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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 18, 2022 16:28:11 GMT
I note that Labour was elected before the Green redistribution. They didn't redistribute the SNP as well, because Labour had a majority of the original vote cast by then, and so the result doesn't look jarring, but it's the same principle as ever.
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 18, 2022 17:21:27 GMT
I note that Labour was elected before the Green redistribution. They didn't redistribute the SNP as well, because Labour had a majority of the original vote cast by then, and so the result doesn't look jarring, but it's the same principle as ever. Yes. I think there should be a regulation to the effect that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes in a single-seat contest. Though that would deprive of us the possibly interesting information that the Green vote split 257 SNP, 150 Labour & 96 non-transfers. There is a regulation saying that a candidate is elected when they're the only one left, but it's never been implemented by the computerised counting system. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 18, 2022 17:22:19 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 18, 2022 18:12:56 GMT
Although to be fair, he doesn't specify which May, and it was 500 votes last May - maybe he's just lost a year somewhere  |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 18, 2022 19:01:27 GMT
I note that Labour was elected before the Green redistribution. They didn't redistribute the SNP as well, because Labour had a majority of the original vote cast by then, and so the result doesn't look jarring, but it's the same principle as ever. Yes. I think there should be a regulation to the effect that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes in a single-seat contest. Though that would deprive of us the possibly interesting information that the Green vote split 257 SNP, 150 Labour & 96 non-transfers. There is a regulation saying that a candidate is elected when they're the only one left, but it's never been implemented by the computerised counting system. There already is. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 18, 2022 19:45:01 GMT
Yes. I think there should be a regulation to the effect that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes in a single-seat contest. Though that would deprive of us the possibly interesting information that the Green vote split 257 SNP, 150 Labour & 96 non-transfers. There is a regulation saying that a candidate is elected when they're the only one left, but it's never been implemented by the computerised counting system. There already is. Indeed. I have trawled through the regulations and found it at Rule 55. Very good. But for some reason Rule 55 seems only to apply to manual counts. So you can do daft things, as long as they are buried in a computer program! And furthermore, those conducting the recent by-election in Moray, where there was a manual count, seem to have been blissfully unaware of Rule 55. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2022 0:05:12 GMT
Blackburn with Darwen: Darwen South - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Labour | 569 | 44.9% | +6.6% | +18.4% | +9.2% | +15.6% | +15.4% | | Conservative | 562 | 44.3% | -1.8% | -9.7% | -7.9% | +0.5% | +1.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 137 | 10.8% | -4.9% | -8.7% | from nowhere | -16.1% | -16.7% | | For Britain |
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| -12.1% |
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| | Total votes | 1,268 |
| 66% | 66% | 70% | 59% | 62% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 4¼% since May, 14% since 2021, 8½% since 2109 and 7¼% / 7% since 2018 Council now: 37 Labour, 13 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Blackpool: Greenlands - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 550 | 48.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +6.8% | +7.2% | | Conservative | 518 | 45.2% | -6.6% | -6.5% | +8.8% | +9.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 77 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -22.3% | -22.9% | | Total votes | 1,145 |
| 78% | 80% | 37% | 38% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 3¼% since 2019 but Labour to Conservative 1% since 2015 Council now 20 Labour, 15 Conservative, 4 Non-aligned Independent, 3 Blackpool Independent Bolsover: Pinxton - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 376 | 63.3% | +13.9% | +24.3% | +19.9% | +1.8% | +4.3% | | Conservative | 218 | 36.7% | +3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -1.6% | -8.2% | -9.5% |
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| -52.8% | -47.1% | -38.5% | -41.0% | | Total votes | 594 |
