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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 0:20:12 GMT
The Oxford city council turnout was 34% incidentally.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 0:24:59 GMT
Byker Lab 46.9% -18.1 Grn 29.7% +15.3 LDm 14.9% +9.2 Con 8.5% -6.5 That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home. Obviously that's a major factor, but the growth of both Green and LibDem vote is quite significant, Compared with last time Green vote up101 and LD vote up 80, whilst Labour down 650 and Tories down 179. Sometimes the numerical change figures tell us more than percentages, and I think this is one of those. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 0:25:56 GMT
OXFORDSHIRE Rose Hill and Littlemore
Trish Elphinstone (Labour Party) 1,169
Michael Anthony Evans (Independent) 1,046
Timothy Douglas Patmore (The Conservative Party Candidate) 227
David Nicholas Thomas (Green Party) 120
Theo Jupp (Liberal Democrats) 75
Callum Joseph Joyce (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 23
Turnout 34%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 0:29:07 GMT
OXFORD Littlemore
DOUGLAS, Sandy ( Labour Party) 607
EVANS, Michael Anthony (Independent) 507
PATMORE, Timothy Douglas (The Conservative Party Candidate) 135
THOMAS, David Nicholas (Green Party) 65
JUPP, Theo (Liberal Democrat) 26
COX, Rachel Louise (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 12
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 0:47:42 GMT
Remarkable how similar the two Oxford results are- more or less you can take the district vote for each party and double it and you've got the County result!
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Post by greenman on Mar 3, 2023 1:03:30 GMT
Littlemore
Labour 607
Independent 507
Conservative 135
Green 65
LD 26
TUSC 12
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 3, 2023 7:45:39 GMT
Just to add, there are significant boundary changes between the 2021 seat and that of 2017 when the Greens won... In case that helps with predictions  Are you sure about that? I thought the new boundaries were brought in for the 2017 county elections. Apologies - you are quite right - I ought to have remembered - I was also a victim of those boundary changes! |
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Post by batman on Mar 3, 2023 7:55:34 GMT
Remarkable how similar the two Oxford results are- more or less you can take the district vote for each party and double it and you've got the County result! yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 3, 2023 8:28:48 GMT
Remarkable how similar the two Oxford results are- more or less you can take the district vote for each party and double it and you've got the County result! yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. I’d imagine Labour put in a shift to get both candidates home. I’m not normally inspired by peripatetic candidates so that won’t have made the job easier. It does demonstrate how far the Tory brand has sunk in Oxford that even with a substantial local issue in play they couldn’t make any real headway. I doubt that they can muster resources for a strong campaign nowadays. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 3, 2023 8:42:30 GMT
yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. I’d imagine Labour put in a shift to get both candidates home. I’m not normally inspired by peripatetic candidates so that won’t have made the job easier. It does demonstrate how far the Tory brand has sunk in Oxford that even with a substantial local issue in play they couldn’t make any real headway. I doubt that they can muster resources for a strong campaign nowadays. Whilst I'm sure that's true of the Oxford Tories to some extent, I think we must remember that any party can suffer from a strong local indy with a local issue, and the indy here does seem to have got some traction and captured almost all the protest vote. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 3, 2023 8:43:26 GMT
3 Labour holds, but all 3 probably ended up with more a sense if relief than anything else.
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jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96
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Post by jdc on Mar 3, 2023 8:48:07 GMT
Remarkable how similar the two Oxford results are- more or less you can take the district vote for each party and double it and you've got the County result! yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. I'd say it's not just contrary to most people's expectations, it's actively bizarre.
It means the independent who ran on a platform of "I'm local" and "Rights for motorists, no low traffic neighbourhoods" did no better in the area he is local to, and which is highly car-dependent and has a vocal anti-LTN faction than he did in the area he isn't local to, and which has been a low traffic neighbourhood since (I think) the 1950s, and would be utterly ruined by the removal of that LTN as it would become a handy short cut for a large proportion of the residential population to the ring road...
It also of course means people were no more or less inclined to vote for the "yes to cars" candidate in the election to the authority which actually makes transport policy than the authority which doesn't, but you can't reasonably expect the voters to understand two-tier government!
