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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 3, 2023 14:09:52 GMT
Watling South result: Carol Dean, Labour - 714 Alex Farrell, Conservatives - 858 Barry Gwilt, Reform UK - 110 Helen Miller-Viney, Lib Dem - 160 I know this isn't in the same place as the district byelection, but Tamworth is a fairly homogenous place overall and so this is IMO still a strong indicator that Labour would have won the Belgrave seat without an Independent standing. You mean "wouldn't"? |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 3, 2023 14:26:43 GMT
Watling South result: Carol Dean, Labour - 714 Alex Farrell, Conservatives - 858 Barry Gwilt, Reform UK - 110 Helen Miller-Viney, Lib Dem - 160 Con 46.6% (-20) Lab 38.8% (+10.1) LD 8.7% RefUk 6% |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2023 14:44:52 GMT
Worth remembering that Labour have abysmally underperformed in Tamworth for a few years now - yes, not quite winning those seats is disappointing, but it's still pointing towards a recovery in the area
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Post by greenman on Mar 3, 2023 14:59:21 GMT
Byker Last February the longtime, gay man, leader of labour in Newcastle was de-selected and his replacement was elected from Byker: www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-60470309www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/nick-kemp-promises-fresh-ideas-23398093As for LD you would expect them to do better as they control 20 of 76 seats on council to labour's 52 and two Independent and 2 other local resident association seats. So maybe this Byker was a split in the Labour vote, but we will not know until the next general election and what happens in Heaton and West Fenham where Greens are closer to winning those seats. As for Hythe West, it is clear the hard right and centre-right vote split 541 votes to two hard-right candidates this time versus only 189 in 2021. That's the difference between then and now. |
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Mar 3, 2023 15:31:13 GMT
Byker Last February the longtime, gay man, leader of labour in Newcastle was de-selected and his replacement was elected from Byker: www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-60470309www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/nick-kemp-promises-fresh-ideas-23398093As for LD you would expect them to do better as they control 20 of 76 seats on council to labour's 52 and two Independent and 2 other local resident association seats.
So maybe this Byker was a split in the Labour vote, but we will not know until the next general election and what happens in Heaton and West Fenham where Greens are closer to winning those seats. As for Hythe West, it is clear the hard right and centre-right vote split 541 votes to two hard-right candidates this time versus only 189 in 2021. That's the difference between then and now. Not really: this is Byker we're talking about and even during their pre-coalition ascendancy the Liberal Democrats did very poorly in the East End (as in the West End). Since 2015, Ouseburn aside, they've all but ceased to exist outside the affluent north (Gosforth, Kingston Park, Newcastle Great Park). As for Heaton, the Greens seem to be comfortably stuck in second with Andrew Gray (a Stop the War type who once seriously proposed that Newcastle should join Scotland). |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 3, 2023 15:42:16 GMT
Byker Last February the longtime, gay man, leader of labour in Newcastle was de-selected and his replacement was elected from Byker: www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-60470309www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/nick-kemp-promises-fresh-ideas-23398093As for LD you would expect them to do better as they control 20 of 76 seats on council to labour's 52 and two Independent and 2 other local resident association seats.
