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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 4, 2022 10:24:40 GMT
Another big anti-Tory midlands swing. There must be personal votes in Longstanton? Much bigger gaps than usual between the pairs from each party. Having 1 Indy, who polled quite well, and 4 pairs probably created some of the gaps too. Of the 4, only the higher Green beat the alphabet. No doubt the LD votes don't all come from plumpers either, their personal votes just cancelled out somewhat. Would be really interesting to see the number of voters who voted for at least one of their candidates, but of course that's not available. (Really interesting to a few weird anoraks like myself.) What is of course available in principle and always interesting is the undervote, ie the number of people who voted for only one candidate. I do wish that were routinely included in results coverage of multimember fptp.  In this case, with 1801 valid ballots and 3425 valid votes, it's 177. Now just for funsies: the indy, with no running mate, received 422 votes. At least 245 of these must have also voted for a party candidate (the real number would have been higher). Adding up the gaps between each party's candidates gets you 445. So it's numerically certain that votesplitting wasn't limited to indy/party x and party x/blank types; there must be considerable numbers of party x/party y ballots here. |
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Nov 4, 2022 10:40:42 GMT
I have been thinking a bit more about the possible result of the Croydon SVF by-election. Experience says that there is often a big difference between the share of the vote for each party in (a) early postal votes (b) later postal votes (c) polling station votes. Thusly I reckon it could realistically be anything between: Conservative 880 to 1160 Green 310 to 580 Labour 210 to 450 Pelling 150 to 320 Lib Dem 60 to 170 Total 2100 to 2220 I would be a disappointed if the Greens weren't closer to the higher end of your prediction, just based on data I've seen anyway. The wheels didn't really start turning until the final week or so of the campaign, we would have benefited from another couple weeks. I spoke to several people yesterday who always voted Conservative, but were voting Green for the first time, but more out of protest. I'm pretty certain we performed much better with those voting on the day compared with PVs. |
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mrtoad
Labour
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Post by mrtoad on Nov 4, 2022 10:53:22 GMT
I stayed in the Selsdon Park Hotel several times in late 2003 when engaged on some work for Croydon LBC. I was aware of the political connection, and was amused, on my first visit, to be placed in the "Heseltine suite". Of course not every room rejoiced in such a designation and I never found myself in a Heath, Barber, Carrington suite or similar. The hotel itself was fairly grand but not overwhelmingly so. I'd have liked to have stayed in the Reggie Maudling suite, if only to see the state of the mini-bar. |
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Post by rockefeller on Nov 4, 2022 10:55:15 GMT
This was a decent result for the Tories.
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mrtoad
Labour
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Post by mrtoad on Nov 4, 2022 10:57:40 GMT
One of my proudest moments when I taught political history - this is a while ago - was when some of my (American) students spontaneously wrote a song about British politics in the early 1970s - the chorus went "My name is Heath/ They call me 'Selsdon Man'"... I felt I had been successful in my bid to make it interesting.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 11:05:18 GMT
Moray turnout is 29.6%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 4, 2022 11:06:13 GMT
This was a decent result for the Tories. Already discussed upthread, along with the possible reasons for it. |
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Post by olympian95 on Nov 4, 2022 11:38:43 GMT
Croydon
Tories 983
greens 530
lab 372
Pelling 168
Lib 72
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Post by threecrowns on Nov 4, 2022 11:41:52 GMT
Will Jason Zadrozny run for Westminster again in 2024? I reckon he'd perform well, he'd take a lot of 2019 Tory votes. I could see Lee Anderson finishing third. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 11:42:38 GMT
Croydon Tories 983 greens 530 lab 372 Pelling 168 Lib 72 Con 46.3% Green 24.9% Lab 17.5% Pelling 7.9% LD 3.4% |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 4, 2022 11:52:27 GMT
Croydon SVF
Andrew Pelling 168 votes is the largest number of votes for an independent candidate in a local council by-election in Croydon since 213 votes (6.7%) for Peter Collier (Independent Resident) in Waddon in 1993
Andrew Pelling 7.9% is the highest share of the vote for an independent candidate in a local council by-election in Croydon since 10.1% (256 votes) for Maurice Dunbar (Local Affairs) in Woodcote & Coulsdon West in 1981
Or both statistics are the highest for several decades if you want to be pedantic about him being specifically a no-description candidate rather than a generic independent / residenty type.
