Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on May 15, 2023 12:58:50 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice? I certainly wouldn't put it past The Sultan, but equally the official result isn't (unfortunately) that unbelievable. If he had any movement in his favour, you could have called him the Sultan of Swing |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2023 13:40:09 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice? I certainly wouldn't put it past The Sultan, but equally the official result isn't (unfortunately) that unbelievable. The opposition spent ages last night going on about uncounted votes and the AKP disruptively challenging every single ballot, and that kılıçdaroğlu was going to win in the first round. Then suddenly they did a U-turn and became incredibly defeatist. Either something has happened to those ballots (in which case why are the CHP not out for blood?) or the result is accurate (in which case why are the AKP not celebrating?) Something strange seems to be going on but nobody seems to know or understand what as far as I can work out |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on May 15, 2023 13:42:36 GMT
Perhaps the penny dropped that the opinion polling was inaccurate.
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Post by manchesterman on May 15, 2023 13:52:26 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice? I certainly wouldn't put it past The Sultan, but equally the official result isn't (unfortunately) that unbelievable. If he had any movement in his favour, you could have called him the Sultan of Swing or if the swing was against him, he would be in Dire Straits! |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on May 15, 2023 14:01:45 GMT
If he had any movement in his favour, you could have called him the Sultan of Swing or if the swing was against him, he would be in Dire Straits! Erdogan may well find himself doing the walk of life yet. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 15, 2023 14:05:39 GMT
or if the swing was against him, he would be in Dire Straits! Erdogan may well find himself doing the walk of life yet. Hopefully he'll be doing the walk of no life into his grave soon... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 15, 2023 14:16:16 GMT
It's still not over, of course, but it's fairly clear that the opposition should have run İmamoğlu, or someone else who manages to both have a degree of charisma and also does not come across quite so... well... genepool CHP.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 15, 2023 14:24:02 GMT
It's still not over, of course, but it's fairly clear that the opposition should have run İmamoğlu, or someone else who manages to both have a degree of charisma and also does not come across quite so... well... genepool CHP. Incredibly hard to see how the opposition come back from this. They have massively underperformed expectations and are seemingly accepting that the results are legitimate. Their supporters are going to pretty downhearted heading into the runoff. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 15, 2023 14:24:25 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice? No. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on May 15, 2023 16:52:21 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice? I certainly wouldn't put it past The Sultan, but equally the official result isn't (unfortunately) that unbelievable. The opposition spent ages last night going on about uncounted votes and the AKP disruptively challenging every single ballot, and that kılıçdaroğlu was going to win in the first round. Then suddenly they did a U-turn and became incredibly defeatist. Either something has happened to those ballots (in which case why are the CHP not out for blood?) or the result is accurate (in which case why are the AKP not celebrating?) Something strange seems to be going on but nobody seems to know or understand what as far as I can work out My guess would be that the result is not entirely accurate, and that any inaccuracies will be very largely in Erdogan's favour - but that the opposition (possibly because opinion polls were suggesting they were definitely in the lead) were assuming that Erdogan was going for distinctly larger inaccuracies than he actually was, and would use them to claim an absolute majority on the first round. As it is, I suspect that Erdogan, on actual votes, is not measurably behind Kilicdaroglu (as the opposition were expecting) but either level-pegging with or very slightly ahead, and has promptly accepted the runoff rather than trying to dodge it by using claims of having an absolute majority. And, with Ince pulling out of the election just a few days back but with his name still on the ballot paper, it looks as if a few people may still have voted for him, but not that many (probably well under 1%) - and that while Ogan is not keen on Erdogan's religious policies, he is even less keen on any consideration for the Kurds. Which will be a real problem for Kilicdaroglu in the runoff, because he could well lose more votes than he gains by trying to get Ogan's support. Which Erdogan has probably calculated could be quite enough by itself to almost guarantee him a majority in the runoff. And finally, of course, in past elections, the CHP has sometimes benefited from practices not entirely dissimilar to those the opposition was complaining about last night. Not for quite a long while now - but some otherwise potential supporters will probably have long memories. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2023 17:42:19 GMT
