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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2023 11:58:48 GMT
will the tragic events in the South East of the country, and the 3 month state of emergency have any impact oon the election? Very probably. Not just because of how Erdo handles it, but also because the state of emergency will cover quite a few HDP-voting areas. On a related note, an AKP deputy has died in the earthquake. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 8, 2023 13:37:24 GMT
Devastating earthquakes not infrequently have longer term effects, including politically speaking.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2023 18:15:27 GMT
Devastating earthquakes not infrequently have longer term effects, including politically speaking. On that very note, it turns out that Turkish taxpayers have been paying an earthquake levy since 1999. Originally it was Ecevit who introduced it, but it has been continued by the AKP. It seems a lot of Turks are questioning where the money actually went, because there seems to be no obvious public record. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2023 23:43:11 GMT
Is there any chance that the Turks will actually throw Erdo out?
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Post by johnloony on Feb 10, 2023 1:46:02 GMT
Is there any chance that the Turks will actually throw Erdo out? They probably will in the long term, one way or another. It depends a lot on whether my prediction comes true or not. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 11, 2023 11:57:36 GMT
Is there any chance that the Turks will actually throw Erdo out? It's possible. Although it might be more likely for him to survive but the AKP to get a battering in the assembly. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2023 13:47:26 GMT
Is there any chance that the Turks will actually throw Erdo out? It's possible. Although it might be more likely for him to survive but the AKP to get a battering in the assembly. Will he be able to find a way to bypass or otherwise crush the Assembly if that happens? I don't see him accepting that kind of constraint on his power |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 11, 2023 18:11:01 GMT
It's possible. Although it might be more likely for him to survive but the AKP to get a battering in the assembly. Will he be able to find a way to bypass or otherwise crush the Assembly if that happens? I don't see him accepting that kind of constraint on his power Now that's an interesting one. He has concentrated power in the exec (up to an including abolishing the role of PM). One of the CHP's major policies is a return to parliamentary supremacy. So yes, he probably can use his executive powers in some way, but the big problem is that it might just look too obvious and force a serious confrontation. That said, the aftermath of the earthquake might well do for him. These "construction amnesties" seem to be generating anger, and a decent amount of the Turkish construction industry has tight links to the AKP-who have of course overseen a building boom. |
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skyep
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Post by skyep on Mar 7, 2023 11:08:19 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 8, 2023 9:46:21 GMT
Aksener was right that he lacks appeal, but he's a fundamentally decent bloke and offers a real counterpoint to Erdo. By the by, the polls are thin on the ground but one poll last week showed Kilicdaroglu beating Erdogan. To be taken with a pinch of salt though. Right now, Kilicdaroglu could do with Muharrem Ince reading the room and dropping out, but that will probably not happen. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 8, 2023 16:36:15 GMT
I would have preferred one of the mayors, but Erdogan is trying to put the Mayor of Istanbul in prison on trumped up charges. I suspect a solid, straightforward figure might well be the best person for the opposition to rally around. I wonder about how the mmany voters in the earthquake struck areas will get a chance to express their preference?
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Post by markgoodair on May 11, 2023 12:36:48 GMT
After watching the two part program on BBC2 this week about Erdogan expect the streets to run red with blood if he loses.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 11, 2023 13:54:08 GMT
The main minor opposition candidate has dropped out. Will raise opposition hopes for a first round victory.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 11, 2023 14:13:53 GMT
The main minor opposition candidate has dropped out. Will raise opposition hopes for a first round victory. Allegedly because of a sex tape! Erdo is apparently working the diaspora hard in Germany. Which smacks of desperation a bit-lots of the diaspora don't have Turkish voting rights and lots of Turkish citizens in Germany are Kurds. |
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Post by rcronald on May 11, 2023 14:14:01 GMT
The main minor opposition candidate has dropped out. Will raise opposition hopes for a first round victory. Ince? |
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Post by markgoodair on May 11, 2023 16:03:36 GMT
The main minor opposition candidate has dropped out. Will raise opposition hopes for a first round victory. Ince? yes |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on May 11, 2023 16:10:05 GMT
The main minor opposition candidate has dropped out. Will raise opposition hopes for a first round victory. Ince? I thought something had happened in Wigan. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 11, 2023 17:19:10 GMT
I thought something had happened in Wigan. 300000% turnout by Turkish expats in Wigan. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on May 11, 2023 20:56:12 GMT
What do Turkish ballot papers look like? Do they have all the candidates printed on one sheet?
If so, what happens to votes of the people who tick the box next to Ince's name?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 11, 2023 20:58:36 GMT
Updated (i.e. without Ince) overView of alliances:  |
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