batman
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2022 10:26:05 GMT
no Red Wall seat is held by Labour, ironically, except for Wakefield (I don't count Bury South as it's a long-term marginal, not a traditionally safe Labour seat) Wasn't Hartlepool called 'Red Wall' ad nauseam in the run-up to the by-election though, likewise I'm sure some also applied it to Batley and Spen which also fits into your latter category given like BS it was Tory right up to '97. I may be being a bit facetious but I would not be surprised if at least one (probably London-based) 'commentator' will therefore refer to S&U (and indeed Chester/W.Lancs!) as Red Wall, because they think that any Labour seat north of Watford voted Leave and is 'Red Wall' safe labour, etc... the Red Wall is usually said to include Hartlepool, as it's a traditionally fairly or very safe Labour seat (yes I know it went Tory in 1959) which has gone Tory in either the last general election, or in this case subsequently. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2022 10:27:32 GMT
Definitely Conservative, since the pretty similar then incarnation of Stretford in 1979 was won clearly by the Tories. Majority probably in the region of 7000 or maybe more
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 26, 2022 10:53:04 GMT
[Wasn't Hartlepool called 'Red Wall' ad nauseam in the run-up to the by-election though, likewise I'm sure some also applied it to Batley and Spen which also fits into your latter category given like BS it was Tory right up to '97. I may be being a bit facetious but I would not be surprised if at least one (probably London-based) 'commentator' will therefore refer to S&U (and indeed Chester/W.Lancs!) as Red Wall, because they think that any Labour seat north of Watford voted Leave and is 'Red Wall' safe labour, etc... Ahem... Of coure, and as I've said before, Kanagasooriam's "red wall" is quite different from the journalists' cliché "red wall" <waves from Sheffield Hallam> but it shows how flexible the term can be. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 1, 2022 21:44:11 GMT
S&U shouldn't be regarded as "red wall" in the slightest. It's not that long ago that the four Urmston wards were all held, entirely, by Tory councillors. Stretford much longer, obviously, but was home to active Tory activists well into the late 2000s. Much of Labour's recent success has been thanks to demographic change.
It fits into a pattern with local seats like Stockport and Manchester Withington. They once had a Conservative-leaning demographic. Now they don't. S&U was a hotbed of the Tory Worker tendency. Stockport had the tendence Hyacinth Bouquet in the Heatons. Those people don't live there now. No credible commentator would call those "Red wall" seats.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 1, 2022 22:26:00 GMT
S&U shouldn't be regarded as "red wall" in the slightest. It's not that long ago that the four Urmston wards were all held, entirely, by Tory councillors. Stretford much longer, obviously, but was home to active Tory activists well into the late 2000s. Much of Labour's recent success has been thanks to demographic change. It fits into a pattern with local seats like Stockport and Manchester Withington. They once had a Conservative-leaning demographic. Now they don't. S&U was a hotbed of the Tory Worker tendency. Stockport had the tendence Hyacinth Bouquet in the Heatons. Those people don't live there now. No credible commentator would call those "Red wall" seats. There are still a few "tendence Hyacinth Bouquets" in Heaton Moor, they fierce cheer me up. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Dec 4, 2022 16:23:06 GMT
S&U shouldn't be regarded as "red wall" in the slightest. It's not that long ago that the four Urmston wards were all held, entirely, by Tory councillors. Stretford much longer, obviously, but was home to active Tory activists well into the late 2000s. Much of Labour's recent success has been thanks to demographic change. It fits into a pattern with local seats like Stockport and Manchester Withington. They once had a Conservative-leaning demographic. Now they don't. S&U was a hotbed of the Tory Worker tendency. Stockport had the tendence Hyacinth Bouquet in the Heatons. Those people don't live there now. No credible commentator would call those "Red wall" seats. It’s the whole swath of Wards on both sides of the Stockport/Manchester border that have shifted. As well as Withington, Longsight, Levenshulme, Burnage, and even Didsbury on the Manchester side have moved from safe Tory to safe Labour (or Labour/Lib Dem marginal). Much the same in the Heatons and Davenport. I assume that the demographic change in Trafford followed the same pattern. Talking of the Hyacinth Bouquet vote, my Division of Morningside had similar issues. The vote was dominated by the ‘Morningside Ladies’. Every front room had a piano, they never missed a concert at the Usher Hall and they voted solidly Conservative and kept Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Ancram in the Commons. They haven’t moved out or changed their votes, they just died out and have been largely replaced by younger professionals who split their votes evenly between Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green in local elections but vote solidly Labour in Parliamentary elections. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 4, 2022 17:23:58 GMT
john07, nailed it. But certainly over in Urmston, there's a large cohort that have upped and left (these being people I know personally or am related to!). It's funny when places change beyond recognition when they were once the places you thought you knew better than anywhere on earth.
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Post by aargauer on Dec 4, 2022 17:25:34 GMT
I wonder how long it is before the pendulum swings back to more economic influenced voting. The identity thing is just tiring.
