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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 22:55:50 GMT
You can't necessarily extrapolate what will happen in Green-Labour contests from a Conservative-Labour one. You say it’s a Conservative-Labour contest, but the Greens were only 7% behind Labour and 14% behind the Conservatives last time which is certainly doable in a by-election, and the Green vote wasn’t just squeezed, it evaporated this time. I obviously don’t think it’s going to do the same in wards the Greens properly contest, but if they want to remain the largest party or gain an overall majority then it’s wards like Wish that they may need to win. I read a few comments on Twitter from a Labour person in Hove repeatedly saying that all the switchers were Tory- Labour and the Greens have never got anywhere in Hove. He’s either forgotten 2019, is stupid or is b#lls*!tting. I agree, on paper, purely from the numbers in 2019 that is the sort of position that the Green’s sometimes win by elections from. |
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 10, 2022 6:24:34 GMT
The Greens took a seat off Labour in Hollingdean and Stanmer last May. Labour and the Greens have done well in by-elections in constituencies they hold, although the Greens may have hoped to do better in the Patcham by-election, which the Tories won. Incidentally, you can now walk from Southwick in Adur to Telscombe Cliffs in Lewes entirely through coastal wards with Green or Labour Councillors. It's easier for Labour to win Brighton & Hove as they have more winnable wards. Funnily enough, if you apply the Wish swing, the council would resemble Islington with 48 Labour Councillors and 6 Greens on current lines. Labour would win everything bar Regency and St Peter's & North Laine.
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Post by batman on Dec 10, 2022 9:13:21 GMT
.....and Labour has won Regency in the relatively recent past. Not that many years ago in fact, though briefly, it was a Lab - LD marginal, the only ward in Brighton where the LDs still had strong support.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 10, 2022 11:50:00 GMT
The other thing is, how actively were the Greens campaigning here? I have no idea, but the result certainly suggests not very (which would make sense, I would guess that there are at least 14 of the new wards that would be more promising for the Greens than Wish). Some earlier comments in this thread (which may not be entirely correct, of course) suggested they were taking it seriously. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 10, 2022 14:00:56 GMT
The other thing is, how actively were the Greens campaigning here? I have no idea, but the result certainly suggests not very (which would make sense, I would guess that there are at least 14 of the new wards that would be more promising for the Greens than Wish). Some earlier comments in this thread (which may not be entirely correct, of course) suggested they were taking it seriously. What comments? The only ones I can see were my own adding that the candidate was a former councillor and parliamentary candidate and James saying he was a nice guy. Now having a former councillor could be a sign that it was being taken seriously but it could also just be a willing name to be put down as a paper candidate. The suggestion may be entirely the interpretation of the reader. |
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 10, 2022 14:14:05 GMT
.....and Labour has won Regency in the relatively recent past. Not that many years ago in fact, though briefly, it was a Lab - LD marginal, the only ward in Brighton where the LDs still had strong support. In Brighton proper. The Lib Dems last B&H seat was Brunswick & Adelaide in Hove which borders Caroline Lucas's seat. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 10, 2022 15:26:29 GMT
Some earlier comments in this thread (which may not be entirely correct, of course) suggested they were taking it seriously. What comments? The only ones I can see were my own adding that the candidate was a former councillor and parliamentary candidate and James saying he was a nice guy. Now having a former councillor could be a sign that it was being taken seriously but it could also just be a willing name to be put down as a paper candidate. The suggestion may be entirely the interpretation of the reader. I tend to think that when we run former councillors, it often (but not invariably) means we are fighting it seriously, even when the raw figures suggest otherwise. I guess people made a similar assumption here, but evidently wrongly |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 10, 2022 16:09:15 GMT
What comments? The only ones I can see were my own adding that the candidate was a former councillor and parliamentary candidate and James saying he was a nice guy. Now having a former councillor could be a sign that it was being taken seriously but it could also just be a willing name to be put down as a paper candidate. The suggestion may be entirely the interpretation of the reader. I tend to think that when we run former councillors, it often (but not invariably) means we are fighting it seriously, even when the raw figures suggest otherwise. I guess people made a similar assumption here, but evidently wrongly That's fair enough and I made the same assumption myself in the prediction contest, but at the end of the day, it doesn't look like any of us actually know and the strongest evidence we have is the result which suggests otherwise... |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 13, 2022 11:57:48 GMT
As soon as the by election was over, Ollie was announced as the candidate for May for a completely different ward - so I'd assume that he was just a paper candidate here.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 11:17:07 GMT
As soon as the by election was over, Ollie was announced as the candidate for May for a completely different ward - so I'd assume that he was just a paper candidate here. Don't think you ever posted your scores for this week? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 16, 2022 11:25:11 GMT
As soon as the by election was over, Ollie was announced as the candidate for May for a completely different ward - so I'd assume that he was just a paper candidate here. Don't think you ever posted your scores for this week? Oh, you're right, I didn't. I was at hospital for tests most of Friday, and then it just slipped my mind. It at the moment, will post them later on this afternoon |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 16, 2022 19:03:40 GMT
Better late than never:
GWBWI
LDm +127
Lab +111
Grn -1
SNP -19
Con -60
ASV
LDm +2.1
Lab +1.9
Grn 0
SNP -0.3
Con -1.0
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