Prediction Competition - December 2022

[Tony Otim]

This is how you throw the lead away

Brighton & Hove: Lab 35.5; Grn 28.2; Con 26.2; LD 6.5; UKIP 3.6
Colchester: Lab 43.4; Con 31.7; LD 24.9 (both Labour)
Dumfries & Galloway: Con 44.5; SNP 31.4; Lab 12.6; Grn 7.2; LD 4.3 (Con gain)
Lincolnshire: SHI 82.1; Con 17.9
Medway: Con 22.4; Spalding 18.9; Crozer 16.9; Lab 14.7; Grn 11.8; Jackson 9.7; LD 5.6
North Devon: LD 45.8; Con 28.3; Grn 15.0; Lab 10.9
South Holland: SHI 70.2; Con 29.8

[Richard Cromwell]

Landkey, North Devon

LDEM	39%
CON	28%
GRN	21%
LAB	12%

Spalding West, Lincolnshire

South Holland Independents	88%
CON	12%

Spalding Monks House, South Holland

South Holland Independents	81%
CON	19%

Mid Galloway and Wigtown West, Dumfries and Galloway

SNP	29%
CON	26%
LAB	22%	Win On Transfers
GRN	13%
LDEM	10%

Highwoods, Colchester

LAB	50%
CON	30%
LDEM	20%

Peninsula, Medway

George Crozer	27%
Sharon Jackson	24%
LAB	14%
GRN	12%
Chris Spalding	11%
CON	9%
LDEM	3%

Wish, Brighton and Hove

LAB	43%
CON	25%
GRN	24%
LDEM	7%
UKIP	1%

[andrewp]

Brighton and Hove. Wish. Lab 44, Con 28, Green 21, LD 5, UKIP 2
Colchester, Highwoods, Lab 47, Con 32, LD 21. 2x Lab win
Dumfries and Galloway. Con 38, SNP 36, Lab 17, Green 5, LD 4. Con win
Lincolnshire. Spalding West. SHI 70, Con 30
Medway. Peninsula. Spalding 28, Con 25, Crozer 23, Lab 9, Green 6, Jackson 6, LD 3
Noth Devon. Landkey. LD 44, Con 30, Green 20, Lab 6
South Holland, Spalding Monks House. SHI 65, Con 35

[Robert Waller]

Brighton and Hove, Wish. Lab 46, Con 24, Green 24, LD 5, UKIP 1

Colchester, Highwoods, Lab 43, Con 30, LD 27. 2 x Lab wins

Dumfries and Galloway. Con 40, SNP 35, Lab 12, Green 8, LD 6. Con win

Lincolnshire, Spalding West. SHI 85, Con 15

Medway, Peninsula. Spalding 11, Con 20, Crozer 22, Lab 12, Green 9, Jackson 21, LD 5

North Devon, Landkey. LD 48, Con 32, Green 15, Lab 5

South Holland, Spalding Monks House. SHI 80, Con 20

[iainbhx]

Brighton and Hove UA, Wish : Lab 44, Con 26, Grn 22, LDm 6, UKIP 2
Colchester DC, Highwoods: Lab 45, Con 30, LDm 25 2*Lab win
Dumfries & Galloway SUA, Mid Galloway and Wigtown West: Con 42, SNP 33, Lab 13, LDm 8, Grn 4 Con win
Lincolnshire CC, Spalding West: SHI 78, Con 22
Medway UA, Peninsula: Ind Crozier 27, Con 21, Ind Jackson 19, Ind Spalding 11, Ldm 9, Grn 7, Lab 6
North Devon DC, Landkey: LDm 48, Con 29, Grn 16, Lab 7
South Holland DC, Spalding Monks House: SHI 74, Con 26

[rightleaning]

Brighton and Hove. Wish. Lab 48, Green 24, Con 22, LD 5, UKIP 1
Colchester, Highwoods, Lab 49, Con 31, LD 20. 2x Lab win
Dumfries and Galloway. Con 37, SNP 36, Lab 17, Green 6, LD 4. Con win
Lincolnshire. Spalding West. SHI 74, Con 26
Medway. Peninsula. Crozier 26, Spalding 25, Con 25, Lab 8, Green 6, Jackson 6, LD 4
North Devon. Landkey. LD 46, Con 30, Green 19, Lab 5
South Holland, Spalding Monks House. SHI 70, Con 30

[rockefeller]

Brighton & Hove, Wish - LAB 36%, GRN 33%, CON 28% OTH 3%

[robbienicoll]

10 full and 1 partial entry for this week, all on time but with Robert Waller picking up 1 fault for going over in Dumfries and Galloway.

Wish, Brighton and Hove: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 2% (kevinf) to 24% (Right Leaning).

Highwoods, Colchester: 100% Labour gain x2 from Highwoods Group, majorities ranging from 6% (kevinf) to 20% (Richard Cromwell).

Mid Galloway and Wigtown West, Dumfries and Galloway: 6 Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from Labour after transfers, with batman, kevinf and peterl SNP ahead on firsts and gain after transfers, and Richard Cromwell with the SNP ahead on firsts and Labour holding after transfers.

