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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 4, 2022 13:08:37 GMT
For Longstanton, the congestion charge will definitely have had an impact - the guided busway is helpful for Northstowe, but isn't that convenient for Longstanton and Oakington, nor for anybody who doesn't work centrally in Cambridge or along the route, so most people will be commuting by car. The Labour campaign pushed the issue of lack of services in Northstowe, which is partially a consequence of decisions made by the previous Tory administration but a fair amount of it can also be blamed on the current administration. I would imagine that for the Tories complaining about the existence of Northstowe also won them votes in Longstanton and Oakington, both of which are probably more likely to turn out than Northstowe as they're longer-standing communities. Not sure who the independent will have been taking votes from.
I'd also add that Northstowe is a good example of a new development which boosts LD prospects at a local level because the new residents are mostly anti-Tory and that's the most effective method of being anti-Tory in South Cambs, but can potentially harm them locally because the new residents are sociologically more likely to be Labour voters and in many cases will be moving from areas where they previously voted Tory. This is exacerbated because the LDs don't have a long-established electoral presence in the ward (both Oakington and Longstanton used to be extremely Tory) so they'll get fewer personal/community activism votes from people who might otherwise vote Tory than they do in some nearby areas.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2022 13:10:20 GMT
And the SNP win in Moray is confirmed at the 4th stage It was already confirmed at the 3rd stage because 1192 is more than 904 plus 276
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 4, 2022 13:21:00 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +76 SNP +51 Grn +12 LDm -29 Con -171
ASV
Lab +1.3 SNP +0.9 Grn +0.2 LDm -0.5 Con -2.8
Con: Longstanton was a bit of good news, but more than outweighed by basically everything else. Lab: Only significant result was Chasetown LDm: St Paul's and Longstanton cancel each other out; Buckie was poor, but academically so as has been discussed Grn: Small positive scores in Selsdon and Longstanton
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 4, 2022 13:24:28 GMT
And the SNP win in Moray is confirmed at the 4th stage It was already confirmed at the 3rd stage because 1192 is more than 904 plus 276 That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew.
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 4, 2022 13:28:32 GMT
GWBWI Lab +76 SNP +51 Grn +12 LDm -29 Con -171 ASV Lab +1.3 SNP +0.9 Grn +0.2 LDm -0.5 Con -2.8 Con: Longstanton was a bit of good news, but more than outweighed by basically everything else. Lab: Only significant result was Chasetown LDm: St Paul's and Longstanton cancel each other out; Buckie was poor, but academically so as has been discussed Grn: Small positive scores in Selsdon and Longstanton The swings away from the Tories in the red wall wards in Lichfield and Eastwood are the main takeaways for me.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 13:36:16 GMT
GWBWI Lab +76 SNP +51 Grn +12 LDm -29 Con -171 ASV Lab +1.3 SNP +0.9 Grn +0.2 LDm -0.5 Con -2.8 Con: Longstanton was a bit of good news, but more than outweighed by basically everything else. Lab: Only significant result was Chasetown LDm: St Paul's and Longstanton cancel each other out; Buckie was poor, but academically so as has been discussed Grn: Small positive scores in Selsdon and Longstanton The swings away from the Tories in the red wall wards in Lichfield and Eastwood are the main takeaways for me. Not sure I would read too much into Eastwood, as the Zardozny machine can swallow all before it. You would expect that the change from Johnson to Sunak could lead to the Tories doing better in the blue wall and worse in the red wall ( to use 2 wretched phrases) and there are just signs of both things starting to happen.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Nov 4, 2022 13:36:49 GMT
It was already confirmed at the 3rd stage because 1192 is more than 904 plus 276 That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew. Looking at the count paper, the quota was 1199, and the count had to go to stage 4 as 1192 < 1199. 23 non-transferable ballots didn't reduce the quota, even though they made it impossible for the 2nd/3rd place candidates to overtake the SNP. Glorious pedantry for a Friday afternoon.
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 4, 2022 13:45:45 GMT
It was already confirmed at the 3rd stage because 1192 is more than 904 plus 276 That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew. The extra stage is the result of the "fixed quota" STV counting system used in Scotland. It could be corrected by simply saying in the regulations that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes. But there's sod all chance of the Scottish Government doing anything so sensible. I'm slightly surprised that Moray Council did the extra stage as it was a manual count and the futility would have been obvious. Incidentally, the Council website says that the winner got 1172 at stage 4 - a loss of 20 on stage 3!
