week.

I think!

[Robert Waller]

I've probably lost all grip with my calculations, but I think Tony Otim may have won the day ...
... including St Albans on Tuesday though, I have corradino just ahead for the week as a whole

I am a little more confident that corradino still leads the month, with Tony Otim second and iainbhx third, followed by yellowperil and andrewp


johnloony may have won in South Derbyshire and corradino in West Devon.

[robbienicoll]

There were 12 entries for Thursday, with Right Leaning still missing. All on time, but with kevinf picking up 5 faults for going over in South Derbyshire.

Bellshill, North Lanarkshire: 11 Labour win on first preferences - ranged 1% (manchesterman) to 15% (corradino) and gain from SNP after transfers, with kevinf opting for SNP ahead on first preferences (albeit by 1%) and Labour gain after transfers. Tony Otim was the overall winner here with 25.8 faults.

Efford and Lipson, Plymouth: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (manchesterman) to 48% (peterl). Richard Cromwell won with 13.5 faults.

Hilton, South Derbyshire: 11 have Conservatives holding all 3 seats, with majorities ranging from 6% (peterl) to 20% (iainbhx and johnloony). Richard Cromwell had Labour gaining all 3 seats with majority of 2%. Corradino was the winner with 28.5 faults.

Hendon, Sunderland: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with batman and Robert Waller Labour hold. Robert won with 6.6 faults.

Frimley Green, Surrey Heath: 100% Liberal Democrat to hold all 3 seats, with majorities ranging from 10% (corradino and kevinf) to 48% (Richard Cromwell). Andrewp and yellowperil shared the spoils with 1 fault apiece.

Burrator, West Devon: 6 have Liberal Democrat hold and gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, Robert Waller, Tony Otim and yellowperil LD and Conservative holds, and kevinf and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold and gain. Peterl won here with 11.7 faults.

Thanks to Robert for covering for me. I have corradino winning the week over Tony albeit by ~2 faults, and then a further 3 to get to andrewp which extends corradino's monthly lead ahead of another bumper set next week. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10G5rqbAAoAbDp5gaRjR7eB0cpRDi52Y8ydROODn0ww0/edit?usp=sharing. 

[batman]

All predictions are for highest candidate. I am not predicting any splits in the all-out wards

BATH & N.E.SOMERSET, Paulton : Lab 72 C 18 LD 6 Green 4

SOUTHAMPTON, Coxford : Lab 44 C 30 LD 9 Green 6 RefUK 5 TUSC 4 Ind 2

STOCKTON-ON-TEES, Hartburn : C 58 Lab 29 Green 7 RefUK 6

W.DEVON, Tavistock N. : LD 33 Ind 27 Green 21 C 12 Lab 7

W.LANCASHIRE, Rural S : OWL 56 C 26 Lab 18

WYRE, Warren : Lab 61 C 39

[Tony Otim]

Bath & NE Somerset: Lab 64.7; LD 14.3; Con 11.4; Grn 9.6
Southampton: Lab 45.5; Con 35.5; LD 6.8; Grn 5.8; RefUK 3.1; Surridge 2.3; TUSC 1.0
Stockton: Con 54.6; Lab 37.2; RefUK 4.8; Grn 3.4
West Devon: Mann 30.3; LD 29.7; Grn 22.8; Con 13.1; Lab 4.1
West Lancashire: OWL 48.6; Lab 31.2; Con 20.2
Wyre: Lab 64.3; Con 35.7

No split wards

[Richard Cromwell]

Tavistock North, West Devon

LDEM	35%
GRN	29%
CON	15%
IND	12%
LAB	9%

And, it seems we're doing next week in advance (or I've missed something).

Sherborne West, Dorset

LDEM	64%
CON	25%
LAB	11%

Hermitage & Gardens, Haringey

LAB	71%
GRN	18%
LDEM	7%
CON	4%
CPA	0%

East Cliff & Springbourne, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

LAB	32%
CON	30%
GRN	28%
LDEM	10%

Newington, Southwark

LAB	70%
GRN	12%
LDEM	11%
CON	7%

Wyboston, Bedford

CON	74%
LDEM	15%
LAB	11%

[andrewp]

Jun 21, 2023 10:17:03 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Tavistock North, West Devon

LDEM	35%
GRN	29%
CON	15%
IND	12%
LAB	9%

And, it seems we're doing next week in advance (or I've missed something).

Sherborne West, Dorset

LDEM	64%
CON	25%
LAB	11%

Hermitage & Gardens, Haringey

LAB	71%
GRN	18%
LDEM	7%
CON	4%
CPA	0%

East Cliff & Springbourne, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

LAB	32%
CON	30%
GRN	28%
LDEM	10%

Newington, Southwark

LAB	70%
GRN	12%
LDEM	11%
CON	7%

Wyboston, Bedford

CON	74%
LDEM	15%
LAB	11%

There’s no need to do next weeks yet, but you’ve missed most of this weeks 6 I think

[Richard Cromwell]

Jun 21, 2023 10:22:28 GMT andrewp said:

There’s no need to do next weeks yet, but you’ve missed most of this weeks 6 I think

I've now noticed my mistake, lmao. I'll accept the faults on this week's other five.

[johnloony]

B&NES, Paulton: Lab 57 Green 21 LD 14 Con 8
SOUTHAMPTON, Coxford: Lab 43 Con 31 LD 11 Green 8 TUSC 2 RefUK 1 Ind 4
STOCKTON ON TEES, Hartburn: Con 45 Lab 36 Green 14 RefUK 5
WEST DEVON DC, Tavistock North: Ind 29 LD 35 Green 18 Con 12 Lab 6
WEST LANCASHIRE DC, Rural South: OWL 55 Lab 25 Con 20
WYRE DC, Warren: Lab 61 Con 39

[kevinf]

BaNES
Lab 50, Green 20, Con 18, LD12
So’ton
Lab 35, Con 30, LD 18, Green 9, Reform 4, Tusc 3, Ind 1
Stockton
Con 45, Lab 35, Green 17, Reform 3
West Devon
LD 32, Ind 30, Green 16, Con 15, Lab 7
West Kancs
OWL 50, Lab 29, Con 21
Wyre
Lab 59, Con 41
No split wards