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Post by owainsutton on Nov 22, 2022 18:17:22 GMT
Au contraire.
CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative
FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem
GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent
GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance
JERROME Dan - Green Party
NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU
SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK
WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour
YVON Julien Alexander - SDP
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2022 18:19:07 GMT
Well that's the commentator's curse!
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 22, 2022 18:19:32 GMT
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 22, 2022 18:34:27 GMT
Hazel Gibb stood in Gorse Hill ward in May, as an indepedent.
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 22, 2022 18:38:15 GMT
Of those not previously mentioned: Stood for the Gorse Hill ward in Trafford in the May council elections. Seems to be a first candidacy. Ditto. |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 22, 2022 18:40:29 GMT
The Reform candidate stood for UKIP in Flixton ward in 2021, getting 75 votes.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 22, 2022 21:07:56 GMT
Au contraire. CARTER-KANDOLA Emily Samantha - Conservative FRYER Anna Corrina - Lib Dem GIBB Hazel Joy - Independent GLANCY Christina - Freedom Alliance JERROME Dan - Green Party NEWELL Jim - Rejoin EU SWANSBOROUGH Paul James - Reform UK WESTERN Andrew Howard - Labour YVON Julien Alexander - SDP I shall strongly support Reform UK and hope they do more damage to the Conservative vote than they have thus far. I think there will be a lot like me this time. |
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catfest
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Post by catfest on Nov 24, 2022 18:48:29 GMT
Link to SoPN for Stretford and Urmston By-E. :- SoPN |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 25, 2022 19:35:28 GMT
Given the quiet, uncontroversial and underwhelmingly ‘technical’ circumstances of this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout, for a traditionally high turnout area, will be extremely low, a third at best. All focus of course will be on the Conservative decline and I’m sure is just ‘work experience’ for the candidate who will get a safe seat next time if she isn’t completely humiliated (Alt&SW next time if Brady retires? Though even this is not safe!).
I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 25, 2022 19:47:13 GMT
Given the quiet, uncontroversial and underwhelmingly ‘technical’ circumstances of this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout, for a traditionally high turnout area, will be extremely low, a third at best. All focus of course will be on the Conservative decline and I’m sure is just ‘work experience’ for the candidate who will get a safe seat next time if she isn’t completely humiliated (Alt&SW next time if Brady retires? Though even this is not safe!). I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not. I agree with the factors impacting turnout, adding to which the midwinter date. However, if you use LE turnouts as a baseline to forecast from, only one ward of the nine (Bucklow St Martin) was below 30% this May, and five were over 40%. Not very typical for a 'safe-Labour' met-district local election. The local Labour GOTV operation is a reason behind this, and they'll probably view it as an opportunity for training activists ahead of the council all-outs, also thinking ahead to Altrincham & Sale West. (They had some really dodgy 'training' from Momentum in 2019, basically telling people to nod along and agree with any racist or anti-immigration sentiments.) |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 25, 2022 20:11:40 GMT
Given the quiet, uncontroversial and underwhelmingly ‘technical’ circumstances of this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout, for a traditionally high turnout area, will be extremely low, a third at best. All focus of course will be on the Conservative decline and I’m sure is just ‘work experience’ for the candidate who will get a safe seat next time if she isn’t completely humiliated (Alt&SW next time if Brady retires? Though even this is not safe!). I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not. I agree with the factors impacting turnout, adding to which the midwinter date. However, if you use LE turnouts as a baseline to forecast from, only one ward of the nine (Bucklow St Martin) was below 30% this May, and five were over 40%. Not very typical for a 'safe-Labour' met-district local election. The local Labour GOTV operation is a reason behind this, and they'll probably view it as an opportunity for training activists ahead of the council all-outs, also thinking ahead to Altrincham & Sale West. ( They had some really dodgy 'training' from Momentum in 2019, basically telling people to nod along and agree with any racist or anti-immigration sentiments.) It didn’t seem to do them any harm. For a suburban seat it’s a very creditable result for Green and/or a a massive underperformance by the Tory candidate whose percentage stayed still, no increase in vote at all. I know this is a Remain area so that would primarily be why, but even so, larger Labour decreases/some Tory increases were seen in other nearby areas, including remain ones. I also don’t think this is the sort of area where the race of the Conservative candidate would have been an issue either (unlike a couple of others I can think of in Greater Manchester in 2019) |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 25, 2022 20:26:01 GMT
Agree about the general area. It's become part of that "south-central Manchester red-belt", along with Manchester Withington and Manchester Gorton, that's gone into sky-high majorities in generals. Despite the Davyhulmes voting Tory recently, and perhaps because of the whole saga of the Lib Dems across Manchester collapsing so very hard after 2015.
