|
|
Post by matureleft on Mar 2, 2023 16:34:46 GMT
It's hard to say for certain, but Littlemore does have a relatively high proportion of drivers compared with Oxford as a whole. Car ownership is above the city average, and Littlemore has the 3rd highest proportion of residents who drive to work. It's not a well off area by any means but neither is it very deprived in the way Blackbird Leys is - mostly it's an upper working class area with the skilled trades well represented. It's also almost 75% white which is the highest figure of any of the working class wards in South/East Oxford - another way in which it feels more suburban than urban. Rose Hill is rather different in character - it's a lot more diverse, a bit more deprived, and more "inner city" in character. The Conservatives might win the city ward and not the county division, but almost certainly not the other way round. Why the Conservatives? I would think given previous election results that if anybody was going to challenge Labour then an independent candidate would be best placed to do so. As I've mentioned up the thread the Tory is explicitly opposing these measures. Of course if his campaign is pretty feeble nobody will know. In my experience these sorts of things, regardless of their objective merit (and I can see the argument, particularly in a very congested place like Oxford), are seldom popular. Since it's a joint City/County initiative all the main parties except the Tories are implicitly supporting it (although that won't stop some careful local nuance of course!). |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Mar 2, 2023 16:40:24 GMT
It's hard to say for certain, but Littlemore does have a relatively high proportion of drivers compared with Oxford as a whole. Car ownership is above the city average, and Littlemore has the 3rd highest proportion of residents who drive to work. It's not a well off area by any means but neither is it very deprived in the way Blackbird Leys is - mostly it's an upper working class area with the skilled trades well represented. It's also almost 75% white which is the highest figure of any of the working class wards in South/East Oxford - another way in which it feels more suburban than urban. Rose Hill is rather different in character - it's a lot more diverse, a bit more deprived, and more "inner city" in character. The Conservatives might win the city ward and not the county division, but almost certainly not the other way round. Why the Conservatives? I would think given previous election results that if anybody was going to challenge Labour then an independent candidate would be best placed to do so. Perhaps it would be better reframed as Labour losing then? The main point I was trying to make is that the county boundaries are better for Labour than the city ones. |
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
|
Post by Pimpernal on Mar 2, 2023 17:24:55 GMT
KENT CC; Hythe West (Ind elected as Con resigned) Candidates: COOPER, Tony (Labour) GABRIS, John (Conservative) HAWKINS, Jenni (Green) MEYERS, Ian Barry (Independent) WEATHERHEAD, Andy (Independent) 2021: Con 2592; Grn 1997; Lab 499; UKIP 189 2017: Grn 2234; Con 2044; UKIP 493; Lab 340; LD 280 Andy Weatherhead is the former councillor whose resignation triggered the by-election. His resignation followed a Hope Not Hate investigation which revealed that he had previously been a prominent member of fascist organisation New British Union. Ian Meyers was the UKIP candidate in 2017 and sitting district councillor for Romney Marsh ward, which is partially in this division. Tony Cooper contested Romney Marsh ward for Labour in 2019. The rest of Romney Marsh ward is of course in Romney Marsh division, which both Meyers and Cooper contested unsuccessfully in 2021. Jenni Hawkins contested East Folkestone ward (not in this division at all) for the Greens in 2019. Current Council: Con 60; Lab 7; LD 6; Grn 4; Swale Ind 1; Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents 1; 2 vacancies Just to add, there are significant boundary changes between the 2021 seat and that of 2017 when the Greens won... In case that helps with predictions  |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2023 19:36:59 GMT
Why the Conservatives? I would think given previous election results that if anybody was going to challenge Labour then an independent candidate would be best placed to do so. As I've mentioned up the thread the Tory is explicitly opposing these measures. Of course if his campaign is pretty feeble nobody will know. In my experience these sorts of things, regardless of their objective merit (and I can see the argument, particularly in a very congested place like Oxford), are seldom popular. Since it's a joint City/County initiative all the main parties except the Tories are implicitly supporting it (although that won't stop some careful local nuance of course!). So is the Independent Evans, according to web evidence. As my prediction on that thread indicates, my own guess is that the Indy will get most of the anti-traffic measure vote. I would not be amazed if they actually win. Also it's a very long time since any Conservative has done well anywhere in Oxford. However, given my recent record in predicting, everything I have just said may very well turn out to be a pile of wombat's dos.  |
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 2, 2023 19:38:09 GMT
