Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 2, 2022 12:54:24 GMT
West Lothian will be very encouraging for Labour. There's a decent swing there from SNP since May. Also pretty dreadful for the Conservatives. Something like that in an all out election would see Labour take the Conservstive seat fairly comfortably and a 2-2 split with the SNP.
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Post by Rutlander on Dec 2, 2022 13:01:53 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 2, 2022 13:12:04 GMT
Using weird abbreviations like that (“L P” and “G P” instead of “Lab” and “Grn”) is a bit Maoist in my opinion. the abbreviation LP for Labour Party is quite common even amongst the party's supporters, though I never use it myself. I am one who usually abbreviates the Greens to GP, a habit I think I picked up from others on here using it, notably David Boothroyd I believe. I don't consider myself in any way a Maoist. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Dec 2, 2022 13:23:09 GMT
It strikes me that the Lib Dems have had some serious good fortune - I won't call it luck - this week, with 2 narrow gains against helpfully split opposition, and a gain in truest blue territory aided by the Tories sabotaging their own campaign.
There have been some narrow and awkward reverses in the other direction in recent weeks; feels like this evens things out over the past couple of months or so.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 2, 2022 13:28:11 GMT
Using weird abbreviations like that (“L P” and “G P” instead of “Lab” and “Grn”) is a bit Maoist in my opinion. the abbreviation LP for Labour Party is quite common even amongst the party's supporters, though I never use it myself. not in common speech though I'd have thought |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 2, 2022 13:36:59 GMT
Oh thank you for that. I was sort-of remembering that one and was racking my brains and looking for it without finding it. Now you remind me, it is near as these things ever are making this one an exact repeat of last year, in the next door division. I was beginning to thinlk it was deja vu brought on by lack of sleep. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 2, 2022 13:37:57 GMT
Lib Dem gain Gaywood North & Central. The Liberals won a county by-election in Gaywood South from a standing start a couple of years ago, so this isn’t actually a surprise. But forewarned Labour will be disappointed to be narrowly outvoted. Gaywood is pretty run down like the rest of Kings Lynn, albeit this is owner occupied rather than rented. Liberal Democrats have always been good at hoovering up the NOTA vote, but they have done well to win this given the political climate, and an active Labour campaign. |
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Post by batman on Dec 2, 2022 13:46:52 GMT
the abbreviation LP for Labour Party is quite common even amongst the party's supporters, though I never use it myself. not in common speech though I'd have thought no, but certainly in typed or written words. Not generally spoken as you say |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 2, 2022 13:48:24 GMT
Lib Dem gain Gaywood North & Central. The Liberals won a county by-election in Gaywood South from a standing start a couple of years ago, so this isn’t actually a surprise. But forewarned Labour will be disappointed to be narrowly outvoted. Gaywood is pretty run down like the rest of Kings Lynn, albeit this is owner occupied rather than rented. Liberal Democrats have always been good at hoovering up the NOTA vote, but they have done well to win this given the political climate, and an active Labour campaign. Well, the turnout in Gaywood was just 13.7%, so the evidence is thin that any party ran a seriously active campaign. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 2, 2022 13:48:49 GMT
West Lothian vote shares, with changes from May:
Lab 39.8 (+10.2)
SNP 35.2 (-6.7)
Con 7.7 (-10.0)
Horne 6.1 (new)
LD 3.7 (nc)
Laidlaw 2.8 (new)
Grn 2.7 (-1.7)
Alba 1.8 (+0.4)
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 2, 2022 13:59:42 GMT
Labour HOLD in West Lothian Nitpicking again, but the maximum number of stages when there are 8 candidates is 7, so must have been elected before stage 8. Actually elected by 2191 to 1792 at stage 7 (but stage 2 if all but the top 2 excluded together). |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
Member is Online
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Post by Clark on Dec 2, 2022 14:06:13 GMT
After Linn Ward in Glasgow South last week, that makes 2 x Labour gains over the SNP in their old Central Belt heartland areas but they were perhaps lended to some votes from Tory voters yesterday in West Lothian
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Post by Rutlander on Dec 2, 2022 14:09:04 GMT
NORFOLK:
Looking further on Wikipedia at the two Gaywood divisions, I see that in 2009, the BNP could get double figure percentages in both (13.5 in GN&C, 10 in GS) and in that year CONs gained both seats from Lab. Not much history for the LDs in either div.
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Post by kvasir on Dec 2, 2022 14:12:01 GMT
West Lothian vote shares, with changes from May: Lab 39.8 (+10.2) SNP 35.2 (-6.7) Con 7.7 (-10.0) Horne 6.1 (new) LD 3.7 (nc) Laidlaw 2.8 (new) Grn 2.7 (-1.7) Alba 1.8 (+0.4) Will we get the full results? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 2, 2022 14:13:30 GMT
After Linn Ward in Glasgow South last week, that makes 2 x Labour gains over the SNP in their old Central Belt heartland areas but they were perhaps lended to some votes from Tory voters yesterday in West Lothian Both were Labour holds, not gains, although both had a similar c.8.5%-9% swing from SNP to Labour, which will be very encouraging for them. As to be lent votes - only time will tell if that is a lending or a winning back on a more long-term basis. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 2, 2022 14:16:15 GMT
The Liberals won a county by-election in Gaywood South from a standing start a couple of years ago, so this isn’t actually a surprise. But forewarned Labour will be disappointed to be narrowly outvoted. Gaywood is pretty run down like the rest of Kings Lynn, albeit this is owner occupied rather than rented. Liberal Democrats have always been good at hoovering up the NOTA vote, but they have done well to win this given the political climate, and an active Labour campaign. Well, the turnout in Gaywood was just 13.7%, so the evidence is thin that any party ran a seriously active campaign. If the LibDems (or any party) can win a seat from 3rd place with 7% of the vote, tripling their numerical vote in the process, without doing any work, then the other parties should be very worried! |
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Post by batman on Dec 2, 2022 15:07:26 GMT
After Linn Ward in Glasgow South last week, that makes 2 x Labour gains over the SNP in their old Central Belt heartland areas but they were perhaps lended to some votes from Tory voters yesterday in West Lothian Both were Labour holds, not gains, although both had a similar c.8.5%-9% swing from SNP to Labour, which will be very encouraging for them. As to be lent votes - only time will tell if that is a lending or a winning back on a more long-term basis. it may rather be the case that Labour lent the Tories some unionist votes & that they have now returned to their previous home rather than the other way round. |
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 2, 2022 15:44:29 GMT
Nitpicking again, but the maximum number of stages when there are 8 candidates is 7, so must have been elected before stage 8. Actually elected by 2191 to 1792 at stage 7 (but stage 2 if all but the top 2 excluded together). Is there a link to the various stages? |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2022 15:52:28 GMT
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Dec 2, 2022 16:17:19 GMT
If the sort of results we have seen in West Lothian this week and Glasgow last week are repeated across the Central Belt, then the next election is going to be very interesting in Scotland – not for well over 50 years have we had two parties with relatively equal support in urban Scotland at a general election. Up until the 2010 election Labour were completely dominant, and since then the SNP have been similarly successful. There were however a couple of Holyrood elections with a "split decision" so to speak (with 2007 mainly Labour with some SNP patches, and vice versa in 2011).
In terms of vote share expect we might see a similar situation arise to the 2011 Holyrood election, where Labour suffered despite their vote share remaining relatively stable due to a large proportion of Lib Dem voters moving to the SNP – if Tory votes move en mass to Labour, then the SNP could potentially be losing a dozen or more seats with a vote share loss of only 3 or 4%.
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