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 4, 2022 17:32:51 GMT
I wonder how long it is before the pendulum swings back to more economic influenced voting. The identity thing is just tiring. What identity issues do you think this is about? Urmston is about the whitest bit of Trafford at about 93%. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 4, 2022 18:01:58 GMT
S&U shouldn't be regarded as "red wall" in the slightest. It's not that long ago that the four Urmston wards were all held, entirely, by Tory councillors. Stretford much longer, obviously, but was home to active Tory activists well into the late 2000s. Much of Labour's recent success has been thanks to demographic change. It fits into a pattern with local seats like Stockport and Manchester Withington. They once had a Conservative-leaning demographic. Now they don't. S&U was a hotbed of the Tory Worker tendency. Stockport had the tendence Hyacinth Bouquet in the Heatons. Those people don't live there now. No credible commentator would call those "Red wall" seats. It’s the whole swath of Wards on both sides of the Stockport/Manchester border that have shifted. As well as Withington, Longsight, Levenshulme, Burnage, and even Didsbury on the Manchester side have moved from safe Tory to safe Labour (or Labour/Lib Dem marginal). Much the same in the Heatons and Davenport. I assume that the demographic change in Trafford followed the same pattern. Talking of the Hyacinth Bouquet vote, my Division of Morningside had similar issues. The vote was dominated by the ‘Morningside Ladies’. Every front room had a piano, they never missed a concert at the Usher Hall and they voted solidly Conservative and kept Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Ancram in the Commons. They haven’t moved out or changed their votes, they just died out and have been largely replaced by younger professionals who split their votes evenly between Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green in local elections but vote solidly Labour in Parliamentary elections. Agree, except for Levenshulme, which was safe Liberal then Liberal Democrat, from 1979 onwards - the last time a Conservative won there was in 1978, Cllr. John Barber, who lost his seat in 1982. The only time you might have referred to the ward as safe-ish would have been 1976. After that, the Conservatives ebbed away in Levenshulme. The Lib Dems haven't won a seat there since 2010 and the beginning of the coalition - they came fourth this year with 5.5%, just ahead of the Tories on 4.4%. I remember John Barber coming to canvass my Gran's house and her loudly declaring: "I don't vote, but if I did, it wouldn't be for you. Now get off my step with your muddy shoes". |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 4, 2022 20:26:44 GMT
I wonder how long it is before the pendulum swings back to more economic influenced voting. The identity thing is just tiring. What identity issues do you think this is about? Urmston is about the whitest bit of Trafford at about 93%. And even in 2010 which was I'd assume the last largely economically-influenced election (aka where the Tories were effectively blaming Labour for the economic downturn) the swing was tiny compared to other areas, and that was with no incumbency for Green (and she didn't appear to have any prior connections to the area) a fact even even more surprising given the then-not-insignificant bedrock of Conservative support in the Urmston side. It should be said though there was a sizeable swing against Hughes in 2005. There are of course changes afoot in Altrincham & SW too where Brady's majorities aren't what they were. Time will tell if he stands down, becomes Lord Brady, or takes the punt and gets his sizeable payout on losing. Back to S&U and the BE - I think there will be a high proportion of 'squeezed middle' types here who will really want to punish the Tories if they hadn't done so already. The houses aren't as grand as Bowden or Hale but they are still much more expensive than equivalent ones elsewhere in GM - due to a lot of people moving in attracted by the free grammar schools and doing their best for their children. Those are the types that will be tightening their belts in the current climate. And when their children go off to university I imagine this will also be of the demographic that will only qualify for a much smaller maintenance loan but equally can't afford to send significant amounts of support towards university living costs either. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 4, 2022 21:30:43 GMT
It's definitely noticeable that anti-grammar sentiment hasn't resurfaced compared to 20 years ago or so. Probably because that's exactly why everyone has moved in, even if they wouldn't vote Tory in a month of Sundays.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Dec 4, 2022 21:37:53 GMT
It’s the whole swath of Wards on both sides of the Stockport/Manchester border that have shifted. As well as Withington, Longsight, Levenshulme, Burnage, and even Didsbury on the Manchester side have moved from safe Tory to safe Labour (or Labour/Lib Dem marginal). Much the same in the Heatons and Davenport. I assume that the demographic change in Trafford followed the same pattern. Talking of the Hyacinth Bouquet vote, my Division of Morningside had similar issues. The vote was dominated by the ‘Morningside Ladies’. Every front room had a piano, they never missed a concert at the Usher Hall and they voted solidly Conservative and kept Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Ancram in the Commons. They haven’t moved out or changed their votes, they just died out and have been largely replaced by younger professionals who split their votes evenly between Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green in local elections but vote solidly Labour in Parliamentary elections. Agree, except for Levenshulme, which was safe Liberal then Liberal Democrat, from 1979 onwards - the last time a Conservative won there was in 1978, Cllr. John Barber, who lost his seat in 1982. The only time you might have referred to the ward as safe-ish would have been 1976. After that, the Conservatives ebbed away in Levenshulme. The Lib Dems haven't won a seat there since 2010 and the beginning of the coalition - they came fourth this year with 5.5%, just ahead of the Tories on 4.4%. I remember John Barber coming to canvass my Gran's house and her loudly declaring: "I don't vote, but if I did, it wouldn't be for you. Now get off my step with your muddy shoes". I was referring to Levenshulme, when I lived in the Manchester area (prior to 1978), which had consistently elected Conservative councillors. We had a discussion on here about it being, at one stage, the only Ward in Manchester never to have returned a Labour councillor. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 4, 2022 23:07:22 GMT