In my experience these sorts of things, regardless of their objective merit (and I can see the argument, particularly in a very congested place like Oxford), are seldom popular. That really varies from case to case, though the people against always make a lot of noise. Oxford's initiative does have several hallmarks of something that would genuinely attract a lot of opposition, though. One thing that is fairly consistent, though, is that the proportion of people who support these schemes after they're introduced and have had a chance to settle in tends to be about 10-20% more than the proportion supporting beforehand. That won't help for this by election, though. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Mar 2, 2023 19:42:44 GMT
As I've mentioned up the thread the Tory is explicitly opposing these measures. Of course if his campaign is pretty feeble nobody will know. In my experience these sorts of things, regardless of their objective merit (and I can see the argument, particularly in a very congested place like Oxford), are seldom popular. Since it's a joint City/County initiative all the main parties except the Tories are implicitly supporting it (although that won't stop some careful local nuance of course!). So is the Independent Evans, according to web evidence. As my prediction on that thread indicates, my own guess is that the Indy will get most of the anti-traffic measure vote. I would not be amazed if they actually win. Also it's a very long time since any Conservative has done well anywhere in Oxford. However, given my recent record in predicting, everything I have just said may very well turn out to be a pile of wombat's dos. Relative to the rest of the city, the Conservatives haven't done terribly in Littlemore and the demographics don't work against them quite as much as elsewhere. But that's really not saying much! |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Mar 2, 2023 20:02:42 GMT
As I've mentioned up the thread the Tory is explicitly opposing these measures. Of course if his campaign is pretty feeble nobody will know. In my experience these sorts of things, regardless of their objective merit (and I can see the argument, particularly in a very congested place like Oxford), are seldom popular. Since it's a joint City/County initiative all the main parties except the Tories are implicitly supporting it (although that won't stop some careful local nuance of course!). So is the Independent Evans, according to web evidence. As my prediction on that thread indicates, my own guess is that the Indy will get most of the anti-traffic measure vote. I would not be amazed if they actually win. Also it's a very long time since any Conservative has done well anywhere in Oxford.However, given my recent record in predicting, everything I have just said may very well turn out to be a pile of wombat's dos. Indeed. A near contemporary of mine (at Cambridge) went on to teach at Oxford and served on the council as a Liberal for a while in the 1980s. He and I exchanged notes on local elections in the two cities (as I served on Cambridge City Council). Both saw a gradual then (seemingly) terminal decline in Tory support, even in former strongholds. And both cities had finely tuned and well-resourced Labour parties with a strong commitment to local government which gradually became dominant. Labour will fight these hard. But it's tough fighting some rather misleading (and personally malevolent) social media on top of the inevitable difficulties of defending a complex and intrusive scheme before people get the chance to see if it actually works. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Mar 2, 2023 20:11:22 GMT
Actually it wasn't until about 1991 when it was moved from South Oxfordshire along with Old Marston and Risinghurst Thanks Pete, I'll get that reworded. I hadn't realised the boundary change was quite that late. |
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 2, 2023 20:21:49 GMT
KENT CC; Hythe West (Ind elected as Con resigned) Candidates: COOPER, Tony (Labour) GABRIS, John (Conservative) HAWKINS, Jenni (Green) MEYERS, Ian Barry (Independent) WEATHERHEAD, Andy (Independent) 2021: Con 2592; Grn 1997; Lab 499; UKIP 189 2017: Grn 2234; Con 2044; UKIP 493; Lab 340; LD 280 Andy Weatherhead is the former councillor whose resignation triggered the by-election. His resignation followed a Hope Not Hate investigation which revealed that he had previously been a prominent member of fascist organisation New British Union. Ian Meyers was the UKIP candidate in 2017 and sitting district councillor for Romney Marsh ward, which is partially in this division. Tony Cooper contested Romney Marsh ward for Labour in 2019. The rest of Romney Marsh ward is of course in Romney Marsh division, which both Meyers and Cooper contested unsuccessfully in 2021. Jenni Hawkins contested East Folkestone ward (not in this division at all) for the Greens in 2019. Current Council: Con 60; Lab 7; LD 6; Grn 4; Swale Ind 1; Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents 1; 2 vacancies Just to add, there are significant boundary changes between the 2021 seat and that of 2017 when the Greens won... In case that helps with predictions Are you sure about that? I thought the new boundaries were brought in for the 2017 county elections. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 2, 2023 20:25:55 GMT
