Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 17:45:48 GMT
The idea that Starmer writing in the Sun will have more than a negligible impact on the Labour vote is, frankly, ludicrous. I suspect the number of potential Labour voters who care about it is dwarfed by the number of potential Labour voters who read the Sun!
It strikes me as something only engaged activists would care about and they are a very small part of the electorate
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 30, 2022 18:03:30 GMT
The people of Liverpool have a very understandable grudge against the Sun but I'd imagine a lot of them realise that Labour has a wider audience to try and appeal to in order to actually get in power
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 30, 2022 18:16:12 GMT
I wd assume it depends what he let the Sun write in his name.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 22:07:30 GMT
The idea that Starmer writing in the Sun will have more than a negligible impact on the Labour vote is, frankly, ludicrous. I suspect the number of potential Labour voters who care about it is dwarfed by the number of potential Labour voters who read the Sun! It strikes me as something only engaged activists would care about and they are a very small part of the electorate The number of people who read the Sun in the Liverpool metro area is negligible.... |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Sept 30, 2022 23:12:17 GMT
The ElectionMaps UK Nowcast (which is my favourite as it shows all seats, percentages and majorities conveniently and is an average of all the polls as I understand it so isn’t as ludicrous as those having the Tories on <100 seats) has the Labour vote share for West Lancashire at 69%, a 26,000 majority. Conservative down to 19%.
And a swathe of lost deposits down the road in Liverpool and inner city Manchester. The entirety of Cheshire is red.
Uxbridge was mentioned earlier but by the time there is a BE there I’d assume that would just be equivalent to Wakefield in being a ‘given’ gain regardless of the lack of previous Labour representation there.
On a side note it’s hard to pick which would be the most shocking/symbolic result should that be the map on election night… probably Huntingdon given how safe it was in the hands of a former PM… but other even more rural ones are down as Labour e.g C.Devon, S Norfolk (not SW unfortunately) and even Suffolk Coast which would be the ultimate scalp if true. In the north, Hexham/Berwick won’t even be close and Penrith stays blue by 24 votes. Meanwhile, Mid Bedfordshire by <500, while NE Bedfordshire would fall?!
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 1, 2022 7:00:41 GMT
I think what happened with Davies was that she retired, but then changed her mind, but as Eastleigh Conservatives had already selected a replacement candidate had to find another seat. For the record, I heard from a reliable source who knows her that she was going to do this about six months before it happened so I don't believe it was as you describe. I think she just felt more at home in Mid Sussex where her family lived. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2022 11:52:51 GMT
I also understand that not everybody in Tory HQ was chuffed about it.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2022 11:26:15 GMT
The idea that Starmer writing in the Sun will have more than a negligible impact on the Labour vote is, frankly, ludicrous. I suspect the number of potential Labour voters who care about it is dwarfed by the number of potential Labour voters who read the Sun! It strikes me as something only engaged activists would care about and they are a very small part of the electorate Whilst I agree with (and have indeed liked) this post, thinking about it I wonder if one of Starmer's first announcements in last week's speech (about a "Hillsborough Law") was at least partly with this byelection in mind. |
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Post by samdwebber on Oct 3, 2022 12:30:47 GMT
I also understand that not everybody in Tory HQ was chuffed about it. There were some odd things that went on in the lead up to the 2019 GE in relation to Tory selections and subsequent appointments to the Lords. I recall Ed Vaizey speaking in a debate specifically for MP standing down at that election and announcing he was making some "end of term remarks" but was re-standing. A few days later he announced he was in fact standing down and of course has since popped up again in the Lords as a life peer. John Woodcock and Ian Austin too similarly both endorsed the Tories in 2019 and are now in the Lords (alongside their former colleagues Frank Field, Kate Hoey & Gisela Stuart) |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 3, 2022 19:20:19 GMT
Nicky Morgan standing down and going to the Lords seemed a bit random as well
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 20:00:19 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 6, 2022 8:21:12 GMT
According to Labour List's Katie Neame, longlist for Labour selection: Ashley Dalton. From Preston CLP. Stood in Burnley selection recently. Michael Denoual. This one? twitter.com/michaeldenoual. Stood in South Ribble locals a decade ago Emma Fox. Lindsay Hoyle's daughter. Recently stood in Warrington South selection. emmafox.ukJulie Gibson. Lancashire County Cllr for Skelmersdale West Louise Harbour. Former Knowsley Cllr. Nicola Hennessy. Lancashire County Cllr for Ormskirk Adam Yates. West Lancashire Cllr (Knowsley ward) |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2022 8:41:38 GMT
The speaker’s daughter being in parliament would make some interesting exchanges
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Post by matureleft on Oct 6, 2022 8:48:51 GMT
It would also be pretty unusual (unique?) to have three generations of a family representing Labour. Lindsay's dad was a Warrington MP (and Nelson and Colne before that). He's still alive.
Incidentally, it’s not clear what her dad’s intentions are?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2022 9:40:03 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Oct 6, 2022 15:24:34 GMT
It would also be pretty unusual (unique?) to have three generations of a family representing Labour. Lindsay's dad was a Warrington MP (and Nelson and Colne before that). He's still alive. Incidentally, it’s not clear what her dad’s intentions are? Not unique, Hilary Benn is a 3rd generation Labour MP (and a 4th generation MP) |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Oct 7, 2022 8:37:48 GMT
Labour shortlist as per Michael Crick:
Ashley Dalton, from Preston who ran for Burnley nomination and stood in Rochford and Southend East in 2017 and 2019.
Emma Fox, science teacher from Warrington who ran for the nomination in Warrington South.
Louise Harbour, Knowsley Councillor for Whitefield ward in Kirkby 2018-22 and Deputy Leader of that council 2021-22.
No local candidates on the shortlist - local councillors Julie Gibson and Adam Yates were longlisted but didn't make it through.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2022 9:31:05 GMT
Its possible the last named actually lives in the constituency given that Kirkby borders this seat.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2022 14:14:24 GMT
Its possible the last named actually lives in the constituency given that Kirkby borders this seat. She gave an address in the ward she was representing last local elections. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 8, 2022 11:37:03 GMT
The way things are going, this might very well be the only parliamentary by-election that occurs under Liz Truss' tenure as PM.
For comparison, here is how badly the Conservatives did in by-elections from 1992-97 (most of Sir John Major's tenure as PM) when they were not the defending party but were the runner-up in 1992 (just like in West Lancashire):
Barking (1994): 10.4% (-23.5), dropped to 3rd from 2nd.
Bradford South (1994): 17.8% (-20.5), dropped to 3rd from 2nd.
Dagenham (1994): 9.9% (-26.4)
Newham North East (1994): 14.6 (-15.9)
Rotherham (1994): 9.9% (-13.8), dropped to 3rd from 2nd.
Islwyn (1995): 3.9% (-10.9), dropped to 4th from 2nd and lost their deposit.
Hemsworth (1996): 8.8 (-9.8)
Barnsley East (1996): 7.3 (-6.9), dropped to 3rd from 2nd.
Interestingly enough, the Conservative candidates from these by-elections included a future PM, that future PM's Chancellor of the Exchequer, and 3 future ministers.
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