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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 17:15:33 GMT
Looking at provincial data, there’s 0% chance Erdogan is getting 50%.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 14, 2023 17:25:46 GMT
Looking at provincial data, there’s 0% chance Erdogan is getting 50%. Definitely true (vote rigging aside) but the early numbers aren't a total disaster for him either. Good chance it goes to a run off IMO. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on May 14, 2023 17:30:57 GMT
Fingers crossed that Erdogan is out. A bit uneasy about how he and his followers would react though. For sure. They would not react well at all.
However, there is one big difference between this and today's other national election. Even with significantly more government influence than before, support of the military for him would be very far from absolute.
That last point is still very probably true. However: When you commented earlier upon a tweet showing the contrasting ways in which Kilicdaroglu and Erdogan were finishing their campaigns, you said: Unfortunately, that's not a matter of just "at the moment" - it also has applied to politics in Turkey at a substantial majority of dates since the Republic of Turkey 100 years ago later this year; and to elections rather less often only because politicians who would have ended their campaigns as Erdogan has were fairly consistently legally blocked from fighting any election which they might win for most of the 20th century. And, for much the same period, if by any chance an elected Turkish government so much as included coalition partners who would not have ended their campaigns as Kilicdaroglu has, the Turkish military would throw it out within weeks, or months at the most. It was a great day for Turkish democracy when, in 2003, Erdogan not only managed to win an election and form a government but also did not find himself forcibly thrown out of office. And even more so when, over about the next five years, he not only managed to survive multiple attempts to throw him out of power undemocratically but to remove, with clear popular support, several institutional mechanisms which had been introduced specifically to give legal backing to such attempts. Unfortunately, it has clearly not been good for Turkish democracy that Erdogan has remained in power long enough to start reintroducing similar institutional mechanisms differing only in being designed to keep him in, rather than out, of power. It would be better if he had lost power democratically five or (in retrospect) ten years ago - though the 2016 coup was a double disaster not only in trying to do this according to the old undemocratic Turkish traditions but also providing Erdogan with the support and opportunity for his measures since then. One just has to hope, not just that Kilicdaroglu does indeed win this election, but that he and his government will then act to protect and restore democracy in Turkey rather than turn the Turkish institutional/constitutional clock back to its pre-2003 condition. Turkey needs to move away permanently from a system in which the military (backed by carefully selected lawyers) decides which democratic outcomes are acceptable and which are not. (To be clear, I don't believe that Kilicdaroglu is wanting to move back to the old system, though I also believe that unfortunately quite a large number of his current supporters probably want just that. However, I am also fairly sure that most of his supporters are looking for a better, more democratic system, not one determined by the military - and I trust that any government he forms will be trying to produce that better system.) |
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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 17:51:28 GMT
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 14, 2023 17:57:30 GMT
It is blinding obvious what they are doing. It is the Trump 2020 strategy of convincing your supporters that these late "vote dumps" are illegitimate. |
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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 17:58:42 GMT
It is blinding obvious what they are doing. It is the Trump 2020 strategy of convincing your supporters that these late "vote dumps" are illegitimate. except Trump kind of believed his own conspiracy and wasn’t responsible for the Dem votes being late, so it’s actually much worse. |
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Post by rcronald on May 14, 2023 18:24:01 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 14, 2023 18:27:34 GMT
Euronews have a live blog and note the following diaspora votes for the presidency. Using CHP and AKP as shorthand here to save typing.
UK: 81 per cent CHP
France, Germany: both 65 per cent AKP
Italy: 53 per cent CHP
Sweden: 57 per cent CHP
USA: 80 per cent CHP
Nothing for the Netherlands or Belgium but that would be interesting to compare (presuming the former at least will resemble the German vote).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2023 18:40:22 GMT
CHP now over 50% in Azerbaijan. I would have thought given the relationship between the two countries, especially over Armenia, they would have mostly supported AKP, am I wrong about that?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 14, 2023 18:42:15 GMT
Note that most Turkish citizens in Britain are actually Kurds and that the people in Britain who are Turks are mostly Turkish Cypriots.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2023 19:00:03 GMT
Euronews have a live blog and note the following diaspora votes for the presidency. Using CHP and AKP as shorthand here to save typing. UK: 81 per cent CHP France, Germany: both 65 per cent AKP Italy: 53 per cent CHP Sweden: 57 per cent CHP USA: 80 per cent CHP Nothing for the Netherlands or Belgium but that would be interesting to compare (presuming the former at least will resemble the German vote). Yes Turkish voters in the Netherlands overwelmingly support Erdogan. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2023 19:11:08 GMT
Although the numbers being released by/to the media appear to be very early numbers (only c. 15% of the overseas vote), and apparently they are basically being selected to flatter AKP
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pl
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Post by pl on May 14, 2023 19:37:38 GMT
Euronews have a live blog and note the following diaspora votes for the presidency. Using CHP and AKP as shorthand here to save typing. UK: 81 per cent CHP France, Germany: both 65 per cent AKP Italy: 53 per cent CHP Sweden: 57 per cent CHP USA: 80 per cent CHP Nothing for the Netherlands or Belgium but that would be interesting to compare (presuming the former at least will resemble the German vote). Yes Turkish voters in the Netherlands overwelmingly support Erdogan. You DENKE? (I'll get my coat....) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 14, 2023 20:05:54 GMT
Erdogan just fell below 50% on the Anadolu Agency count (at 89% of ballot boxes opened).
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Post by adlai52 on May 14, 2023 20:28:36 GMT
Figures are being provided as % of ballot boxes rather than % of votes counted, is there anyway of understanding what impact this is having on the current tally?
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 14, 2023 20:42:25 GMT
Figures are being provided as % of ballot boxes rather than % of votes counted, is there anyway of understanding what impact this is having on the current tally? It means that what is left is disproportionately large urban ballot boxes which are generally favourable to the opposition, and if you believe the opposition, a great many ballot boxes they have won which the AKP are challenging to delay the result. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 14, 2023 21:23:54 GMT
Sure is, that - as usual - some rigging was going on.
But hardly all of those 7% the CHP-man will have ended below the opinionPolls.
And - given the peculiarly pecuniary circumStances - a remarkably strong showing of Erdogan (and MHP!).
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 14, 2023 21:53:06 GMT
Seems like the 2008 Zimbabwe election is being replayed...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 14, 2023 22:07:40 GMT
Çankaya isn't just any old CHP stronghold. It's the location of Atatürk's mausoleum.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2023 10:43:09 GMT
So, any actual evidence of significant electoral malpractice?
I certainly wouldn't put it past The Sultan, but equally the official result isn't (unfortunately) that unbelievable.
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