Prediction Competition - December 2022

[batman]

ARUN, Arundel & Walberton :  Green 40 C 38 Lab 22

NORFOLK, Gaywood N. & Central :  Lab 44  C 40  Green 9  LD 7

SOUTHAMPTON,  Bitterne :  Lab 47  C 40  Green  6  LD 5 TUSC 2

WAVERLEY, Chiddingfold & Dunsfold :   LD 41 C 39 Lab 20

W.LOTHIAN, Broxburn, Uphall & Winchburgh : Lab  26 SNP  25 C 14 Green  11  Ind Horne 9  LD  6 Alba 5  Ind Laidlaw 4. Labour win

[peterl]

ARUN, Arundel & Walberton : Green 44 C 31 Lab 25
NORFOLK, Gaywood N. & Central : Lab 46 C 37 Green 12 LD 5
SOUTHAMPTON, Bitterne : Lab 49 C 35 Green 8 LD 6 TUSC 2
WAVERLEY, Chiddingfold & Dunsfold : LD 48 C 34 Lab 18
W.LOTHIAN, Broxburn, Uphall & Winchburgh : Lab 30 SNP 28 C 12 Green 10 Ind Horne 8 LD 5 Ind Laidlaw 4 Alba 3 . SNP win on transfers.

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 19 by-elections including a “double” by-election during December.

- 5 by-elections on 1 December
- 7 including the “double” election on 8 December
- 6 on 15 December
- 1 on 22 December

10 by-elections including the “double” are for District Councils, 3 of which including the “double” were last contested in May and the remaining 7 in 2019
4 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in May and 3 in 2019
2 are for Scottish councils, both of which were last contested in May
2 are for County Councils, both last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan council, last contested in May

Conservatives defend 8 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation (1 of which was sitting as a North Devon Independent)
Labour defend 4 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Greens defend 1 seat following a disqualification
Independents defend 4 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Highwoods Group defend the 2 seats in the “double” election (although have not put up any candidates), both following resignations

With all SOPNs now published, there is a full slate of 20 Conservative candidates, 17 Liberal Democrats, 16 Labour, 7 Greens, 2 SNP, 2 Scottish Greens, 2 South Holland Independents and 1 apiece for TUSC, UKIP and Alba together with 7 Independents contesting 3 seats
- a total of 76 candidates for 20 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Top vote for the double election and both first preference winner and winner after transfers to be specified for the Scottish contests.

[johnloony]

Arun: Con 47 Grn 31 Lab 22
King’s Lynn: WPK 99.98
Norfolk: Con 49 Lab 31 Grn 11 LD 9
Southampton: Con 48 Lab 39 Grn 6 LD 5 TUSC 2
Waverley: Con 47 LD 32 Lab 21
West Lothian: SNP 42 Lab 31 Con 14 Grn 4 LD 4 IndH 3 IndL 1 Alba 1

[batman]

DISQUALIFY HIM The King's Lynn one doesn't add up to 100

[kevinf]

Arun
Green 49, Con 41, Lab 10
Norfolk
Lab 40, Con 38, LD 12, Green 10
Southampton
Lab 45, Con 36, Green 9, LD 8, Tusc 2
Waverley
LD 60, Con 30, Lab 10
West Lothian SNP 31, Lab 25, Con 20, Green 8, LD 7, Alba 4, Ind Horne 3, Ind Laidlaw 2 (SNP win)

[Richard Cromwell]

Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh, West Lothian

SNP	27%
LAB	26%	Win On Transfers
CON	20%
GRN	11%
LDEM	9%
Alba	6%
Chris Horne	1%
Steven Laidlaw	0%

Gaywood North and Central, Norfolk

LAB	45%
CON	35%
LDEM	12%
GRN	8%

Bitterne, Southampton

LAB	52%
CON	36%
GRN	7%
LDEM	4%
TUSC	1%

Arundel & Walberton, Arun

GRN	59%
CON	21%
LAB	20%

Chiddingfold and Dunsfold, Waverley

CON	43%
LAB	30%
LDEM	27%

[batman]

It isn't that unusual for a disowned candidate to win an election. It happened in Wycombe (disowned candidate elected as Labour) in a council by-election not many years ago, and of course Neale Hanvey won as SNP in the 2019 general election despite being disowned by his party. Probably in both cases local party members continued to campaign anyway.

[Tony Otim]

Arun: Grn 45.3; Con 37.8; Lab 16.9;
Norfolk: Con 42.5; Lab 40.0; LD 12.9; Grn 4.6
Southampton: Lab 44.3; Con 43.4; LD 6.4; Grn 4.3; TUSC 1.6
Waverley: LD 44.6; Con 41.2; Lab 14.2
West LOthian: SNP 39.2; Lab 34.6; Con 10.0; Horne 6.2; Grn 4.8; LD 3.3; Laidlaw 1.1; Alba 0.8 (Lab to win on transfers... just)

[andrewp]

Arun. Arundel and Walberton. Green 50, Con 36, Lab 14
Norfolk. Gaywood North and Central Lab 45, Con 40, LD 8, Green 7
Southampton. Bitterne. Lab 50, Con 39, Green 5, LD 4, TUSC 2
Waverley. Chiddingfold and Dunsfold. LD 55, Con 36, Lab 9
West Lothian. Broxburn etc SNP 39, Lab 30, Con 13, LD 6, Green 4, Horne 4, Laidlaw 3, Alba 1. SNP win.