The opposition spent ages last night going on about uncounted votes and the AKP disruptively challenging every single ballot, and that kılıçdaroğlu was going to win in the first round. Then suddenly they did a U-turn and became incredibly defeatist. Either something has happened to those ballots (in which case why are the CHP not out for blood?) or the result is accurate (in which case why are the AKP not celebrating?) Something strange seems to be going on but nobody seems to know or understand what as far as I can work out My guess would be that the result is not entirely accurate, and that any inaccuracies will be very largely in Erdogan's favour - but that the opposition (possibly because opinion polls were suggesting they were definitely in the lead) were assuming that Erdogan was going for distinctly larger inaccuracies than he actually was, and would use them to claim an absolute majority on the first round. As it is, I suspect that Erdogan, on actual votes, is not measurably behind Kilicdaroglu (as the opposition were expecting) but either level-pegging with or very slightly ahead, and has promptly accepted the runoff rather than trying to dodge it by using claims of having an absolute majority. And, with Ince pulling out of the election just a few days back but with his name still on the ballot paper, it looks as if a few people may still have voted for him, but not that many (probably well under 1%) - and that while Ogan is not keen on Erdogan's religious policies, he is even less keen on any consideration for the Kurds. Which will be a real problem for Kilicdaroglu in the runoff, because he could well lose more votes than he gains by trying to get Ogan's support. Which Erdogan has probably calculated could be quite enough by itself to almost guarantee him a majority in the runoff. And finally, of course, in past elections, the CHP has sometimes benefited from practices not entirely dissimilar to those the opposition was complaining about last night. Not for quite a long while now - but some otherwise potential supporters will probably have long memories.I have also seen some twitter commentary suggesting that selecting kılıçdaroğlu in particular did not help, although obviously English language twitter is unlikely to be that representative of the Turkish electorate |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 15, 2023 20:18:18 GMT
It's nonsense to argue that the opposition would have won if only they chose someone else - it was always going to be a huge task to beat Erdogan given his control of Turkish society.
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Post by uthacalthing on May 15, 2023 20:51:58 GMT
What we have here is the Western liberals arguing that the poll must be rigged when even the defeated opposition are not.
And both Erdo and the opposition agreeing to a run-off so explicitly agreeing that it was fairly close.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2023 22:05:06 GMT
It's nonsense to argue that the opposition would have won if only they chose someone else - it was always going to be a huge task to beat Erdogan given his control of Turkish society. I'm not sure many people are claiming that, but they are arguing that a different candidate would have come closer, which (according to people far more knowledgeable than me) may have some truth to it |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 15, 2023 23:40:51 GMT
It's nonsense to argue that the opposition would have won if only they chose someone else - it was always going to be a huge task to beat Erdogan given his control of Turkish society. The trouble with hypotheticals is that you never know anything for certain, but it seems reasonable to assert that a candidate who is not a walking stereotype of a dull Kemalist functionary would have done better than Kilicdaroglu, who is exactly that. How much better is harder to tell as Turkish society is very polarized, but certainly a bit better. |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on May 16, 2023 3:42:26 GMT
The fawning over Kilicdaroglu in western media was utterly embarrassing.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 16, 2023 12:27:30 GMT
Didn't really notice that much "fawning" tbh, much more a case of "he isn't Erdogan and this alone makes him preferable". Which is a reasonable position IMO.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2023 12:41:10 GMT
Turkish citizens in countries that supported Erdoğan are apparently being given 5 days to vote in round two as opposed to 2 days in countries that votes for Kılıçdaroğlu
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2023 15:03:03 GMT
Turkish citizens in countries that supported Erdoğan are apparently being given 5 days to vote in round two as opposed to 2 days in countries that votes for Kılıçdaroğlu Cleverly on his way to justify this. 😬 |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 16, 2023 16:57:20 GMT
Turkish citizens in countries that supported Erdoğan are apparently being given 5 days to vote in round two as opposed to 2 days in countries that votes for Kılıçdaroğlu Cleverly on his way to justify this. 😬 Is there a term for the inverse of nominative determinism? |
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