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 4, 2022 13:54:10 GMT
Some AV/STV rules have clauses that either state the RO should declare a candidate elected as soon as it is impossible for them to be defeated or else reduce the quota. Others, especially when computer counting is involved, are more rigid in keeping the initial quota fixed and requiring additional rounds even when it's generally pointless. There is also an element of "how best to match how the system has been explained to the lay voter" in running counts (usually found in eliminating candidates one by one even if more than one is already unviable).
But as a general rule never let political committees try to write STV rules.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2022 13:56:15 GMT
That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew. The extra stage is the result of the "fixed quota" STV counting system used in Scotland. It could be corrected by simply saying in the regulations that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes. But there's sod all chance of the Scottish Government doing anything so sensible. I'm slightly surprised that Moray Council did the extra stage as it was a manual count and the futility would have been obvious. Incidentally, the Council website says that the winner got 1172 at stage 4 - a loss of 20 on stage 3! It's something Scottish councils seem to do annoyingly often - giving the 1st preference vote and the stage elected in a way that makes it look like it's the vote at that stage...
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 4, 2022 14:04:07 GMT
GWBWI Lab +76 SNP +51 Grn +12 LDm -29 Con -171 ASV Lab +1.3 SNP +0.9 Grn +0.2 LDm -0.5 Con -2.8 Con: Longstanton was a bit of good news, but more than outweighed by basically everything else. Lab: Only significant result was Chasetown LDm: St Paul's and Longstanton cancel each other out; Buckie was poor, but academically so as has been discussed Grn: Small positive scores in Selsdon and Longstanton The swings away from the Tories in the red wall wards in Lichfield and Eastwood are the main takeaways for me. Yes - it just needs smeone in a position to take advantage.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 4, 2022 14:38:35 GMT
That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew. The extra stage is the result of the "fixed quota" STV counting system used in Scotland. It could be corrected by simply saying in the regulations that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes. But there's sod all chance of the Scottish Government doing anything so sensible. I'm slightly surprised that Moray Council did the extra stage as it was a manual count and the futility would have been obvious. Incidentally, the Council website says that the winner got 1172 at stage 4 - a loss of 20 on stage 3! Then there are provisions for transferable negative votes or they cocked it up.
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Nov 4, 2022 14:50:23 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 4, 2022 15:32:58 GMT
That's why stage 4 was a confirmation, i.e. it told us what we already knew. The extra stage is the result of the "fixed quota" STV counting system used in Scotland. It could be corrected by simply saying in the regulations that a candidate is elected when they have a majority of remaining votes. But there's sod all chance of the Scottish Government doing anything so sensible. I'm slightly surprised that Moray Council did the extra stage as it was a manual count and the futility would have been obvious. Incidentally, the Council website says that the winner got 1172 at stage 4 - a loss of 20 on stage 3! Like you said, for those doing the additional manual count,the futility was obvious, and it shows!
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2022 17:04:02 GMT
How did the Tories do in Croydon compared to expectations? Better than. It could have been a three-way marginal.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 4, 2022 18:20:10 GMT
WARREN-GREEN, Natalie (Liberal Democrat) I wonder if she's any relation to Christopher (violin) and Nigel (cello).
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xenon
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Post by xenon on Nov 4, 2022 22:41:50 GMT
Council now: 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 3 Independent, 1 Conservative Non-aligned (elected Conservative), 1 Green Just to add that there were three Labour councillors elected in Moray in May as well.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 5, 2022 0:18:53 GMT
Council now: 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 3 Independent, 1 Conservative Non-aligned (elected Conservative), 1 Green Just to add that there were three Labour councillors elected in Moray in May as well. Thanks, now corrected.
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Post by listener on Nov 7, 2022 17:12:32 GMT
The by-election on 1 December in the Gaywood Clock ward of King's Lynn and West Norfolk is uncontested - a Labour hold. The result in 2019 was Lab 196, UKIP 148, Con 133.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2022 11:12:43 GMT
The by-election on 1 December in the Gaywood Clock ward of King's Lynn and West Norfolk is uncontested - a Labour hold. The result in 2019 was Lab 196, UKIP 148, Con 133. Shame it wasn't Lib Dem, would have made a hell of a bar chart! Even the LibDems would struggle to make a convincing bar chart for an election where they don't even stand
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