| 66% | 77% | 89% | 38% | 41% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 5¼% since 2021 by-election otherwise not meaningful Council now: 20 Labour, 10 Independent Group, 4 Community Independent, 3 Conservative Glasgow: Linn - Labour hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2017 | | Labour | 2,227 | 43.4% | +11.4% | +16.4% | | SNP | 1,702 | 33.2% | -0.2% | -2.4% | | Green | 409 | 8.0% | +1.9% | +4.7% | | Conservative | 327 | 6.4% | -5.1% | -9.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 294 | 5.7% | -0.6% | -2.0% | | Alba | 90 | 1.8% | +0.5% | from nowhere | | Scottish Socialist | 46 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 19 | 0.4% | from nowhere | -0.3% | | Freedom Alliance | 18 | 0.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | No Description |
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| -0.8% | | Total votes | 5,132 |
| 57% | 58% |
Swing: SNP to Labour 5¾% since May and 9½% since 2017
Council now: 37 SNP, 36 Labour, 10 Green, 2 Conservative
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2022 0:05:23 GMT
Oldham: Hollinwood - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Labour | 718 | 44.8% | -14.1% | -7.7% | -11.4% | -26.8% | -29.1% | | Conservative | 639 | 39.8% | +21.6% | +15.6% | +32.9% | +18.7% | +20.8% | | Independent | 152 | 9.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | National Housing | 59 | 3.7% | -6.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 36 | 2.2% | -6.6% | -2.9% | -4.4% | -5.0% | -4.8% | | Northern Heart |
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| | Total votes | 1,604 |
| 94% | 81% | 91% | 96% | 99% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 17¾% since May, 11¾% since 2021, 22¼% since 2019 and 22¾% / 25% since 2018 Council now: 35 Labour, 9 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 5 Failsworth Independent, 2 Independent Rhondda Cynon Taf: Abercynon - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Labour | 520 | 80.0% | +18.7% | +19.6% | +31.7% | +31.1% | | Conservative | 56 | 8.6% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -0.4% | +1.3% | | Plaid Cymru | 56 | 8.6% | -7.0% | -7.4% | -1.5% | -2.1% | | Green | 18 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.8% | -5.3% | | Propel |
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| -16.8% | -17.8% | | UKIP |
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| -8.1% | -7.3% | | Total votes | 650 |
| 43% | 44% | 37% | 39% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 59 Labour, 6 Plaid Cymru, 6 Independent, 2 Conservative Shetland: Shetland West - Independent hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | | Independent Robinson | 375 | 76.4% | +59.5% | | Green | 67 | 13.6% | +4.5% | | SNP | 49 | 10.0% | +2.2% | | Independent Boxwell |
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| -39.3% | | Independent Leask |
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| -17.8% | | Independent Holt |
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| -5.7% | | Independent Tinkler |
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| -2.8% | | Independent Fraser |
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| -0.7% | | Total votes | 491 |
| 65% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 20 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 SNP, 1 Green Suffolk: Beccles - Green hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Green | 2,114 | 70.5% | +18.5% | +19.5% | +29.2% | +31.2% | | Conservative | 624 | 20.8% | -19.7% | -20.1% | -21.5% | -24.4% | | Labour | 260 | 8.7% | +1.2% | +0.7% | -1.5% | -1.2% | | UKIP |
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| -2.0% | -2.1% | | Total vote | 2,998 |
| 60% | 65% | 57% | 63% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 19% / 19¾% since 2021 and 25½% / 27¾% since 2017 Council now: 55 Conservative, 9 Green, 5 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 West Suffolk Independent, 1 Independent
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2022 6:12:47 GMT
strikingly good Tory performance & bad Labour performance in Oldham. Wonder what the issues were there Hannah Roberts herself referenced "toxicity" without giving any more detail. At a guess, there will have been suggestions of carpet bagging, as her previous political base was Royton, which is the other side of Oldham. Oldham is more cobbled-together than people realise, and the two places aren't particularly similar. Not to the same degree as Failsworth, but Hollinwood feels more "Manchester" than Royton does. andrewteale's excellent preview didn't mention that Hollinwood had its very own mummy at one point! en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Mummy |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 19, 2022 12:00:05 GMT
Oldham was one of the most noticeable Labour underperformances last May, doing arguably worse than 2021. When a council has issues, by-elections can see some freakishly bad results for them.