[grahammurray]

Nov 30, 2022 20:52:18 GMT batman said:

It isn't that unusual for a disowned candidate to win an election. It happened in Wycombe (disowned candidate elected as Labour) in a council by-election not many years ago, and of course Neale Hanvey won as SNP in the 2019 general election despite being disowned by his party. Probably in both cases local party members continued to campaign anyway.

Along with the likelihood that 40%+ of votes will already have been cast.

[Robert Waller]

Arun, Arundel and Walberton. Green 46, Con 42, Lab 12

Norfolk, Gaywood North and Central Lab 44, Con 46, LD 5, Green 5

Southampton, Bitterne. Lab 48, Con 41, Green 5, LD 4, TUSC 2

Waverley, Chiddingfold and Dunsfold. LD 54, Con 40, Lab 6

West Lothian, Broxburn etc SNP 39, Lab 33, Con 12, LD 5, Green 4, Horne 4, Laidlaw 2, Alba 1. SNP win.

[rightleaning]

Arun. Arundel and Walberton. Gn 51, Con 34, Lab 15
Norfolk. Gaywood North and Central Lab 46, Con 38, Gn 9, LD 7
Southampton. Bitterne. Lab 51, Con 36, Gn 7, LD 5, TUSC 1
Waverley. Chiddingfold and Dunsfold. LD 58, Con 34, Lab 8
West Lothian. Broxburn etc SNP 41, Lab 28, Con 10, LD 7, Gn 6, Horne 4, Laidlaw 3, Alba 1. SNP win.

[iainbhx]

Arun DC, Arundel and Walberton: Con 46, Grn 43, Lab 11
Norfolk CC, Gaywood North and Central: Lab 46, Con 43, LDm 7, Grn 4
Southampton UA, Bitterne: Lab 48, Con 40, Grn 7, LDm 4, TUSC 1
Waverley DC, Chiddingfold and Dunsfold. LDm 50, Con 43, Lab 7
West Lothian SUA, Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh: SNP 38, Lab 32, Ind Horne 9, Con 8, Grn 5, Ind Laidlaw 4, LDm 3, Alba 1 SNP Win

[robbienicoll]

10 entries to open the final monthly contest for 2022, all on time and correct.

Arundel and Walberton, Arun: 8 Green hold, with iainbhx and johnloony Conservative gain.

Gaywood North and Central, Norfolk: 7 Labour gain from Conservative, with johnloony, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold.

Bitterne, Southampton: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 0.9% (Tony Otim) to 16% (Richard Cromwell). Johnloony Conservative hold with majority of 9%.

Chiddingfold and Dunsfold, Waverley: 8 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with johnloony and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh, West Lothian: 6 have SNP ahead on first preferences and gain from Labour after transfers, Richard Cromwell and Tony Otim have SNP ahead on first preferences but Labour holding after transfers, peterl has Labour ahead on first preferences but SNP winning after transfers, and batman has Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HjK3o9m5NQi_1R60Ja51Gxt-5E2QrRXRZoaXaY-u0y0/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Tony Otim for winning the first 'week' of the new month!

[johnloony]

BRIGHTON & HOVE: Lab 40 Con 33 Green 23 LD 3 UKIP 1
COLCHESTER: Lab 47 Con 30 LD 23
DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY: Con 40 SNP 37 Lab 13 Grn 6 LD 4
LINCOLNSHIRE: Ind 74 Con 26
MEDWAY: Con 39 Grn 20 Lab 16 IndC 7 IndJ 6 LD 6 IndS 6
NORTH DEVON: LD 54 Con 31 Grn 11 Lab 4
SOUTH HOLLAND: Ind 66 Con 34

[batman]

BRIGHTON & HOVE, Wish : Lab 45 C 32 Green 16 LD 5 UKIP 2

COLCHESTER, Highwoods : Lab 47 C 36 LD 17

DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY, Mid-Galloway & Wigtown W : SNP 41 C 34 Lab 12 Green 10 LD 3. SNP win

LINCOLNSHIRE, Spalding W : Ind 71 C 29

MEDWAY, Peninsula : C 27 Ind Spalding 24 Lab 17 Green 16 Ind Jackson 7 Ind Crozer 6 LD 3

N.DEVON, Landkey : LD 48 C 36 Green 10 Lab 6

S.HOLLAND, Spalding Monks House : Ind 68 C 32

All in all a lot of Spaldings this week.

[kevinf]

Brighton
Lab 40, Con 38, Green 16, LibDem 4, Ukip 2
Colchester
Lab 45, Con 39, LIbDem 16
Dumfries
Snp 40, Con 30, Lab 18, Green 7, LibDem 5
Lincolnshire
SHI 69 Con 31
Medway
Ind Crozer 27, Con 23, Ind Johnson 12, Lab 11, Ind Spaulding 10, Green 9, LibDem 8
N Devon
LibDem 47, Con 31, Green 12, Lab 10
South Holland
SHI 60, Con 40

[peterl]

Brighton Lab 43, Con 32, Green 18, LibDem 5, UKIP 2
Colchester Lab 48, Con 37, LIbDem 15 (Lab win both)
Dumfries SNP 43, Con 25, Lab 20, Green 8, LibDem 4
Lincolnshire SHI 67 Con 33
Medway Ind Crozer 29, Con 23, Ind Spaulding 13, Ind Johnson 10, Green 10, Lab 9, LibDem 6
N Devon LibDem 50, Con 29, Green 15, Lab 6
South Holland SHI 61, Con 39