maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Nov 4, 2022 0:14:39 GMT
Longstanton LD 578 Con 566 LD 534 Ind 422 Lab 411 Con 394 Lab 266 Green 169 Green 85 Using top vote: LD 26.9% (-39.3) Con 26.4% (+5.2) Ind 19.7% Lab 19.2% (+6.6) Grn 7.9% |
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 4, 2022 0:21:38 GMT
Longstanton LD 578 Con 566 LD 534 Ind 422 Lab 411 Con 394 Lab 266 Green 169 Green 85 Using top vote: LD 26.9% (-39.3) Con 26.4% (+5.2) Ind 19.7% Lab 19.2% (+6.6) Grn 7.9% 1 extra Labour candidate 2 new Green candidates 1 new Independent candidate So anti-Tory vote split in all directions. Lib Dems are also the governing party so that means they get all the flack when things go wrong. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2022 0:21:47 GMT
I suspect like a lot of seemingly "unexplainable" results, local activism and organisation played a large role. In this case both parties lost seats on councils where they have a majority as well
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 4, 2022 0:29:49 GMT
NOTTS CC, Eastwood - Ind gain from C
Ind 1223 Lab 1182 C 431
Yes, it's a Jason Zadrozny special. Eastwood is in the Ashfield constituency.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Nov 4, 2022 0:32:14 GMT
Longstanton LD 578 Con 566 LD 534 Ind 422 Lab 411 Con 394 Lab 266 Green 169 Green 85 Using top vote: LD 26.9% (-39.3) Con 26.4% (+5.2) Ind 19.7% Lab 19.2% (+6.6) Grn 7.9% Looks like one where calculating percentages using ballots cast might be more illuminating. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 4, 2022 0:38:26 GMT
Using top vote: LD 26.9% (-39.3) Con 26.4% (+5.2) Ind 19.7% Lab 19.2% (+6.6) Grn 7.9% Looks like one where calculating percentages using ballots cast might be more illuminating. Bygott & Warren-Green elected. First alphabetically in both cases with both of the second candidates surnames on the ballots beginning with Z... |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Nov 4, 2022 0:39:42 GMT
NOTTS CC, Eastwood - Ind gain from C Ind 1223 Lab 1182 C 431 Yes, it's a Jason Zadrozny special. Eastwood is in the Ashfield constituency. Another big anti-Tory midlands swing. There must be personal votes in Longstanton? Much bigger gaps than usual between the pairs from each party. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Nov 4, 2022 0:42:31 GMT
NOTTS CC, Eastwood - Ind gain from C Ind 1223 Lab 1182 C 431 Yes, it's a Jason Zadrozny special. Eastwood is in the Ashfield constituency. Ind 43.1% Lab 41.7% (-0.1) Con 15.2% (-31.2) |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on Nov 4, 2022 0:43:12 GMT
Another example of name hostility - Zargar and Zeegen.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 0:44:08 GMT
NOTTS CC, Eastwood - Ind gain from C Ind 1223 Lab 1182 C 431 Yes, it's a Jason Zadrozny special. Eastwood is in the Ashfield constituency. You paved the way for that in your preview. I did wonder when doing the prediction competition. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 4, 2022 0:59:27 GMT
This has turned up in my Twitter replies as another explanation for the Longstanton result:
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Nov 4, 2022 2:13:24 GMT
As a former Chairman of Salisbury LD's the St Paul's vote gives me a warm glow...
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Post by matureleft on Nov 4, 2022 3:56:36 GMT
This has turned up in my Twitter replies as another explanation for the Longstanton result: For Labour it’s a fairly decent result. One candidate was clearly stronger than the other and the party resisted any squeeze. Another result where perceived candidate quality, local issues and organisation made a difference. Good. That’s what should happen. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 7:51:33 GMT
NOTTS CC, Eastwood - Ind gain from C Ind 1223 Lab 1182 C 431 Yes, it's a Jason Zadrozny special. Eastwood is in the Ashfield constituency. Another big anti-Tory midlands swing. There must be personal votes in Longstanton? Much bigger gaps than usual between the pairs from each party. Having 1 Indy, who polled quite well, and 4 pairs probably created some of the gaps too. Of the 4, only the higher Green beat the alphabet. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2022 9:40:02 GMT
I have been thinking a bit more about the possible result of the Croydon SVF by-election.
Experience says that there is often a big difference between the share of the vote for each party in (a) early postal votes (b) later postal votes (c) polling station votes. Thusly I reckon it could realistically be anything between:
Conservative 880 to 1160
Green 310 to 580
Labour 210 to 450
Pelling 150 to 320
Lib Dem 60 to 170
Total 2100 to 2220
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 4, 2022 9:50:54 GMT
Presumably many of the postal votes for these would have been cast when the wheels really came off the Truss administration.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,664
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Post by pl on Nov 4, 2022 10:14:07 GMT
I have been thinking a bit more about the possible result of the Croydon SVF by-election. Experience says that there is often a big difference between the share of the vote for each party in (a) early postal votes (b) later postal votes (c) polling station votes. Thusly I reckon it could realistically be anything between: Conservative 880 to 1160 Green 310 to 580 Labour 210 to 450 Pelling 150 to 320 Lib Dem 60 to 170 Total 2100 to 2220 Indeed, I have seen a number of cases over the years of the Conservative candidate coming in third in the on the day voting, and then win handsomely once the postal votes are included. Much more likely to happen in a by-election than an all out of course. |
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Post by Jonathan on Nov 4, 2022 10:19:49 GMT
Will Jason Zadrozny run for Westminster again in 2024?
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Post by batman on Nov 4, 2022 10:20:51 GMT
probably
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2022 10:21:11 GMT
I have been thinking a bit more about the possible result of the Croydon SVF by-election. Experience says that there is often a big difference between the share of the vote for each party in (a) early postal votes (b) later postal votes (c) polling station votes. Thusly I reckon it could realistically be anything between: Conservative 880 to 1160 Green 310 to 580 Labour 210 to 450 Pelling 150 to 320 Lib Dem 60 to 170 Total 2100 to 2220 Indeed, I have seen a number of cases over the years of the Conservative candidate coming in third in the on the day voting, and then win handsomely once the postal votes are included. Much more likely to happen in a by-election than an all out of course. In Croydon we have lots of experience of noticing how the share of the votes changes for the two main parties. This time the big unknown factor is that the main challenge is from the Green Party; it’s difficult to guess how much that might change. |
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