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Post by danpoulter on Nov 20, 2022 13:12:06 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotboxscot · 8m Linn (Glasgow) by-election, first preferences: Labour: 2227 (43.4%, +11.4) SNP: 1702 (33.2%, -0.2) Green: 409 (8.0%, +1.9) Con: 327 (6.4%, -5.1) Lib Dem: 294 (5.7%, -0.6) Alba: 90 (1.8%, +0.5) SSP: 46 (0.9%, new) UKIP: 19 (0.4%, new) FA: 18 (0.4%, new) Good result for Labour although the very low turnout especially in Castlemilk probably hurt the SNP a lot more in addition to Con-Lab switching particularly in Carmunnock etc. Polling district data will be interesting. The proper electoral test for Scottish Labour however is really the Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by election on 1 Dec where Labour was 12.3% behind the SNP in May which was also caused by a Labour incumbent death. That will be extremely interesting. Tories could be in a mess there with a former Tory councillor there who lost out in Linlithgow also standing as an independent. |
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Post by Clark on Nov 20, 2022 15:01:27 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotboxscot · 8m Linn (Glasgow) by-election, first preferences: Labour: 2227 (43.4%, +11.4) SNP: 1702 (33.2%, -0.2) Green: 409 (8.0%, +1.9) Con: 327 (6.4%, -5.1) Lib Dem: 294 (5.7%, -0.6) Alba: 90 (1.8%, +0.5) SSP: 46 (0.9%, new) UKIP: 19 (0.4%, new) FA: 18 (0.4%, new) Good result for Labour although the very low turnout especially in Castlemilk probably hurt the SNP a lot more in addition to Con-Lab switching particularly in Carmunnock etc. Polling district data will be interesting. The proper electoral test for Scottish Labour however is really the Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by election on 1 Dec where Labour was 12.3% behind the SNP in May which was also caused by a Labour incumbent death. That will be extremely interesting. Tories could be in a mess there with a former Tory councillor there who lost out in Linlithgow also standing as an independent. Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 20, 2022 19:06:57 GMT
Good result for Labour although the very low turnout especially in Castlemilk probably hurt the SNP a lot more in addition to Con-Lab switching particularly in Carmunnock etc. Polling district data will be interesting. The proper electoral test for Scottish Labour however is really the Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by election on 1 Dec where Labour was 12.3% behind the SNP in May which was also caused by a Labour incumbent death. That will be extremely interesting. Tories could be in a mess there with a former Tory councillor there who lost out in Linlithgow also standing as an independent. Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? counters at the table usually call it near enough |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 20, 2022 19:30:48 GMT
Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? counters at the table usually call it near enough I figure that the process requires slower assessment of each ballot paper, making it easy to get a very accurate tally? |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 20, 2022 20:15:30 GMT
Good result for Labour although the very low turnout especially in Castlemilk probably hurt the SNP a lot more in addition to Con-Lab switching particularly in Carmunnock etc. Polling district data will be interesting. The proper electoral test for Scottish Labour however is really the Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by election on 1 Dec where Labour was 12.3% behind the SNP in May which was also caused by a Labour incumbent death. That will be extremely interesting. Tories could be in a mess there with a former Tory councillor there who lost out in Linlithgow also standing as an independent. Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? Scotland can publish this for local elections because they have electronic counts. |
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Post by Clark on Nov 20, 2022 21:33:23 GMT
Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? Scotland can publish this for local elections because they have electronic counts. Thanks. Do you know where this info can be found and for how long has Scotland being doing this, do you know? Was it done for this year's local elections? |
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Post by Clark on Nov 20, 2022 21:45:54 GMT
It's okay - found it on Ballot Box Scotland website.
Popcorn out !
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 20, 2022 22:40:55 GMT
Polling district data? Is this something that is readily available after elections? Scotland can publish this for local elections because they have electronic counts. If only that would happen in England, hours of fun analysing the results! |
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listener
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Post by listener on Nov 21, 2022 12:48:56 GMT
The Glasgow count could have been short-circuited by eliminating the four bottom candidates together at Stage Two, since the Alba Party candidate would not have survived, even if she received a transfer of every single vote of the the other three candidates.
This technique is sometimes used in Northern Ireland counts.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 21, 2022 13:39:47 GMT
The Glasgow count could have been short-circuited by eliminating the four bottom candidates together at Stage Two, since the Alba Party candidate would not have survived, even if she received a transfer of every single vote of the the other three candidates. This technique is sometimes used in Northern Ireland counts. That method is used in all proper AV counts which are done properly and correctly. |
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