So maybe this Byker was a split in the Labour vote, but we will not know until the next general election and what happens in Heaton and West Fenham where Greens are closer to winning those seats. As for Hythe West, it is clear the hard right and centre-right vote split 541 votes to two hard-right candidates this time versus only 189 in 2021. That's the difference between then and now. Not really: this is Byker we're talking about and even during their pre-coalition ascendancy the Liberal Democrats did very poorly in the East End (as in the West End). Since 2015, Ouseburn aside, they've all but ceased to exist outside the affluent north (Gosforth, Kingston Park, Newcastle Great Park). As for Heaton, the Greens seem to be comfortably stuck in second with Andrew Gray (a Stop the War type who once seriously proposed that Newcastle should join Scotland). On a minor point of nit picking, the Lib Dems did win Walkergate at times during the pre-coalition years but that is rather different in character from Byker and Walker - it's more like Wallsend (which was also a Lib Dem stronghold at tbe time) and is slightly more owner occupied and less deprived than the East End proper. |
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Mar 3, 2023 15:53:07 GMT
Not really: this is Byker we're talking about and even during their pre-coalition ascendancy the Liberal Democrats did very poorly in the East End (as in the West End). Since 2015, Ouseburn aside, they've all but ceased to exist outside the affluent north (Gosforth, Kingston Park, Newcastle Great Park). As for Heaton, the Greens seem to be comfortably stuck in second with Andrew Gray (a Stop the War type who once seriously proposed that Newcastle should join Scotland). On a minor point of nit picking, the Lib Dems did win Walkergate at times during the pre-coalition years but that is rather different in character from Byker and Walker - it's more like Wallsend (which was also a Lib Dem stronghold at tbe time) and is slightly more owner occupied and less deprived than the East End proper. Yes, that's Walkerville at work. I wouldn't say 'slightly' though. On their current boundaries Byker is 22% owner-occupied, Walker 25%, and Walkergate 56%. The area between Scrogg Road and Roman Avenue that was added to it is very low % owner-occupied so it would have been higher. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 3, 2023 16:01:14 GMT
On a minor point of nit picking, the Lib Dems did win Walkergate at times during the pre-coalition years but that is rather different in character from Byker and Walker - it's more like Wallsend (which was also a Lib Dem stronghold at tbe time) and is slightly more owner occupied and less deprived than the East End proper. Yes, that's Walkerville at work. I wouldn't say 'slightly' though. On their current boundaries Byker is 22% owner-occupied, Walker 25%, and Walkergate 56%. The area between Scrogg Road and Roman Avenue that was added to it is very low % owner-occupied so it would have been higher. I didn't realise the differences were quite that stark (it's probably the bit of the city I'm least familiar with, even though it was my dad's old stomping ground). Perhaps unfairly I see everywhere along the Metro line from the city centre all the way to North Shields as at least a little dubious! |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 3, 2023 16:41:03 GMT
We (as a County Group) did have high hopes here but you can never quite tell how things will go... BTW - that's for the Greens rather than the Indies though we are the Green and Indie Group on KCC! I take it you weren't looking forward to welcoming Mr Weatherhead into your ranks? I suspect he would have had his own little solo-non-group... |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 3, 2023 16:41:18 GMT
Worth remembering that Labour have abysmally underperformed in Tamworth for a few years now - yes, not quite winning those seats is disappointing, but it's still pointing towards a recovery in the area The Local Democracy Reporter at the count is saying Labour are “very pleased” and they believe it “positions them well for May” - he doesn’t attribute names to those quotes so don’t shoot me if you think it’s b.s. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 3, 2023 17:04:23 GMT
I take it you weren't looking forward to welcoming Mr Weatherhead into your ranks? I suspect he would have had his own little solo-non-group... The Independent Black Shorts. |
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Post by batman on Mar 3, 2023 17:10:15 GMT
I know this isn't in the same place as the district byelection, but Tamworth is a fairly homogenous place overall and so this is IMO still a strong indicator that Labour would have won the Belgrave seat without an Independent standing. You mean "wouldn't"? I agree with The Bishop, it looks very much to me as if the Independent candidacy saved the ward for the Tories. |
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wysall
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Post by wysall on Mar 3, 2023 17:29:13 GMT
If I'm not mistaken, Watling South consists of the affluent end of Tamworth.
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Post by lancastrian on Mar 3, 2023 17:39:45 GMT
yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. I'd say it's not just contrary to most people's expectations, it's actively bizarre.
It means the independent who ran on a platform of "I'm local" and "Rights for motorists, no low traffic neighbourhoods" did no better in the area he is local to, and which is highly car-dependent and has a vocal anti-LTN faction than he did in the area he isn't local to, and which has been a low traffic neighbourhood since (I think) the 1950s, and would be utterly ruined by the removal of that LTN as it would become a handy short cut for a large proportion of the residential population to the ring road...
It also of course means people were no more or less inclined to vote for the "yes to cars" candidate in the election to the authority which actually makes transport policy than the authority which doesn't, but you can't reasonably expect the voters to understand two-tier government!