Just to add, there are significant boundary changes between the 2021 seat and that of 2017 when the Greens won... In case that helps with predictions Are you sure about that? I thought the new boundaries were brought in for the 2017 county elections. Indeed the Greens first won the equivalent seat in 2013 and held in 2017 despite unfavourable boundary changes... |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 2, 2023 20:38:07 GMT
So is the Independent Evans, according to web evidence. As my prediction on that thread indicates, my own guess is that the Indy will get most of the anti-traffic measure vote. I would not be amazed if they actually win. Also it's a very long time since any Conservative has done well anywhere in Oxford.However, given my recent record in predicting, everything I have just said may very well turn out to be a pile of wombat's dos. Indeed. A near contemporary of mine (at Cambridge) went on to teach at Oxford and served on the council as a Liberal for a while in the 1980s. He and I exchanged notes on local elections in the two cities (as I served on Cambridge City Council). Both saw a gradual then (seemingly) terminal decline in Tory support, even in former strongholds. And both cities had finely tuned and well-resourced Labour parties with a strong commitment to local government which gradually became dominant. Labour will fight these hard. But it's tough fighting some rather misleading (and personally malevolent) social media on top of the inevitable difficulties of defending a complex and intrusive scheme before people get the chance to see if it actually works. Dermot Roaf? If so, I voted for him when he was first elected. |
|
|
|
Post by greenman on Mar 2, 2023 21:43:05 GMT
It seems to me that the 2022 results in Hythe West included the collapse of the UKIP vote into the Conservative campaign, which will not happen this time with to former ultra-right candidates. So the question will be what happens to that former 595 lead the Conservatives had.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Mar 2, 2023 22:23:07 GMT
Indeed. A near contemporary of mine (at Cambridge) went on to teach at Oxford and served on the council as a Liberal for a while in the 1980s. He and I exchanged notes on local elections in the two cities (as I served on Cambridge City Council). Both saw a gradual then (seemingly) terminal decline in Tory support, even in former strongholds. And both cities had finely tuned and well-resourced Labour parties with a strong commitment to local government which gradually became dominant. Labour will fight these hard. But it's tough fighting some rather misleading (and personally malevolent) social media on top of the inevitable difficulties of defending a complex and intrusive scheme before people get the chance to see if it actually works. Dermot Roaf? If so, I voted for him when he was first elected. I'm wondering if it's my old friend and contemporary Michael Hart, one of the many (people and parties) who represented Central ward in its early days. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Mar 2, 2023 22:34:04 GMT
Indeed. A near contemporary of mine (at Cambridge) went on to teach at Oxford and served on the council as a Liberal for a while in the 1980s. He and I exchanged notes on local elections in the two cities (as I served on Cambridge City Council). Both saw a gradual then (seemingly) terminal decline in Tory support, even in former strongholds. And both cities had finely tuned and well-resourced Labour parties with a strong commitment to local government which gradually became dominant. Labour will fight these hard. But it's tough fighting some rather misleading (and personally malevolent) social media on top of the inevitable difficulties of defending a complex and intrusive scheme before people get the chance to see if it actually works. Dermot Roaf? If so, I voted for him when he was first elected. No. Michael Hart in Central Ward. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Mar 2, 2023 23:09:11 GMT
Michael was both city and county Councillor for Central Ward when I started as an undergraduate IIRC
|
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Mar 2, 2023 23:32:39 GMT
Actually it wasn't until about 1991 when it was moved from South Oxfordshire along with Old Marston and Risinghurst Thanks Pete, I'll get that reworded. I hadn't realised the boundary change was quite that late. I remember visiting Oxford greyhound track with my father as a child in the early 1990s. We took the bus from the city centre and I was surprised how rough that corridor out to Cowley was. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 2, 2023 23:36:58 GMT
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE Byker
QURESHI, Hayder Alam Umor (Labour Party) 591
HARTLEY, Nick (Green Party candidate) 375
RIDYARD, Mark William (Liberal Democrats) 188
WHELAN HARVEY, Aaron (The Conservative Party Candidate) 107
Turnout 19.2%
|
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Mar 2, 2023 23:46:33 GMT
Byker
Lab 46.9% -18.1
Grn 29.7% +15.3
LDm 14.9% +9.2
Con 8.5% -6.5
That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 2, 2023 23:49:31 GMT
Byker Lab 46.9% -18.1 Grn 29.7% +15.3 LDm 14.9% +9.2 Con 8.5% -6.5 That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home. I expect at least some of them will be back out voting Labour come May... |
|
|
|
Post by melthamhd94nn on Mar 2, 2023 23:51:47 GMT
I don't think Qureshi is a Geordie name.
|
|
