J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 23, 2022 16:01:06 GMT
Which just shows how tricky this prediction business can be, Especially about the future. |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 23, 2022 18:21:04 GMT
10 entries for the final by-election of the year, all on time and correct. I'm happy to accept the first of John Loony's predictions given the late faults the amended version would've incurred. Incidentally the initial version was closer! Normanby, Redcar and Cleveland: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (kevinf) to 32% (Richard Cromwell). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wWD15aAxqwWqII4yA26awILjOpP3xUujT1PQ-kWyw-o/edit?usp=sharing - congratulations to andrewp for the monthly win and commiserations to rightleaning for being pipped to first. Thanks to everyone who has taken part and made the competition good fun over the past year. If there are any watchers who want to join in then January will be a great start - you'll be most welcome. Hope everyone has a great festive season and see you all in a couple of weeks. Oh! I won anyway! Haha! I was the only one who correctly predicted Lib Dem going down a lot. The only reason why I wanted to change my predikshun (although it was too late) was because of the research I did about the two independent candidates. My in-depth highly technical analysis revealed the highly sophisticated nuance that R had stood before whereas M didn’t. |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 23, 2022 18:27:06 GMT
10 entries for the final by-election of the year, all on time and correct. I'm happy to accept the first of John Loony's predictions given the late faults the amended version would've incurred. Incidentally the initial version was closer! Normanby, Redcar and Cleveland: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (kevinf) to 32% (Richard Cromwell). Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wWD15aAxqwWqII4yA26awILjOpP3xUujT1PQ-kWyw-o/edit?usp=sharing - congratulations to andrewp for the monthly win and commiserations to rightleaning for being pipped to first. Thanks to everyone who has taken part and made the competition good fun over the past year. If there are any watchers who want to join in then January will be a great start - you'll be most welcome. Hope everyone has a great festive season and see you all in a couple of weeks. Oh! I won anyway! Haha! I was the only one who correctly predicted Lib Dem going down a lot. The only reason why I wanted to change my predikshun (although it was too late) was because of the research I did about the two independent candidates. My in-depth highly technical analysis revealed the highly sophisticated nuance that R had stood before whereas M didn’t. Oh, M had stood before, just two elections previous in the same ward. However, R appeared to have a more active campaign on Facebook. |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 28, 2022 23:22:15 GMT
Chipping Snothampton: LD 43 RA 24 Con 22 Lab 11
Grimbly: Lab 67 Con 17 Green 13 LD 3
Llanplwmp: Ind 86 PC 14
Port Mouseweasiel: Con 37 LD 29 IndZ 15 MK 7 IndP 5 Lab 4 Green 3
South Woldcrumble: Con 58 Lab 19 LD 18 RefUK 2 Heritage 1 UKIP 1 TUSC 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 29, 2022 6:49:47 GMT
Chipping Snothampton: LD 43 RA 24 Con 22 Lab 11 Grimbly: Lab 67 Con 17 Green 13 LD 3 Llanplwmp: Ind 86 PC 14 Port Mouseweasiel: Con 37 LD 29 IndZ 15 MK 7 IndP 5 Lab 4 Green 3 South Woldcrumble: Con 58 Lab 19 LD 18 RefUK 2 Heritage 1 UKIP 1 TUSC 1 Are they all counting tonight? |
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Post by batman on Dec 29, 2022 7:58:51 GMT
Southwold doesn't seem to be crumbling if this result is correct.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 29, 2022 9:25:10 GMT
Southwold doesn't seem to be crumbling if this result is correct. But given our record for prediction accuracy? |
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Post by batman on Dec 29, 2022 9:42:48 GMT
you have a point.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 29, 2023 1:36:32 GMT
Chipping Snothampton: LD 43 RA 24 Con 22 Lab 11 Grimbly: Lab 67 Con 17 Green 13 LD 3 Llanplwmp: Ind 86 PC 14 Port Mouseweasiel: Con 37 LD 29 IndZ 15 MK 7 IndP 5 Lab 4 Green 3 South Woldcrumble: Con 58 Lab 19 LD 18 RefUK 2 Heritage 1 UKIP 1 TUSC 1 Chipping Snothampton: Liberal Democrats 563 (62.8%) Residents Association 119 (13.3%) Labour 117 (13.0%) Conservative 98 (10.9%) Grimbly: Labour 1,588 (57.0%) Green 771 (27.7%) Conservative 226 (8.1%) Liberal Democrats 203 (7.3%) Llanplwmp: Independent 300 (67.3%) Plaid Cymru 146 (32.7%) Port Mouseweasiel: Liberal Democrats 423 (25.5%) Independent Ploppy 336 (20.2%) Independent Zelley 328 (19.7%) Conservative 295 (17.8%) Mebyon Kernow 206 (12.4%) Green 45 (2.7%) Labour 28 (1.7%) South Woldcrumble: Conservative 890 (37.2%) Labour 632 (26.4%) Liberal Democrats 553 (23.1%) Reform 258 (10.8%) UKIP 38 (1.6%) Heritage 15 (0.6%) TUSC 8 (0.3%) |
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Post by batman on Dec 29, 2023 7:49:56 GMT
I prefer to predict the future not the past.
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Post by johnloony on Dec 29, 2023 8:31:48 GMT
I prefer to predict the future not the past. Those are the predictions I made a year ago. They have only just counted the votes, so now we can compare our predictions with the results. |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 29, 2023 13:36:22 GMT
So no party was capable of 'chipping' away at the LD vote in Snothampton.
The 2nd result was grimbly predictable.
For the 3rd result, the turnout is a concern and voter engagement needs plwmping up.
In the 4th, a gain was weasily secured by the LDs.
The final result saw the Conservative vote crumble, whilst just managing to hold on.
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