The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2022 11:24:51 GMT
Brighton and Colchester not being able to count on Thursday night isn't terribly impressive tbh. I’ve never understood the obsession with this. Why not count the following day when it’s cheaper, and you have regular staff on site to do it. And everyone can have a good night’s sleep. Soz, but I disagree. We are talking about local council byelections with at least relatively small electorates - assuming there are no problems or a photo finish in the actual result, everything can usually be done and dusted by around midnight. The only exception to this would normally be large sprawling rural divisions where the votes can sometimes take quite a while to be assembled. If anything your argument is better applicable to parliamentary byelections - but counting in the early hours now seems to be pretty de rigeur there nonetheless. Actually, when was the last one of those that was put off until the following day - Brecon and Radnor, possibly? |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 11:41:07 GMT
Colchester. Highwoods
Bickersteth Lab 653
Jay LD 618
Bacon Lab 503
Martin. Con 430
Longhorn-Baker Con 403
Whyborn LD 366
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2022 11:43:16 GMT
Well that's interesting just for the big gap in the LibDem candidates.
Did they actually advise voters to put one candidate first as the Greens sometimes do in multi-member elections?
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 11:55:03 GMT
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1787 (53.3%)
SNP: 879 (26.2%)
Labour: 326 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%)
Green: 172 (5.1%)
Con elected on first round
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 9, 2022 11:59:52 GMT
Well that's interesting just for the big gap in the LibDem candidates. Did they actually advise voters to put one candidate first as the Greens sometimes do in multi-member elections? Also notable that the successful Labour candidate beat the alphabet. The two candidates elected both live in the ward, whereas the unsuccessful Labour candidate lives in Mile End and the unsuccessful Lib Dem in Greenstead. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 9, 2022 12:01:21 GMT
Certainly a bigger gap between LD candidates than could just be explained by the “curse of the alphabet”.
Presumably this keeps the balance within the coalition as it is, so the LDs will be relieved that Lab didn’t take both seats.
In 1997 I believe the Colchester parliamentary seat was the closest three way marginal in the country - less than 2,000 votes between LD in first and Lab in third IIRC. Could we be heading for a similar result in 2024?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 9, 2022 12:04:09 GMT
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences: Conservative: 1787 (53.3%) SNP: 879 (26.2%) Labour: 326 (9.7%) Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%) Green: 172 (5.1%) Con elected on first round With everything going on that's a very good result for the conservatives. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 9, 2022 12:04:36 GMT
Well that's interesting just for the big gap in the LibDem candidates. Did they actually advise voters to put one candidate first as the Greens sometimes do in multi-member elections? Also notable that the successful Labour candidate beat the alphabet. The two candidates elected both live in the ward, whereas the unsuccessful Labour candidate lives in Mile End and the unsuccessful Lib Dem in Greenstead. In which case that's probably got a lot to do with it, given this is a ward that has spent the last eternity electing local Independents (although neither Mile End nor Greenstead are exactly a long way away). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2022 12:05:24 GMT
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences: Conservative: 1787 (53.3%) SNP: 879 (26.2%) Labour: 326 (9.7%) Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%) Green: 172 (5.1%) Con elected on first round Astonishing that Labour ever got anybody elected here in the first place, even with transfers. Is that why there was such a quick byelection btw, the candidate in question never expected to win? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 9, 2022 12:06:25 GMT
Certainly a bigger gap between LD candidates than could just be explained by the “curse of the alphabet”. Presumably this keeps the balance within the coalition as it is, so the LDs will be relieved that Lab didn’t take both seats. In 1997 I believe the Colchester parliamentary seat was the closest three way marginal in the country - less than 2,000 votes between LD in first and Lab in third IIRC. Could we be heading for a similar result in 2024? No, as at General elections the Liberal Democrats have fallen into a distant third place and will be open to a squeeze by Labour. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 12:08:05 GMT