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Post by matureleft on Mar 3, 2023 9:06:25 GMT
yes, that's contrary to most people's expectations. I saw the county result first & thought uh oh, we could be in trouble in the city, but a few seconds later there was considerable relief. I'd say it's not just contrary to most people's expectations, it's actively bizarre.
It means the independent who ran on a platform of "I'm local" and "Rights for motorists, no low traffic neighbourhoods" did no better in the area he is local to, and which is highly car-dependent and has a vocal anti-LTN faction than he did in the area he isn't local to, and which has been a low traffic neighbourhood since (I think) the 1950s, and would be utterly ruined by the removal of that LTN as it would become a handy short cut for a large proportion of the residential population to the ring road...
It also of course means people were no more or less inclined to vote for the "yes to cars" candidate in the election to the authority which actually makes transport policy than the authority which doesn't, but you can't reasonably expect the voters to understand two-tier government!
Well maybe. But to expand on my previous point, Labour’s county candidate was peripatetic - she had stood elsewhere a few times. Their city candidate however had a powerful personal story (to all but the anti-vax brigade). In addition, as you say, while it is a joint scheme, the county has a greater responsibility for it. So possibly a combination of a better City Labour candidate and some discrimination between authorities among the small portion of the electorate who understand these things. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2023 9:20:53 GMT
I'd say it's not just contrary to most people's expectations, it's actively bizarre.
It means the independent who ran on a platform of "I'm local" and "Rights for motorists, no low traffic neighbourhoods" did no better in the area he is local to, and which is highly car-dependent and has a vocal anti-LTN faction than he did in the area he isn't local to, and which has been a low traffic neighbourhood since (I think) the 1950s, and would be utterly ruined by the removal of that LTN as it would become a handy short cut for a large proportion of the residential population to the ring road...
It also of course means people were no more or less inclined to vote for the "yes to cars" candidate in the election to the authority which actually makes transport policy than the authority which doesn't, but you can't reasonably expect the voters to understand two-tier government!
Well maybe. But to expand on my previous point, Labour’s county candidate was peripatetic - she had stood elsewhere a few times. Their city candidate however had a powerful personal story (to all but the anti-vax brigade). In addition, as you say, while it is a joint scheme, the county has a greater responsibility for it. So possibly a combination of a better City Labour candidate and some discrimination between authorities among the small portion of the electorate who understand these things. "the small portion".. vanishingly small, I guess. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 3, 2023 9:38:46 GMT
Byker Lab 46.9% -18.1 Grn 29.7% +15.3 LDm 14.9% +9.2 Con 8.5% -6.5 That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home. Obviously that's a major factor, but the growth of both Green and LibDem vote is quite significant, Compared with last time Green vote up101 and LD vote up 80, whilst Labour down 650 and Tories down 179. Sometimes the numerical change figures tell us more than percentages, and I think this is one of those. You think that those are 'quite significant'? On a 19.2% Turnout? LD vote up by 80? It was a closer than expected contest between two parties, Green and Labour, by fewer than a fifth of the voters! The LD and CON votes were peripheral to the contest and are not signifiers. And it is March and a local government by-election where even a name might have had the most significance on that result? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2023 10:53:48 GMT
And in the Newcastle contest, many voters knew they are going to the polls again in two months. Very possibly encouraging a Green protest vote "flutter".
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2023 10:58:43 GMT
Tamworth, Belgrave: 976 BPs verified. Turnout about 17.4%.
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Post by threecrowns on Mar 3, 2023 11:16:07 GMT
Recount in Tamworth between Labour and Conservative according to a local journalist.
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Mar 3, 2023 11:18:42 GMT
And in the Newcastle contest, many voters knew they are going to the polls again in two months. Very possibly encouraging a Green protest vote "flutter". I do like how so many Greens are on Twitter acting as though it's some sort of great victory. You'd think they gained Byker. But I suppose when your electoral record in urban Northumberland is repeatedly failing to take Whitley Bay and imposing a ten-point penalty on the Labour performance at the Coast you have to take what 'successes' you can get. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 3, 2023 11:23:39 GMT
Tamworth Belgrave
Con 334
Lab 314
Ind 251
RefUK 40
Green 35
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