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Post by rockefeller on Dec 9, 2022 16:20:25 GMT
Wish
LAB 1,519 58.5%
CON 756 29.2%
GRN 190 7.3%
LD 96 3.7%
UKIP 34 1.3%
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2022 16:44:36 GMT
Well that was a thumping victory, even bigger than expected and predicted. The Conservatives continue to be chased out of well off urban areas, which are also well educated, and (therefore) socially liberal. I wonder if they may be reduced to just 2 wards at the next Brighton & Hove elections. Bournemouth must be next in line for a similar change. Although the Conservative share was only down 7.5% there, far from their worst result recently and considering the area perhaps not that bad. The Green share was down 16% , so most of the Labour increase and the thumping victory probably came from that source. The net result of course is the same and bad news from the Conservatives but their own vote share did not collapse completely by any means. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 9, 2022 16:47:58 GMT
I do wonder if this could be the first local election in a while where the greens go backwards in there stronger areas.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2022 17:17:34 GMT
I do wonder if this could be the first local election in a while where the greens go backwards in there stronger areas. Well, I think it shows that where Labour are the clear challengers to the Conservatives they can squeeze our vote quite effectively. In terms of Brighton, I'm not sure it tells us much about the Conservative-Green battles (where the reverse may happen) or the Labour-Green battles as yet. The other thing is, how actively were the Greens campaigning here? I have no idea, but the result certainly suggests not very (which would make sense, I would guess that there are at least 14 of the new wards that would be more promising for the Greens than Wish). Also, with the Greens currently running the council there may be some negative effect - as seen with other parties in other authorities. That will of course still be a factor in May. |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 9, 2022 18:12:31 GMT
Our Wish has been granted. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Dec 9, 2022 18:25:30 GMT
I do wonder if this could be the first local election in a while where the greens go backwards in there stronger areas. They tend to be strong in areas where they haven’t actually been part or all the administration. Things tend to go downhill after that. Similar to how UKIP performed in that regard 🤭 |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2022 18:27:22 GMT
I do wonder if this could be the first local election in a while where the greens go backwards in there stronger areas. They tend to be strong in areas where they haven’t actually been part or all the administration. Things tend to go downhill after that. Similar to how UKIP performed in that regard 🤭 A theory based on a sole example and with more counter examples  |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Dec 9, 2022 18:28:27 GMT
They tend to be strong in areas where they haven’t actually been part or all the administration. Things tend to go downhill after that. Similar to how UKIP performed in that regard 🤭 A theory based on a sole example and with more counter examples It was worth putting it out there 😂 |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 9, 2022 19:14:51 GMT
They tend to be strong in areas where they haven’t actually been part or all the administration. Things tend to go downhill after that. Similar to how UKIP performed in that regard 🤭 A theory based on a sole example and with more counter examples It's not this forum's fault that there's only one example available. Unless the Greens have some parish councils somewhere. ISTR Ukip won a majority on one and didn't know whether to declare independence or seek to demetricate the swings. |
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Post by batman on Dec 9, 2022 19:45:56 GMT
Well that was a thumping victory, even bigger than expected and predicted. The Conservatives continue to be chased out of well off urban areas, which are also well educated, and (therefore) socially liberal. I wonder if they may be reduced to just 2 wards at the next Brighton & Hove elections. Bournemouth must be next in line for a similar change. Although the Conservative share was only down 7.5% there, far from their worst result recently and considering the area perhaps not that bad. The Green share was down 16% , so most of the Labour increase and the thumping victory probably came from that source. The net result of course is the same and bad news from the Conservatives but their own vote share did not collapse completely by any means. I think I have to disagree with that to some extent. Wish Ward is constructed very similarly to another ward where Labour had a notable triumph in the fairly recent past - Marine Ward in Worthing. In both cases, the housing just north of the seafront is for the most part of very high quality, and there remain many retirees who are pretty well-to-do - it's very pleasant around Wish Park and close to the sea. In both cases, the housing becomes more mixed the other side of the main road, closer to the railway line (the same railway line, in fact). I don't really think that, however safe the Hove parliamentary seat now is for Labour, it can be regarded as a very good result for the Tories for Labour to be polling twice as many votes as them, even though it is true that their vote did not completely collapse. I thought the Greens would do better than that, it's really not a good result for them even if it was mostly seen as a Lab - Con contest. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 9, 2022 19:53:09 GMT
I know nothing of the area but given the Lib Dems have been able to win from third is a few contests it's pretty disappointing green result
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 9, 2022 20:06:00 GMT
58% for Labour. Their top candidate got 34% in 2019. Labour gain Brighton & Hove council in 2023? certainly not impossible given we gained Westminster and Wandsworth. But I think dynamics will be different when we're up against greens |
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 9, 2022 20:07:24 GMT
Well that's interesting just for the big gap in the LibDem candidates. Did they actually advise voters to put one candidate first as the Greens sometimes do in multi-member elections? I saw lib Dems do it in a by election double vacancy in 2015 |
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 9, 2022 20:28:16 GMT