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences: Conservative: 1787 (53.3%) SNP: 879 (26.2%) Labour: 326 (9.7%) Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%) Green: 172 (5.1%) Con elected on first round Astonishing that Labour ever got anybody elected here in the first place, even with transfers. Is that why there was such a quick byelection btw, the candidate in question never expected to win? I believe so. Both the Conservatives and SNP under nominated in May. The Labour candidate wasn’t expecting to be elected. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 9, 2022 12:10:58 GMT
Certainly a bigger gap between LD candidates than could just be explained by the “curse of the alphabet”. Presumably this keeps the balance within the coalition as it is, so the LDs will be relieved that Lab didn’t take both seats. In 1997 I believe the Colchester parliamentary seat was the closest three way marginal in the country - less than 2,000 votes between LD in first and Lab in third IIRC. Could we be heading for a similar result in 2024? No, as at General elections the Liberal Democrats have fallen into a distant third place and will be open to a squeeze by Labour. Since 2015 yes that's true, which is an exact reverse of what happened between 1997-2010! |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Dec 9, 2022 12:15:04 GMT
Well that's interesting just for the big gap in the LibDem candidates. Did they actually advise voters to put one candidate first as the Greens sometimes do in multi-member elections? I wasn't involved, but I understand the literature (and presumably also the canvassing) was centred on the successful candidate, yes. Not the first time the Colchester Lib Dems have used the approach of running a full slate but focusing on getting one candidate elected - see Wivenhoe in 2016 for another example. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 9, 2022 12:18:12 GMT
No, as at General elections the Liberal Democrats have fallen into a distant third place and will be open to a squeeze by Labour. Since 2015 yes that's true, which is an exact reverse of what happened between 1997-2010! What could possibly have happened between 2010 and 2015 to have so drastically changed things?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 9, 2022 12:25:42 GMT
If the LDs were going to make Colchester a 3-way marginal, they'd have to be winning Highwoods fairly comfortably. As it is, I suspect that at the next general election they will be concentrating all their resources in Essex on Chelmsford.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2022 12:29:09 GMT
Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences: Conservative: 1787 (53.3%) SNP: 879 (26.2%) Labour: 326 (9.7%) Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%) Green: 172 (5.1%) Con elected on first round Astonishing that Labour ever got anybody elected here in the first place, even with transfers. Is that why there was such a quick byelection btw, the candidate in question never expected to win? Well - it was 5 candidates for 4 seats, so they just needed to beat the Green to win... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2022 12:32:21 GMT
Astonishing that Labour ever got anybody elected here in the first place, even with transfers. Is that why there was such a quick byelection btw, the candidate in question never expected to win? Well - it was 5 candidates for 4 seats, so they just needed to beat the Green to win... But they presumably didn't expect that situation when they put themselves forward! |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 12:33:53 GMT
If the LDs were going to make Colchester a 3-way marginal, they'd have to be winning Highwoods fairly comfortably. As it is, I suspect that at the next general election they will be concentrating all their resources in Essex on Chelmsford. The last time there wasn’t an Independent on the ballot in Highwoods, which was in 2002, the result was LD 56%, Con 25%, Lab 19% |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Dec 9, 2022 12:36:41 GMT
If the LDs were going to make Colchester a 3-way marginal, they'd have to be winning Highwoods fairly comfortably. As it is, I suspect that at the next general election they will be concentrating all their resources in Essex on Chelmsford. The last time there wasn’t an Independent on the ballot in Highwoods, which was in 2002, the result was LD 56%, Con 25%, Lab 19% And two of the three Lib Dems elected then became the Independents whose resignation caused this by-election, while Labour only managed to field two candidates. A lot has changed since then, both locally and nationally. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2022 12:37:18 GMT
Well - it was 5 candidates for 4 seats, so they just needed to beat the Green to win... But they presumably didn't expect that situation when they put themselves forward! No, probably not, and neither did we. The funny thing is on these vote shares, Labour probably still have been in with a reasonable shout of the 4th seat in an all out election... |
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