If you want to be pedantic about the specific description “Independent” then it’s the highest since J.R. Simmonds (Independent) 1,221 (27.1%) in East Ward [de-facto Shirley North] in 1972.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 11:58:31 GMT
Buckie 1st preferences
SNP 1172
Con 879
Lab 239
LD 67
Ind 38
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2022 12:02:57 GMT
Buckie 1st preferences SNP 1172 Con 879 Lab 239 LD 67 Ind 38 SNP 48.9% 1st prefs - they ain't being caught And 2.8% for the Lib Dems defending their seat - which is actually not that surprising under the circumstances, but as a statistic out of context is rather amusing... |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 12:11:50 GMT
Buckie 1st preferences SNP 1172 Con 879 Lab 239 LD 67 Ind 38 SNP 48.9% 1st prefs - they ain't being caught And 2.8% for the Lib Dems defending their seat - which is actually not that surprising under the circumstances, but as a statistic out of context is rather amusing... Makes one conclude that either the SNP or the Conservatives would have won a 2nd seat in May had they had a second candidate and that Labour would probably have won the 3rd seat in May had they had a candidate then. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2022 12:15:46 GMT
SNP 48.9% 1st prefs - they ain't being caught And 2.8% for the Lib Dems defending their seat - which is actually not that surprising under the circumstances, but as a statistic out of context is rather amusing... Makes one conclude that either the SNP or the Conservatives would have won a 2nd seat in May had they had a second candidate and that Labour would probably have won the 3rd seat in May had they had a candidate then. I said at the time that SNP would have been kicking themselves for not finding a second candidate for the ward. If it had been fully contested (ie 2 SNP, 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD minimum) then it would probably have finished 2 SNP, 2 Con. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 4, 2022 12:20:54 GMT
Independent Selka 45.18%
Independent Collett 37.95%
Independent Masood 9.64%
Labour 5.4%
Independent Longman 1.8%
Selka had been writing in the ward newsletter and appeared to have the backing of the other sitting councillor and Alderman, so if we treat him as a defending candidate the % changes since previous contests involving Bottomley and/or Levene are:
Since 2022 Alderman -32.84%
Since 2017 Council -41.00% (top), -39.14% (average), -46.35% (divide all by voting power)
Since 2015 Council by -21.19%
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 12:20:59 GMT
After stage 3
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 4, 2022 12:32:56 GMT
So now mathematically impossible for the SNP to be caught, although we'll still get one more stage. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 4, 2022 12:40:07 GMT
Croydon: Selsdon Vales & Forestvale - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Conservative | 983 | 46.3% | -21.2% | -19.3% | -15.4% | -15.7% | | Green | 530 | 24.9% | +8.8% | +8.0% | +17.8% | +18.4% | | Labour | 372 | 17.5% | +1.0% | = | -2.7% | -2.9% | | Independent Pelling | 168 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 72 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.2% | -2.2% | | UKIP |
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| -5.5% | -5.5% | | Total votes | 2,125 |
| 73% | 80% | 66% | 67% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 15% / 13¾% since May and 16½% / 17% since 2018 Council now 34 Labour, 33 Conservative plus Executive Mayor, 2 Green. 1 Liberal Democrat Lichfield: Chasetown - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 318 | 73.3% | +15.2% | +19.0% | +40.7% | +38.8% | | Conservative | 116 | 26.7% | -15.2% | -19.0% | -9.4% | -5.0% | | UKIP |
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| -31.3% | -33.8% | | Total votes | 434 |
| 64% | 70% | 26% | 28% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¼% / 19% since 2019 and 25% / 22% since 2015 Council: 33 Conservative, 11 Labour, 2 Independent (1 elected Conservative), 1 Liberal Democrat Moray: Buckie - SNP gain from Liberal Democratbased on first preferences| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | 2022 result | since 2017 | | SNP | 1,172 | 48.9% | unopposed | +4.6% | | Conservative | 879 | 36.7% | unopposed | +2.3% | | Labour | 239 | 10.0% |
| from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 2.8% | unopposed | from nowhere | | No Description | 38 | 1.6% |
| from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -21.4% | | Total votes | 2,395 |
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| 76% |
Swing: Conservative to SNP 1% since 2017 Council now: 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 3 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Conservative Non-aligned (elected Conservative), 1 Green Nottinghamshire: Eastwood - Independent gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | | Independent | 1,223 | 43.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 1,182 | 41.7% | -0.1% | +18.2% | | Conservative | 431 | 15.2% | -31.2% | -23.3% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -6.9% | -28.1% | | Green |
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| -5.0% | -2.7% | | UKIP |
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| -7.1% | | Total votes | 2,836 |
| 95% | 93% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 35 Conservative, 15 Labour, 11 Ashfield Independent, 4 Independent (1 elected Conservative), 1 Liberal Democrat South Cambridgeshire: Longstanton - Conservative gain one seat, Liberal Democrat holds one seat | Party | 2022B votes
top
candidate | 2022 B votes
second
candidate | 2022 B votes
average | 2022 B share
top
candidate | 2022 B share
average | since 2022
top v top | since 2018
top v top | | Liberal Democrat | 578 | 534 | 556 | 26.9% | 28.9% | -39.3% | -19.7% | | Conservative | 566 | 394 | 480 | 26.4% | 25.0% | +5.2% | -12.4% | | Independent | 422 |
| 422 | 19.7% | 21.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 411 | 266
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| 19.2% | 17.6% | +6.6% | +10.4% | | Green | 169 | 85 | 127 | 7.9% | 6.6% | from nowhere | +2.0% | | Total votes | 2,146 | 1,279 | 1,924 |
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| 107% | 120% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 22¼% since May and 3¾% since 2018 based on top candidate against top candidate and Liberal Democrat to Conservative 21% since May and 2½%since 2018 based on average vote against average vote Council now: 35 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative, 1 Independent (elected as Liberal Democrat) Wiltshire: Salisbury St Pauls - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | | Liberal Democrat | 813 | 64.4% | +34.3% | | Labour | 237 | 18.8% | -3.1% | | Conservative | 213 | 16.9% | -15.4% | | Green |
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| -15.9% | | Total votes | 1,263 |
| 88% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 25% since 2021 Council now: 60 Conservative, 28 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent, 3 Labour
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Post by andrewp on Nov 4, 2022 13:02:30 GMT
And the SNP win in Moray is confirmed at the 4th stage
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