Local Council by-elections 30th November/1st December 2022

[batman]

Dec 1, 2022 13:03:50 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-city-of-chester-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-1st-december-2022-374e0592466e

having been reminded by Andrew of the Romans' name for Chester, one could argue that one of the many MPs to be named after a constituency was Nirj Deva, Tory MP for Brentford & Isleworth from 1992 to 1997.

[CatholicLeft]

Dec 1, 2022 22:44:29 GMT batman said:

Dec 1, 2022 13:03:50 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-city-of-chester-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-1st-december-2022-374e0592466e

having been reminded by Andrew of the Romans' name for Chester, one could argue that one of the many MPs to be named after a constituency was Nirj Deva, Tory MP for Brentford & Isleworth from 1992 to 1997.

Lordy, I was only thinking about him today.

[Terry Weldon]

Encouraging day on the ground in Chiddingfold, knocking up and then telling.

First off, the village is bursting with LibDem stakeboards and window posters, especially in the immediate vicinity of the candidate's home, which is virtually solid with public displays of support. Form the other parties - nothing at all. Two anecdotes: I was told by one voter who says she never discloses her vote to anyone, "not even my husband" - but was very impressed by our impact (then added "good luck"). Someone else told one of our teller that he had voted for us, only because no one else had made any effort.

In two shifts before and after lunch, the vast majority of our supposed supporters were adamant that they either had aready voted, or were definitely planning to do so, later. Colleagues who were also out knocking up say that had a similar experience. So we believe that our turnout will be high - certainly higher than the usual 30/35% expected in a local by-election.

Then telling from 5 - 7 at the Chiddingfold station (with 2/3 of registered voters), I saw something like 100 through the doors. Extrapolating to a daily estimate, increase by 50% to include the Dunsfold PD, add some more for PVs, and we could end up with a respectable turnout, in spite of the Tory candidate being suspended at the last minute.

So I'll be watching with interest the turnout figure.

For the actual result, I'd be confident that we won the election day turnout. Howver, Tories traditionally hammer us on PVs - which will have been returned before the scandal broke. Our side worked harder than usual on PVs this time, so the damage may be less severe, but I would still expect a differential

All will be known, soon enough.

[andrewp]

Dec 1, 2022 23:08:34 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Encouraging day on the ground in Chiddingfold, knocking up and then telling.

First off, the village is bursting with LibDem stakeboards and window posters, especially in the immediate vicinity of the candidate's home, which is virtually solid with public displays of support. Form the other parties - nothing at all. Two anecdotes: I was told by one voter who says she never discloses her vote to anyone, "not even my husband" - but was very impressed by our impact (then added "good luck"). Someone else told one of our teller that he had voted for us, only because no one else had made any effort.

In two shifts before and after lunch, the vast majority of our supposed supporters were adamant that they either had aready voted, or were definitely planning to do so, later. Colleagues who were also out knocking up say that had a similar experience. So we believe that our turnout will be high - certainly higher than the usual 30/35% expected in a local by-election.

Then telling from 5 - 7 at the Chiddingfold station (with 2/3 of registered voters), I saw something like 100 through the doors. Extrapolating to a daily estimate, increase by 50% to include the Dunsfold PD, add some more for PVs, and we could end up with a respectable turnout, in spite of the Tory candidate being suspended at the last minute.

So I'll be watching with interest the turnout figure.

For the actual result, I'd be confident that we won the election day turnout. Howver, Tories traditionally hammer us on PVs - which will have been returned before the scandal broke. Our side worked harder than usual on PVs this time, so the damage may be less severe, but I would still expect a differential

All will be known, soon enough.

I’d be amazed if you don’t win.

[Terry Weldon]

Dec 1, 2022 13:03:50 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-city-of-chester-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-1st-december-2022-374e0592466e

Andrew's previews re Chiddingfold describes Surrey as a recent disaster area for Tories -especialy in Waverley, where he notes the devastation they suffered in 2019. In that election, LibDems went from holding a single seat (won only in a 2018 by-election) to leading a NOC coalition. Since then, it's changed even more. They've already lost three more seats since 2019: one to a defecting councillor (Liz Townsend) who has since joined the LibDems; one to an independent former Tory in the Frensham by-election early this year; and then to the LibDems in the Hindhead by-election. If they lose today, that will be their fourth seat gone inside four years.