Changes in demographics is a *part* of this, but Labour will over-exaggerate that factor at any opportunity. "This is now natural Labour", etc.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 25, 2022 20:27:29 GMT
Also, it's not simply a "suburban" seat. Old Trafford (Clifford, in ward names, bordering Hulme in MCC), Longford, Gorse Hill very strongly have an urban identity, as is the entire Streford environs.
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 21:19:31 GMT
I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not. The Stretford seat which the younger Churchill held before 1983, and which in fact was Tory in most elections, must have been quite similar to this one: it consisted of Stretford MD and Urmston UD. I think the main different is Bucklow-St Martins ward, which must help Labour a little, but I imagine the only one of Churchill's wins which it might have changed would be October 1974. I think this has been mentioned before, but IIRC the media sometimes referred to Churchill's later seat as "Manchester Davyhulme" even though it didn't contain any of the City of Manchester and was officially just Davyhulme. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 25, 2022 21:38:11 GMT
Whereas the 1983-97 seat of Stretford did contain two wards of the actual city of Manchester.
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2022 23:19:23 GMT
Given the quiet, uncontroversial and underwhelmingly ‘technical’ circumstances of this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout, for a traditionally high turnout area, will be extremely low, a third at best. All focus of course will be on the Conservative decline and I’m sure is just ‘work experience’ for the candidate who will get a safe seat next time if she isn’t completely humiliated (Alt&SW next time if Brady retires? Though even this is not safe!). I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not. no Red Wall seat is held by Labour, ironically, except for Wakefield (I don't count Bury South as it's a long-term marginal, not a traditionally safe Labour seat) |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Nov 26, 2022 0:49:42 GMT
Given the quiet, uncontroversial and underwhelmingly ‘technical’ circumstances of this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout, for a traditionally high turnout area, will be extremely low, a third at best. All focus of course will be on the Conservative decline and I’m sure is just ‘work experience’ for the candidate who will get a safe seat next time if she isn’t completely humiliated (Alt&SW next time if Brady retires? Though even this is not safe!). I wonder how many observers may point out that much of the area at one point was held by ‘a’ Winston Churchill though the ‘97 boundary changes mask this as it made it a Labour hold. So Red Wall this is not. no Red Wall seat is held by Labour, ironically, except for Wakefield (I don't count Bury South as it's a long-term marginal, not a traditionally safe Labour seat) Wasn't Hartlepool called 'Red Wall' ad nauseam in the run-up to the by-election though, likewise I'm sure some also applied it to Batley and Spen which also fits into your latter category given like BS it was Tory right up to '97. I may be being a bit facetious but I would not be surprised if at least one (probably London-based) 'commentator' will therefore refer to S&U (and indeed Chester/W.Lancs!) as Red Wall, because they think that any Labour seat north of Watford voted Leave and is 'Red Wall' safe labour, etc... |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 26, 2022 3:07:37 GMT
It is a seat that's clearly trending towards Labour. Larger majorities in both 2017 and 2019 than 1997 and an increased majority in 2010.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2022 5:10:44 GMT
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Post by rockefeller on Nov 26, 2022 9:09:53 GMT
How would this seat have voted in 1983?
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