I'm not sure it is that bizarre if you think about all the measures being taken to reduce traffic in Oxford. Households with no car or van, 2021 census: Littlemore 25.1% Rose Hill and Iffley 29.1% (granted some of this isn't in the county division) Not that much difference. The traffic filters are going to have a much bigger impact for a lot of people than the LTNs, and they don't discriminate between Rose Hill and Littlemore. They might even be less of an inconvenience for residents outside the ring road, as they won't have to drive in the wrong direction to reach it, and being further away from the filters might be less likely to have jobs on the other side. And the city council are as I understand it the proponents of the 15 minute city thing which has been tied in to the traffic restrictions, so voters might understand two tier government but still see no difference between the two. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 3, 2023 17:43:34 GMT
Byker Last February the longtime, gay man, leader of labour in Newcastle was de-selected and his replacement was elected from Byker: www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-60470309www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/nick-kemp-promises-fresh-ideas-23398093As for LD you would expect them to do better as they control 20 of 76 seats on council to labour's 52 and two Independent and 2 other local resident association seats. So maybe this Byker was a split in the Labour vote, but we will not know until the next general election and what happens in Heaton and West Fenham where Greens are closer to winning those seats. As for Hythe West, it is clear the hard right and centre-right vote split 541 votes to two hard-right candidates this time versus only 189 in 2021. That's the difference between then and now. weird way of describing Nick Forbes |
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Post by batman on Mar 3, 2023 17:48:05 GMT
indeed
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 3, 2023 18:00:20 GMT
Byker Lab 46.9% -18.1 Grn 29.7% +15.3 LDm 14.9% +9.2 Con 8.5% -6.5 That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home. I expect at least some of them will be back out voting Labour come May... Depends on how many bar charts we deliver in the interim. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 3, 2023 18:25:04 GMT
I'd say it's not just contrary to most people's expectations, it's actively bizarre.
It means the independent who ran on a platform of "I'm local" and "Rights for motorists, no low traffic neighbourhoods" did no better in the area he is local to, and which is highly car-dependent and has a vocal anti-LTN faction than he did in the area he isn't local to, and which has been a low traffic neighbourhood since (I think) the 1950s, and would be utterly ruined by the removal of that LTN as it would become a handy short cut for a large proportion of the residential population to the ring road...
It also of course means people were no more or less inclined to vote for the "yes to cars" candidate in the election to the authority which actually makes transport policy than the authority which doesn't, but you can't reasonably expect the voters to understand two-tier government!
I'm not sure it is that bizarre if you think about all the measures being taken to reduce traffic in Oxford. Households with no car or van, 2021 census: Littlemore 25.1% Rose Hill and Iffley 29.1% (granted some of this isn't in the county division) Not that much difference. The traffic filters are going to have a much bigger impact for a lot of people than the LTNs, and they don't discriminate between Rose Hill and Littlemore. They might even be less of an inconvenience for residents outside the ring road, as they won't have to drive in the wrong direction to reach it, and being further away from the filters might be less likely to have jobs on the other side. And the city council are as I understand it the proponents of the 15 minute city thing which has been tied in to the traffic restrictions, so voters might understand two tier government but still see no difference between the two. Rose Hill and Iffley is a very starkly divided ward. Iffley is an affluent village now swallowed up into Oxford's suburban sprawl, whereas Rose Hill is one of the most deprived estates in the city. The proportion of households without a car in the Rose Hill part of RH&I is about 33%, by my reckoning - so admittedly not a huge difference, but bigger than 29-25. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 3, 2023 18:38:18 GMT
This is just a musing... big caveat acknowledged about comparing national GE polls to local by-elections, but one thing I've been thinking is that it's very difficult to gauge how accurate polls may be accounting for Reform due to the lack of candidates they have standing anywhere (that may in itself be an issue come a general election that affects their overall voteshare, or maybe not, we will see) but this week we have 2 in Tamworth, which may not be the most favourable area for them, but is I would have thought at least better than average and they get 6% and 4%. It does make me go "hmmm...." a bit about polls having them pushing for double figures.
We'll need to wait till the end of the month for further evidence in Gloucester...
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 3, 2023 20:20:35 GMT
This is just a musing... big caveat acknowledged about comparing national GE polls to local by-elections, but one thing I've been thinking is that it's very difficult to gauge how accurate polls may be accounting for Reform due to the lack of candidates they have standing anywhere (that may in itself be an issue come a general election that affects their overall voteshare, or maybe not, we will see) but this week we have 2 in Tamworth, which may not be the most favourable area for them, but is I would have thought at least better than average and they get 6% and 4%. It does make me go "hmmm...." a bit about polls having them pushing for double figures. We'll need to wait till the end of the month for further evidence in Gloucester... Personally, I'm sceptical that the number of people who have even heard of Reform under their current name is a double figure percentage. |
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