A theory based on a sole example and with more counter examples It's not this forum's fault that there's only one example available. Unless the Greens have some parish councils somewhere. ISTR Ukip won a majority on one and didn't know whether to declare independence or seek to demetricate the swings. There are places where we are the sole governing party in parish councils (Oswestry and Kenilworth being the first two that come to mind). But the original post talked about us being all or part of the administration, and there are dozens of councils where we are part of the administration on a principal authority council (Sheffield, Lewes, Herefordshire, and Malvern Hills being the first four that come to mind), and a few more where we have been, but aren't at the moment due to other parties losing ground (e.g. Worcester) or deciding to back out of agreements (though I can't think of any examples of that one off the top of my head). |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2022 20:48:02 GMT
It's not this forum's fault that there's only one example available. Unless the Greens have some parish councils somewhere. ISTR Ukip won a majority on one and didn't know whether to declare independence or seek to demetricate the swings. There are places where we are the sole governing party in parish councils (Oswestry and Kenilworth being the first two that come to mind). But the original post talked about us being all or part of the administration, and there are dozens of councils where we are part of the administration on a principal authority council (Sheffield, Lewes, Herefordshire, and Malvern Hills being the first four that come to mind), and a few more where we have been, but aren't at the moment due to other parties losing ground (e.g. Worcester) or deciding to back out of agreements (though I can't think of any examples of that one off the top of my head). Lancaster is currently a Green-led administration and we've been doing rather well in by-elections there. Stroud would be another example where we're currently the largest party in the administration (even if only because of the implosion of the local Labour party). |
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Post by southernliberal on Dec 9, 2022 20:56:59 GMT
I do wonder if this could be the first local election in a while where the greens go backwards in there stronger areas. I'd say Lambeth would count as this earlier in the year. The Greens captured their first seay there in 2006, lost it in 2010 (when local elections were held at same time as general election), then won a different seat to regain their presence in 2014. In 2018, they leapfrogged the tories to form the official opposition with 5 councillors (and 19% support across the Borough, up from 16%) This year however, despite increasing their borough wide support again by another three percentage points to 22%, they returned only two councillors, losing official opposition status to the Lib Dems (who won three, despite only winning about half of the vote that the Greens got) |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 9, 2022 21:16:42 GMT
Are the Greens doing an unpopular job running Brighton and Hove again? The 2019 result there was great for the Greens and, compared to the 2017 general election, a great disappointment for Labour. The Wish result (along with the May Rottingdean Coastal one) would suggest that Labour are on course to gain significantly from both the other major parties on the council.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 9, 2022 22:12:47 GMT
Are the Greens doing an unpopular job running Brighton and Hove again? The 2019 result there was great for the Greens and, compared to the 2017 general election, a great disappointment for Labour. The Wish result (along with the May Rottingdean Coastal one) would suggest that Labour are on course to gain significantly from both the other major parties on the council. You can't necessarily extrapolate what will happen in Green-Labour contests from a Conservative-Labour one. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 9, 2022 22:43:29 GMT
Are the Greens doing an unpopular job running Brighton and Hove again? The 2019 result there was great for the Greens and, compared to the 2017 general election, a great disappointment for Labour. The Wish result (along with the May Rottingdean Coastal one) would suggest that Labour are on course to gain significantly from both the other major parties on the council. You can't necessarily extrapolate what will happen in Green-Labour contests from a Conservative-Labour one. You say it’s a Conservative-Labour contest, but the Greens were only 7% behind Labour and 14% behind the Conservatives last time which is certainly doable in a by-election, and the Green vote wasn’t just squeezed, it evaporated this time. I obviously don’t think it’s going to do the same in wards the Greens properly contest, but if they want to remain the largest party or gain an overall majority then it’s wards like Wish that they may need to win. |
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Post by samtheodoridi on Dec 9, 2022 22:51:43 GMT
Although the Conservative share was only down 7.5% there, far from their worst result recently and considering the area perhaps not that bad. The Green share was down 16% , so most of the Labour increase and the thumping victory probably came from that source. The net result of course is the same and bad news from the Conservatives but their own vote share did not collapse completely by any means. I think I have to disagree with that to some extent. Wish Ward is constructed very similarly to another ward where Labour had a notable triumph in the fairly recent past - Marine Ward in Worthing. In both cases, the housing just north of the seafront is for the most part of very high quality, and there remain many retirees who are pretty well-to-do - it's very pleasant around Wish Park and close to the sea. In both cases, the housing becomes more mixed the other side of the main road, closer to the railway line (the same railway line, in fact). I don't really think that, however safe the Hove parliamentary seat now is for Labour, it can be regarded as a very good result for the Tories for Labour to be polling twice as many votes as them, even though it is true that their vote did not completely collapse. I thought the Greens would do better than that, it's really not a good result for them even if it was mostly seen as a Lab - Con contest. I have to largely agree with your comparison between Wish and Marine. Whilst doing GOTV yesterday I thought to myself that much of Wish is like the southern part of Marine but on steroids. The things I'd say are different are that the housing to the North of Wish is much grander than that to the North of Marine, as is the case with any comparison between the housing in Worthing and Hove, and Marine doesn't have the same level of wealth as Wish, particularly the houses on New Church Road, which are very nice and expensive, with suitability rich people living in them. To demonstrate my point, I had 2 houses in a row in New Church Road, one with a gardener outside, and one with a cleaner inside. You just don't get that sort of thing in most of Worthing. |
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