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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 11:24:53 GMT
TAMWORTH Belgrave
THOMPSON, Paul David (Local Conservatives) 334
ADAMS, Craig (Labour Party) 314
TAYLOR, Charlie (Independent) 251
COOPER, Ian Stuart (Reform UK) 40
BAYLISS, Adam (The Green Party) 35
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2023 11:34:04 GMT
Sigh, vote Indy get Tory.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 11:34:33 GMT
Obviously that's a major factor, but the growth of both Green and LibDem vote is quite significant, Compared with last time Green vote up101 and LD vote up 80, whilst Labour down 650 and Tories down 179. Sometimes the numerical change figures tell us more than percentages, and I think this is one of those. You think that those are 'quite significant'? On a 19.2% Turnout? LD vote up by 80? It was a closer than expected contest between two parties, Green and Labour, by fewer than a fifth of the voters! The LD and CON votes were peripheral to the contest and are not signifiers. And it is March and a local government by-election where even a name might have had the most significance on that result? I think you misunderstand my use of the word significant in this context. You maybe take it to mean an indicator of future performance, say next time the ward is fought or even in a general election. That would obviously be absurd and was certainly not the intended meaning. For the LibDems in this sort of context the crisis is existential. In an unfriendly area in a difficult election in March, starting in fourth place significantly behind the Greens who have an outside chance of winning if they can exert an effective squeeze, we might have been expected to vanish almost completely. Instead, we not only improved vote share but actually increased the numerical vote. The Greens clearly should have been better at squeezing - an old failing, less in evidence these days. The Lib Dems clearly still have some worthwhile organisation in place, even when used on a hopeless cause. That was what to me was the significance. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Mar 3, 2023 11:34:59 GMT
I imagine Labour will be disappointed not to win the Tamworth ward but it's an area where they've been battered by the Tories in recent years. Always tough to gauge though when an 'Independent' takes 26% of the vote.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2023 11:35:54 GMT
I imagine Labour will be disappointed not to win the Tamworth ward but it's an area where they've been battered by the Tories in recent years. Always tough to gauge though when an 'Independent' takes 26% of the vote though. Will be interesting to compare with the CC result where there is no Independent standing. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 11:41:02 GMT
Tamworth Belgrave Con 334 Lab 314 Ind 251 RefUK 40 Green 35 hmm...didn't quite expect that...but it is Tamworth, after all. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 11:43:24 GMT
KENT Hythe West
HAWKINS Jenni (The Green Party) 1,568
GABRIS John (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,081
COOPER Tony (Labour Party) 384
MEYERS Ian Barry (Independent) 306
WEATHERHEAD Andy (Independent) 237
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Post by andrewp on Mar 3, 2023 11:44:16 GMT
I imagine Labour will be disappointed not to win the Tamworth ward but it's an area where they've been battered by the Tories in recent years. Always tough to gauge though when an 'Independent' takes 26% of the vote though. As you say it’s tough to gauge with the Independent standing, but I think Labour will be/ should be disappointed with that. I’m not sure that ward is an area where they have been ‘battered’, more ‘ incredibly frustrated’. It is an area that has swung to the Tories, but that is the fourth time in the last 9 years that Labour have lost by less than 100 votes. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2023 11:52:33 GMT
3 Labour holds, but all 3 probably ended up with more a sense if relief than anything else. Really don't think Labour will be too bothered by the Newcastle result for reasons already stated. They knew they faced a challenge in the Oxford seats due to the proposed traffic measures, but the long standing locally effective party machine delivered. And these things often become more popular (or at least less unpopular) once in place. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 3, 2023 12:02:19 GMT
I imagine Labour will be disappointed not to win the Tamworth ward but it's an area where they've been battered by the Tories in recent years. Always tough to gauge though when an 'Independent' takes 26% of the vote though. Will be interesting to compare with the CC result where there is no Independent standing. Not quite the same area. It won‘t be an awful comparison but it won‘t be a good one either. |
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Post by phil156 on Mar 3, 2023 12:27:37 GMT
It be interesting to see the percentages on these two by-elections to see the share of the vote up or down
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 3, 2023 12:38:01 GMT
3 Labour holds, but all 3 probably ended up with more a sense if relief than anything else. Really don't think Labour will be too bothered by the Newcastle result for reasons already stated. They knew they faced a challenge in the Oxford seats due to the proposed traffic measures, but the long standing locally effective party machine delivered. And these things often become more popular (or at least less unpopular) once in place. the clean air zones are becoming quite the hot button topic for local councils running up to May |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 3, 2023 12:39:38 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 12:46:09 GMT
Watling South: 1,851 BPs verified. Turnout 19.2%
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 3, 2023 12:49:29 GMT
KENT Hythe West HAWKINS Jenni (The Green Party) 1,568 GABRIS John (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,081 COOPER Tony (Labour Party) 384 MEYERS Ian Barry (Independent) 306 WEATHERHEAD Andy (Independent) 237 We (as a County Group) did have high hopes here but you can never quite tell how things will go... BTW - that's for the Greens rather than the Indies though we are the Green and Indie Group on KCC! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 13:11:10 GMT
I'm very gratified by Andy Weatherhead's poor showing TBH.
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Post by oldhamexile on Mar 3, 2023 13:28:38 GMT
I'm very gratified by Andy Weatherhead's poor showing TBH. Did he campaign as a 'Europe a Nation' Mosleyite, or on immigration-related issues, or on local issues? I haven't seen any of his election material. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 13:40:24 GMT
KENT Hythe West HAWKINS Jenni (The Green Party) 1,568 GABRIS John (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,081 COOPER Tony (Labour Party) 384 MEYERS Ian Barry (Independent) 306 WEATHERHEAD Andy (Independent) 237 We (as a County Group) did have high hopes here but you can never quite tell how things will go... BTW - that's for the Greens rather than the Indies though we are the Green and Indie Group on KCC! I take it you weren't looking forward to welcoming Mr Weatherhead into your ranks? |
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Post by aidypiez on Mar 3, 2023 13:52:37 GMT
Watling South result:
Carol Dean, Labour - 714
Alex Farrell, Conservatives - 858
Barry Gwilt, Reform UK - 110
Helen Miller-Viney, Lib Dem - 160
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2023 13:58:36 GMT
Watling South result: Carol Dean, Labour - 714 Alex Farrell, Conservatives - 858 Barry Gwilt, Reform UK - 110 Helen Miller-Viney, Lib Dem - 160 I know this isn't in the same place as the district byelection, but Tamworth is a fairly homogenous place overall and so this is IMO still a strong indicator that Labour would have won the Belgrave seat without an Independent standing. |
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