Spalding West, Lincolnshire: 100% South Holland Independents win, with majorities ranging from 34% (peterl) to 76% (Richard Cromwell).

Peninsula, Medway: 6 Independent (Crozer) win, with batman, johnloony and Tony Otim Conservative gain, and andrewp Independent (Spalding) win.

Landkey, North Devon: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 11% (Richard Cromwell) to 23% (johnloony).

Spalding Monks House, South Holland: 100% South Holland Independents win, with majorities ranging from 20% (kevinf) to 62% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SLd3XqmoOFiQbQ9nmUc-TASWyZccvoXkT5F1gMj6EKw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to andrewp for the week and taking the lead for the month.

[batman]

must do better (note to self)

[peterl]

AMBER VALLEY DC; Wingfield: Con 58, Lab 27, Green 9, Lib Dem 6
IPSWICH DC; Priory Heath: Lab 65, Con 21, Lib Dem 14
PENDLE DC: Barrowford & Pendleside: Lab 46, Con 43, Lib Dem 11
SOUTH KESTEVEN DC; Toller: Con 59, Lib Dem 41
TEST VALLEY DC; Andover Romans: Lib Dem 57, Con 43
WIGAN MBC; Ashton: Lab 57, Con 32, Lib Dem 11

[johnloony]

Amber Valley: Con 400 Lab 200 Green 100 LD 30 Con 55 Lab 28 Green 13 LD 4
Ipswich: Lab 600 Con 240 LD 90 Lab 64 Con 26 LD 10
Pendle: Lab 800 Con 620 LD 150 Lab 51 Con 39 LD 10
South Kesteven: LD 63 Con 37
Test Valley: LD 400 Con 360 LD 53 Con 47
Wigan: Lab 900 Con 300 LD 100 Lab 69 Con 23 LD 8

[Tony Otim]

Amber Valley: Con 56.6; Lab 28.4; Grn 9.5; LD 5.5
Ipswich: Lab 63.0; Con 26.5; LD 10.5;
Pendle: Lab 44.7; Con 42.7; LD 12.6
South Kesteven: LD 54.5; Con 45.5
Test Valley: LD 59.2; Con 40.8
Wigan: Lab 68.5; Con 24.1; LD 7.4

[kevinf]

Amber Valley
Con 50, Lab 38, LD 7, Green 5
Ipswich
Lab 65, Con 20, LD 15
Pendleton
Lab 50, Con 43, LD 7
S Kesteven
LD 55, Con 45
Test Valley
LD 51, Con 49
Wigan
Lab 64, Con 30, LD 6

[Richard Cromwell]

Toller, South Kesteven

CON	61%
LDEM	39%

Priory Heath, Ipswich

LAB	70%
CON	27%
LDEM	3%

Ashton, Wigan

LAB	73%
CON	22%
LDEM	5%

Barrowford & Pendleside, Pendle

CON	43%
LAB	49%
LDEM	8%

Andover Romans, Test Valley

CON	51%
LDEM	49%

Wingfield, Amber Valley

CON	49%
LAB	30%
GRN	13%
LDEM	8%

[batman]

AMBER VALLEY, Wingfield : C 63 Lab 28 Green 5 LD 4

IPSWICH, Priory Heath : Lab 65 C 27 LD 8

PENDLE, Barrowford & Pendleside : C 47 Lab 46 LD 7

S.KESTEVEN, Toller : C 58 LD 42

TEST VALLEY, Andover Romans : LD 53 C 47

WIGAN, Ashton : Lab 68 C 28 LD 4

[andrewp]

Amber Valley. Wingfield. Con 55 Lab 28 Green 12 LD 5
Ipswich, Priory Heath Lab 65 Con 26 LD 9
Pendle. Barrowford and Pendleside Con 48 Lab 42 LD 10
South Kesteven. Toller. Con 55 LD 45
Test Valley. Andover Romans LD 61, Con 39
Wigan. Ashton. Lab 70 Con 25 Ld 5

[Robert Waller]

Amber Valley: Con 53; Lab 31; Grn 10; LD 5

Ipswich: Lab 60; Con 27; LD 13

Pendle: Lab 42; Con 43; LD 15

South Kesteven: LD 55; Con 45

Test Valley: LD 60; Con 40

Wigan: Lab 67; Con 23; LD 10

[iainbhx]

Amber Valley DC, Wingfield: Con 52, Lab 31, Grn 12, LDm 5
Ipswich DC, Priory Heath: Lab 62, Con 28, LDm 10
Pendle DC, Barrowford & Pendleside: Con 44, Lab 42, LDm 14
South Kesteven DC, Toller: LDm 52, Con 48
Test Valley DC, Andover Romans: LDm 58, Con 42
Wigan MBC, Ashton: Lab 65, Con 28, LDm 7

[rightleaning]

Amber Valley. Wingfield. Con 51, Lab 30, Green 14, LD 5
Ipswich, Priory Heath Lab 60, Con 28, LD 12
Pendle. Barrowford and Pendleside Con 44, Lab 41, LD 15
South Kesteven. Toller. LD 51, Con 49
Test Valley. Andover Romans LD 59, Con 41
Wigan. Ashton. Lab 64 Con 29 LD 7