[batman]

Dec 1, 2022 23:15:52 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Dec 1, 2022 13:03:50 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-city-of-chester-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-1st-december-2022-374e0592466e

Andrew's previews re Chiddingfold describes Surrey as a recent disaster area for Tories -especialy in Waverley, where he notes the devastation they suffered in 2019. In that election, LibDems went from holding a single seat (won only in a 2018 by-election) to leading a NOC coalition. Since then, it's changed even more. They've already lost three more seats since 2019: one to a defecting councillor (Liz Townsend) who has since joined the LibDems; one to an independent former Tory in the Frensham by-election early this year; and then to the LibDems in the Hindhead by-election. If they lose today, that will be their fourth seat gone inside four years.

it's not just that they're losing seats, they're losing the kind of seats they never used to lose. Time was that Hindhead was solidly Tory unlike the other towns in SW Surrey, especially Farnham and a place like Chiddingfold should really not be anything but Tory. But nevertheless I too will be amazed if the nominated Tory candidate wins there

[andrewp]

Southampton, Bitterne is a Lab gain

[Terry Weldon]

Chiddingfold result (by email from one of our key organisers)

CON 30.3%
LD 66.6%
LAB 3.1%

[Tony Otim]

Dec 1, 2022 23:41:00 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Chiddingfold result (by email from one of our key organisers)

CON 30.3%
LD 66.6%
LAB 3.1%

That's an impressive margin.

[timmullen1]

Dec 1, 2022 23:41:00 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Chiddingfold result (by email from one of our key organisers)

CON 30.3%
LD 66.6%
LAB 3.1%

Dave BUSBY (LD) 652
Ian David MITCHELL (Con) 297
Rebecca Faith AITKEN (Lab) 30

[batman]

yes although I thought the LDs would win I put in my prediction before the Tories disowned their candidate. This was clearly a conspiracy to rob me of my rightful place at the top of the Prediction Competition. And a lesson to me not to make predictions too early.

[Terry Weldon]

Impressive indeed. In 2019 we ran only a paper campaign with no activity at all.

But this consistent with what I've been seeing on the ground. We had an excellent, well-known and well0liked local candidate, who ran a strong, textbook campaign, with strong support from neighbouring areas - helped in the end by a disastrous Tory selection.

[andrewp]

Just noticing from Twitter that the LDs have possibly been running a very active campaign in Gaywood…..

[andrewp]

Dec 1, 2022 23:49:49 GMT Terry Weldon said:

Impressive indeed. In 2019 we ran only a paper campaign with no activity at all.

But this consistent with what I've been seeing on the ground. We had an excellent, well-known and well0liked local candidate, who ran a strong, textbook campaign, with strong support from neighbouring areas - helped in the end by a disastrous Tory selection.

I guess the question is whether you can hold those sorts of gains in May, probably with less strong support from neighbouring areas. 

[Terry Weldon]

Rough estimate is that is close to 30% turnout. not too shabby in the circumstances.

[Terry Weldon]

Good question - but boundary review will make it easier. Chiddingfold PD, the bigger one and our stringest area by some way, becomes a singke member ward, With Dunsfold splitting off and paired with Afold.

[andrewp]

Arundel and Walberton

Green 873
Con 529
Lab 407

A relatively good Labour vote as the most local candidate

[john07]

Dec 1, 2022 22:44:29 GMT batman said:

Dec 1, 2022 13:03:50 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew's Previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-city-of-chester-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-1st-december-2022-374e0592466e

having been reminded by Andrew of the Romans' name for Chester, one could argue that one of the many MPs to be named after a constituency was Nirj Deva, Tory MP for Brentford & Isleworth from 1992 to 1997.

Frank Hooley was nearly there for Heeley!

[batman]

and Denis & John Healey closer still!

[andrewteale]

The Bitterne percentages are reported as
Lab 46.0
C 45.3
Grn 3.8
LD 3.5
TUSC 1.5