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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 11:07:34 GMT
The exact date hasn't been confirmed but Turkey goes to the polls on or before 18th June. This is a two-round presidential election plus a vote for all 600 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM).
As a reminder, AKP hold 286 seats with confidence and supply provided by the MHP (ultra-nationalists) and BBP (a more avowedly Islamic version of the MHP). The MHP has a complicated relationship with the AKP but can be said these days to be firmly within its orbit.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2023 11:20:30 GMT
Do they still have that ridiculous threshold level?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 11:27:06 GMT
A quick guide to the main parties.
AKP: the party of government since 2002, winning six general elections in a row. Somewhat but not entirely sceptical of Atatürk and his legacy, the party has a complex record. The questionable attitude to democracy and rights is well-documented, but there is little doubt that Turkey has prospered under its stable rule. Its powerbase lies in the more traditionalist parts of the country, notably the Black Sea coast (Erdogan himself has his roots in Rize), much of central Anatolia, and the urban poor of Istanbul and Ankara, most of whom have their roots in those areas anyway.
CHP- possibly best compared to Congress in India, but more competent. These are the heirs of Atatürk, not that he'd be too pleased by their recent record. Allegedly social democratic, they are somewhat of a big tent and appeal to a mix of left-wing voters, civil servants, ardent secularists and minorities such as the Alevi (indeed they are led by an Alevi). Traditionally, they are particularly strong in Izmir and Thrace, and currently control Istanbul.
MHP- as mentioned, ultra-nationalists aligned to the Grey Wolves, who are a designated terrorist group in several countries.
HDP- a left-wing party but traditionally seen as defenders of Kurdish interests amongst others. Complicated links with PKK figures have led it to clash severely with any and all parties at different times. There have been previous attempts to have it banned.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 11:28:11 GMT
Do they still have that ridiculous threshold level? I'll check but I believe it's now down to 7 per cent. Edit: yes, it is indeed now 7 per cent. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 4, 2023 11:39:05 GMT
Well, here's hoping that at least the opposition make a better job of it than they did last year in Hungary.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 12:11:21 GMT
Well, here's hoping that at least the opposition make a better job of it than they did last year in Hungary. They do appear to be but it might be the weakness of MHP that does for the AKP - the threshold is indeed 7 per cent (to answer Pete's question) and the polling shows them sinking below it. Which limits the AKP search for coalition partner. Some polls show Erdogan losing in the second round. But cohabitation wouldn't be out of the question. One to watch is the Iyi Party, who could be difficult coalition partners for the CHP. They're polling well and are no friends of AKP. They're right-wing Kemalists and their leader, former interior minister. Meral Aksener, is a bit of a bruiser - to the extent that she even decided to pick a fight with the army during the infamous "post-modern coup". Which takes some courage, to say the least. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 16:33:00 GMT
Doing some more digging turns up rumours that Tansu Çiller is aiming to make a shock return to the political scene in this election, allegedly as part of the Erdogan alliance.
This is strange anyway, but it would put her up against the aforementioned Meral Aksener- with whom she served in the Erbakan government before the coup (Erbakan being, in many ways, an inept version of Erdogan).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 4, 2023 17:09:00 GMT
One to watch is the Iyi Party, who could be difficult coalition partners for the CHP. They're polling well and are no friends of AKP. They're right-wing Kemalists and their leader, former interior minister. Meral Aksener, is a bit of a bruiser - to the extent that she even decided to pick a fight with the army during the infamous "post-modern coup". Which takes some courage, to say the least. From my limited research they don’t sound very right wing (despite coming from the MHP), is there anything in their politics that makes them unable to work with the CHP? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 18:00:59 GMT
One to watch is the Iyi Party, who could be difficult coalition partners for the CHP. They're polling well and are no friends of AKP. They're right-wing Kemalists and their leader, former interior minister. Meral Aksener, is a bit of a bruiser - to the extent that she even decided to pick a fight with the army during the infamous "post-modern coup". Which takes some courage, to say the least. From my limited research they don’t sound very right wing (despite coming from the MHP), is there anything in their politics that makes them unable to work with the CHP? They're certainly to the right of the CHP on most matters both social and economic, but enough links them that they will work together albeit with disputes. The ardent Kemalism and staunch pro-NATO position make for a good start. Plus, hating Erdoğan is an even better point to work from... |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 4, 2023 18:16:35 GMT
Do they still have that ridiculous threshold level? I'll check but I believe it's now down to 7 per cent. Edit: yes, it is indeed now 7 per cent. Back in 2002, when it was 10%, every single sitting MP was ejected from the National Assembly that election! Furthermore, Recep Tayyip Erdogan first came to power that year with almost a supermajority from a standing start despite his AKP only polling 34.28%. The AKP improved this to 46.58% in 2007 but actually lost 22 seats simply because the MHP passed the threshold! |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 4, 2023 19:45:12 GMT
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 4, 2023 21:12:41 GMT
Doing some more digging turns up rumours that Tansu Çiller is aiming to make a shock return to the political scene in this election, allegedly as part of the Erdogan alliance. This is strange anyway, but it would put her up against the aforementioned Meral Aksener- with whom she served in the Erbakan government before the coup (Erbakan being, in many ways, an inept version of Erdogan). Blimey! She was PM about 30 years ago. So she must be quite old (Wikipedia says 76) so I was thinking she’s more suitable for the Not Dead Yet thread rather than the Becoming PM Again thread. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 4, 2023 23:34:22 GMT
Doing some more digging turns up rumours that Tansu Çiller is aiming to make a shock return to the political scene in this election, allegedly as part of the Erdogan alliance. This is strange anyway, but it would put her up against the aforementioned Meral Aksener- with whom she served in the Erbakan government before the coup (Erbakan being, in many ways, an inept version of Erdogan). Blimey! She was PM about 30 years ago. So she must be quite old (Wikipedia says 76) so I was thinking she’s more suitable for the Not Dead Yet thread rather than the Becoming PM Again thread. Yes, not the most likely candidate to be relaunching their political career now. Turkey has form for this though. Bulent Ecevit left office in 1979, only to reappear in 1999. Suleyman Demirel served three times (and was Ecevit's predecessor and successor at one point) and reappeared after long gaps on multiple occasions-notably an 11-year absence. Demirel was a real survivor-he first took office in 1965, and finally departed in 1993. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 5, 2023 22:22:02 GMT
Imagine the Tories sacking Rishi and replacing him with John Major. Trusted pair of safe hands, you know.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 6, 2023 20:32:27 GMT
And in her era as PM she was quite attractive - i don't want to know, what she looks like now...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 7, 2023 11:03:56 GMT
And in her era as PM she was quite attractive - i don't want to know, what she looks like now... She was a real trailblazer: a female PM who issued an inept budget that terrified the markets and caused a run on the currency. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Feb 7, 2023 11:23:47 GMT
I wonder whether we will see more campaign trails in Germany and other European countries this year and how that will play out in the broader context of European unity, certain NATO applications and general international relations?
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 7, 2023 12:44:05 GMT
And in her era as PM she was quite attractive - i don't want to know, what she looks like now... She was a real trailblazer: a female PM who issued an inept budget that terrified the markets and caused a run on the currency. cheeky devil.  |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 7, 2023 13:00:48 GMT
will the tragic events in the South East of the country, and the 3 month state of emergency have any impact oon the election?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2023 13:32:12 GMT
And in her era as PM she was quite attractive - i don't want to know, what she looks like now... A quick google suggests she hasn't aged that badly, actually. |
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