Agree, except for Levenshulme, which was safe Liberal then Liberal Democrat, from 1979 onwards - the last time a Conservative won there was in 1978, Cllr. John Barber, who lost his seat in 1982. The only time you might have referred to the ward as safe-ish would have been 1976. After that, the Conservatives ebbed away in Levenshulme. The Lib Dems haven't won a seat there since 2010 and the beginning of the coalition - they came fourth this year with 5.5%, just ahead of the Tories on 4.4%. I remember John Barber coming to canvass my Gran's house and her loudly declaring: "I don't vote, but if I did, it wouldn't be for you. Now get off my step with your muddy shoes". I was referring to Levenshulme, when I lived in the Manchester area (prior to 1978), which had consistently elected Conservative councillors. We had a discussion on here about it being, at one stage, the only Ward in Manchester never to have returned a Labour councillor. It took other areas straddling the Manchester/Stockport/Trafford area several more decades to swing, which is why I think Levenshulme is different. Mind you, you left the area just as I was becoming active. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 5, 2022 5:22:10 GMT
It's definitely noticeable that anti-grammar sentiment hasn't resurfaced compared to 20 years ago or so. Probably because that's exactly why everyone has moved in, even if they wouldn't vote Tory in a month of Sundays. Nobody in the UK would vote Tory in a month of sundays, except possibly by mail. |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 5, 2022 12:08:56 GMT
It's funny when places change beyond recognition when they were once the places you thought you knew better than anywhere on earth. Facebook comments under Altrincham Today are a hilarious place to find people who haven't yet realised this. "The town centre's dead, just boarded up shops, no point going there any more." Click through to their profile and they're in somewhere like Perth, Australia. |
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Dec 5, 2022 17:29:52 GMT
What identity issues do you think this is about? Urmston is about the whitest bit of Trafford at about 93%. And even in 2010 which was I'd assume the last largely economically-influenced election (aka where the Tories were effectively blaming Labour for the economic downturn) the swing was tiny compared to other areas, and that was with no incumbency for Green (and she didn't appear to have any prior connections to the area) a fact even even more surprising given the then-not-insignificant bedrock of Conservative support in the Urmston side. It should be said though there was a sizeable swing against Hughes in 2005. There are of course changes afoot in Altrincham & SW too where Brady's majorities aren't what they were. Time will tell if he stands down, becomes Lord Brady, or takes the punt and gets his sizeable payout on losing. Back to S&U and the BE - I think there will be a high proportion of 'squeezed middle' types here who will really want to punish the Tories if they hadn't done so already. The houses aren't as grand as Bowden or Hale but they are still much more expensive than equivalent ones elsewhere in GM - due to a lot of people moving in attracted by the free grammar schools and doing their best for their children. Those are the types that will be tightening their belts in the current climate. And when their children go off to university I imagine this will also be of the demographic that will only qualify for a much smaller maintenance loan but equally can't afford to send significant amounts of support towards university living costs either. I think that aargauer is referring to class-based voting and middle-class urban/inner-suburban voters abandoning the Conservatives (though I think this can largely be explained in economic terms), rather than ethnicity or the state of the economy, if I'm not mistaken. At least that's the impression I got from his post. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 5, 2022 17:31:37 GMT
It's funny when places change beyond recognition when they were once the places you thought you knew better than anywhere on earth. Facebook comments under Altrincham Today are a hilarious place to find people who haven't yet realised this. "The town centre's dead, just boarded up shops, no point going there any more." Click through to their profile and they're in somewhere like Perth, Australia. People have been saying that about Alty for about thirty years! They all used to complain about the McDonald's, then moaned when it closed. |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 5, 2022 18:21:20 GMT
Facebook comments under Altrincham Today are a hilarious place to find people who haven't yet realised this. "The town centre's dead, just boarded up shops, no point going there any more." Click through to their profile and they're in somewhere like Perth, Australia. People have been saying that about Alty for about thirty years! They all used to complain about the McDonald's, then moaned when it closed. That's now a Nandos, so that particular demographic are happy. "Back when the market had a greengrocer, and a butcher, and a fishmonger, and a cheese stall" is one that gets levelled at Alty Market, too, by those that cannot have actually visited and seen the thriving greengrocer, butcher, fishmonger and cheese stall. |
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Dec 5, 2022 18:47:29 GMT
I live in the constituency and plan to vote.
Have received 3 leaflets from labour one from tories and reform respectively.
No canvasses at my door but I do live in a block of flats
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