Local Council by-elections 8th December 2022

[Tony Otim]

Dec 9, 2022 11:55:03 GMT andrewp said:

Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences:

Conservative: 1787 (53.3%)
SNP: 879 (26.2%)
Labour: 326 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%)
Green: 172 (5.1%)

Con elected on first round

Con +3.1
SNP -4.1
Lab -1.6
LD new
Grn -3.0

As noted, an impressive gain for the Tories under the circumstances. The ongoing constitutional debate probably helped, as perhaps did low turnout. I wonder how hard anybody else tried given the large lead the Conservatives started with in the ward.

[wallington]

Dec 9, 2022 11:21:13 GMT olympian95 said:

Yes the Olympic Park ward is a massive outlier. There is some gentrification in the Forest Gate wards though so it will be interesting to see if the Greens put in any effort round there.

They had a pretty solid result in Beckton this year as well, I assume this ward would have a significant student population? 

[rockefeller]

Dec 9, 2022 11:55:03 GMT andrewp said:

Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences:

Conservative: 1787 (53.3%)
SNP: 879 (26.2%)
Labour: 326 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%)
Green: 172 (5.1%)

Con elected on first round

A strong result. Dumfries & Galloway was also one of the few Scots seats where the Tories gained vote share in 2019.  

[yellowperil]

Dec 9, 2022 13:10:58 GMT rockefeller said:

Dec 9, 2022 11:55:03 GMT andrewp said:

Mid Galloway and Wigtown West (Dumfries & Galloway) By-Election, first preferences:

Conservative: 1787 (53.3%)
SNP: 879 (26.2%)
Labour: 326 (9.7%)
Lib Dem: 190 (5.7%)
Green: 172 (5.1%)

Con elected on first round

A strong result. Dumfries & Galloway was also one of the few Scots seats where the Tories gained vote share in 2019.  

Technically, of course, that goes down as a Con gain from Labour(!)

[iang]

Dec 9, 2022 12:56:43 GMT wallington said:

Dec 9, 2022 11:21:13 GMT olympian95 said:

Yes the Olympic Park ward is a massive outlier. There is some gentrification in the Forest Gate wards though so it will be interesting to see if the Greens put in any effort round there.

They had a pretty solid result in Beckton this year as well, I assume this ward would have a significant student population? 

There have been a few occasions where Labour hegemony has been slightly challenged in Newham. Back in the 80s the Alliance had a few seats, which then all fell apart rather spectacularly when the Lib and SDP{ elements drastically fell out with each other. A  more recent lib Dem incursion ended when the only LD councillor, who was also the candidate in a parliamentary by-election at the same time defected to Labour in the middle of the by-election. Then the Christian Peoples Alliance got a foothold, as far as I am aware, the only elected councillors in a major authority they ever had. Respect won one ward the same year the CPA did, so that was a rare occasion when there were as many as six councillors in opposition. But none of these was ever more than a ward since the beginning of the 80s (if we count the SDP & Liberals as different from each other in 1982 - which would seem to be the case given the way things turned out). Urban authority, big wards, elections every four years so a long time to wait if you miss out - it's really difficult for any small party to challenge the hegemony in more than one or two places 

[yellowperil]

I do Wish B&H would get a move on....

[rockefeller]

Dec 9, 2022 14:58:16 GMT yellowperil said:

I do Wish B&H would get a move on....

Give it one last Hove...

[iang]

I'd actually completely forgotten we were still waiting for one result!

[ricmk]

Looks like they have 8 counters so that should be a decent number to get through this at pace:

EDIT: Same account states that they verified 45 minutes ago.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 9, 2022 12:33:53 GMT andrewp said:

Dec 9, 2022 12:25:42 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

If the LDs were going to make Colchester a 3-way marginal, they'd have to be winning Highwoods fairly comfortably. As it is, I suspect that at the next general election they will be concentrating all their resources in Essex on Chelmsford.

The last time there wasn’t an Independent on the ballot in Highwoods, which was in 2002, the result was LD 56%, Con 25%, Lab 19%

Though the last time there wasn't an independent on the ballot, quite a lot of the housing in the ward hadn't been built.

[timmullen1]

Turnout 34.24%, 2600 votes, Tweeted 48 minutes ago by Ms Booker-Lewis.

[andrea]

They are looking at spoilt papers now according to Booker-Lewis.

[Rutlander]

Presence of Labour's Peter Kyle presumably indicative of an imminent announcement of a LAB gain.

[timmullen1]

White smoke!

[The Bishop]

Not even close, and the Greens "effective campaigner" didn't appear to have much impact.

[andrea]

Ah, I thought the name of the Lab candidate somehow rang me a bell. She was one of the those cut by NEC panel for Hastings & Rye parliamentary longlisting some months ago.

[rockefeller]

58% for Labour. Their top candidate got 34% in 2019. Labour gain Brighton & Hove council in 2023?

[John Chanin]

Dec 9, 2022 15:38:51 GMT timmullen1 said:

White smoke!

Well that was a thumping victory, even bigger than expected and predicted.  The Conservatives continue to be chased out of well off urban areas, which are also well educated, and (therefore) socially liberal.  I wonder if they may be reduced to just 2 wards at the next Brighton & Hove elections.  Bournemouth must be next in line for a similar change.

[matureleft]

Dec 9, 2022 15:17:45 GMT timmullen1 said:

Turnout 34.24%, 2600 votes, Tweeted 48 minutes ago by Ms Booker-Lewis.

A good turnout for this time of year.

[timrollpickering]

Dec 9, 2022 14:47:21 GMT iang said:

There have been a few occasions where Labour hegemony has been slightly challenged in Newham. Back in the 80s the Alliance had a few seats, which then all fell apart rather spectacularly when the Lib and SDP{ elements drastically fell out with each other. A  more recent lib Dem incursion ended when the only LD councillor, who was also the candidate in a parliamentary by-election at the same time defected to Labour in the middle of the by-election.

Alec Kellaway was originally elected for the SDP in early 1987. A Liberal/SaLaD/Lib Dem activist of the era once commented that in the merger mess Kellaway initially opted for the Continuing SDP and this was a not insignificant factor in persuading a number of Liberal activists to join the merged party. (The said activist was very much on the Alliance-sceptic wing of the Liberals though ultimately accepted the merged party as the way forward.) By the 1990 council elections Kellway was in the Lib Dems and re-elected as such. By all accounts he ideologically saw himself as a social democrat in a period when it wasn't clear what the best viable political vehicle for that position was.

Then the Christian Peoples Alliance got a foothold, as far as I am aware, the only elected councillors in a major authority they ever had. Respect won one ward the same year the CPA did, so that was a rare occasion when there were as many as six councillors in opposition.

The CPA won a single seat in 2002 then managed to win the whole ward in 2006, the same year as Respect.