Local Council by-elections 3rd November 2022

[phil156]

Only Moray and Croydon declare on Friday all other wards is Thursday evening

[shadsy]

Nov 1, 2022 15:55:11 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 1, 2022 8:37:45 GMT shadsy said:

Selsdon market available at Smarkets

smarkets.com/event/42986807/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/11/03/22-00/selsdon-vale-forestdale-by-election

What's the difference between the green and blue squares?

The numbers in the green squares are the odds to bet on each of the candidates to win. If you put £1 on Labour at 8.6, you'd get £8.60 in return if they won.
The blue squares represent the "lay" price where you can bet on any particular candidate NOT to win. So, if you think the Conservatives will lose, but have no particular view on who will win, you can do that as well. 

[John Chanin]

Andrew's preview

[johnloony]

Andrew Pelling reports the turnout in SVF in the polling stations to be 722 up to 5pm. Experience says that 5pm is about the half-way point in on-the-day turnout. Postal votes up to last Thursday were 436. I reckon all of that extrapolates to c.2,500 turnout.

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 3, 2022 13:25:38 GMT John Chanin said:

Andrew's preview

I stayed in the Selsdon Park Hotel several times in late 2003 when engaged on some work for Croydon LBC. I was aware of the political connection, and was amused, on my first visit, to be placed in the "Heseltine suite". Of course not every room rejoiced in such a designation and I never found myself in a Heath, Barber, Carrington suite or similar. The hotel itself was fairly grand but not overwhelmingly so.

[johnloony]

Croydon SVF I predict

Con 43% Green 22% Lab 18% Pelling 11% LD 6%

If I told you what I accidentally noticed from the first session of postal votes last Friday, I would be quoting different percentages from the above

[timrollpickering]

The City of London polls close earlier and the local Labour Party are reporting that Hugh Selka has won. No figures as yet.

[ricmk]

Big win for Labour as well: 318 votes for Labour against Conservatives who picked up 116 votes.

73:27 I think

[johnloony]

Croydon SVF: Andrew Pelling reports turnout of 1,247 up to 9pm
which extrapolates to about 1,308 up to 10pm
Postal votes are 857
Total turnout is therefore about 2,165 which is about 29%

I predict Con 950 Green 500 Lab 370 Pelling 260 LD 90

by the way I won’t be at the count this time

[olympian95]

LD gain in Salisbury

[andrewp]

Salisbury St Paul’s

LD 830
Lab 237
Con 213

[peter]

Conservative gain in Longstanton.

[andrewp]

Longstanton is 1 x Con and 1 x LD, that’s unexpected.

[batman]

this is weird, another Tory gain of an apparently safe LD seat following on from the one in Portchester. And yet their performance in Salisbury is lamentable.

[iang]

Circumstances of resignation again?

[johnloony]

Nov 3, 2022 22:16:37 GMT johnloony said:

Croydon SVF I predict

Con 43% Green 22% Lab 18% Pelling 11% LD 6%

If I told you what I accidentally noticed from the first session of postal votes last Friday, I would be quoting different percentages from the above

FWIW a hypothetical observer who hypothetically might have accidentally noticed the postal votes last week might have hypothetically noticed that the Labour Party was in 4th place with less than 10%, behind Andrew Pelling

[maxque]

Nov 4, 2022 0:01:34 GMT andrewp said:

Salisbury St Paul’s

LD 830
Lab 237
Con 213

LD 64.8% (+34.8)
Lab 18.5% (-3.3)
Con 16.6% (-15.7)

[maxque]

Nov 4, 2022 0:04:56 GMT iang said:

Circumstances of resignation again?

They both resigned as it was too hard to balance council, work and family.

[andrewp]

Longstanton

LD 578
Con 566
LD 534
Ind 422
Lab 411
Con 394
Lab 266
Green 169
Green 85

[maxque]

Nov 3, 2022 23:27:39 GMT ricmk said:

Big win for Labour as well: 318 votes for Labour against Conservatives who picked up 116 votes.

73:27 I think

On top vote, that's +15 Labour, -15 Conservative.