bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
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Post by bsjmcr on Sept 29, 2022 18:17:42 GMT
So what would the benchmark here be for a 1922/cabinet revolt/#TrussOut campaign? Lost deposit? She won’t be going anywhere despite the recent polls as they’re not ‘real votes’ as it were whereas I’m sure the string of BE defeats was a push factor in #JohnsonOut. But this one isn’t as glossy being a Labour-held seat, so the only headline that would really have a strong effect is ‘Tories lose deposit in West Lancashire!’?!
Any news on Mid Bedfordshire? The complication there is if the rumours are true that Johnson would chicken run there, that could ironically bolster himself and Truss simultaneously who would use it as an excuse to stay even though it will inevitably be a personal vote for his return…
Imagine if she did hasten that process to save herself… desperate times?…
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 20:23:52 GMT
I don't believe that Boris Johnson would voluntarily resign his existing seat to fight a by-election elsewhere which he would be at grave risk of losing. Chicken run in a general election, yes he might try to do that. Not sure whether Conservative Party rules allow it but Mims Davies managed to change constituencies at the last election.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 29, 2022 22:33:05 GMT
I don't believe that Boris Johnson would voluntarily resign his existing seat to fight a by-election elsewhere which he would be at grave risk of losing. Chicken run in a general election, yes he might try to do that. Not sure whether Conservative Party rules allow it but Mims Davies managed to change constituencies at the last election. A really odd change as there isn't a huge difference in safety, although perhaps she perceived there was. That or he excuse about it being better for her family was really true |
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 23:23:04 GMT
I think what happened with Davies was that she retired, but then changed her mind, but as Eastleigh Conservatives had already selected a replacement candidate had to find another seat.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 30, 2022 8:10:12 GMT
Yes but how many people will notice or care? And how many who do notice or care will go out and vote Labour anyway because that's What They do and What They've Always Done Quite a lot of people still violently hate the Sun in Liverpool. And Scousers are not always a monolithic Labour block, a significant minority vote for independents. The ones that leave Liverpool are probably more politically diverse. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 30, 2022 8:26:15 GMT
I think the most interesting question is not whether Labour will hold, it's rather the majority. Because Skem still views itself as part of greater Liverpool culturally, and Starmer's columns in the Sun will not have gone down well. I wonder if a independent candidate will do well as there's some quite significant local government independent success in both Tory and Labour-inclined areas. Don't see this making a difference, am not sure a labour leader choosing the write in the sun is anywhere near the top of people's priorities. And skem is different from liverpool in a number of ways, even if liverpool has some cultural influence. And even if it did make a little bit of a difference, it's probably counteracted by the Ormskirk area trending more and more to labour. Not just the wards that are part of Ormskirk itself but areas just outside Ormskirk as well (hence Aughton Park going to labour at the last local election). Labour should hold this with a very solid majority, definitely increased in % terms, swing of maybe 5 to 10%, don't see much more than 10% swing but would be very good for labour if they managed that. |
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 8:41:42 GMT
Swings in by-elections are almost always bigger than in general elections. With most polls showing swings to Labour well into double-digit territory, the party will definitely be looking for a swing of that size, even in a Labour seat.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2022 9:22:24 GMT
The way things are going, even much of the remaining "loyal" Tory vote simply might not turn out.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 30, 2022 10:09:29 GMT
I don't believe that Boris Johnson would voluntarily resign his existing seat to fight a by-election elsewhere which he would be at grave risk of losing. Chicken run in a general election, yes he might try to do that. Not sure whether Conservative Party rules allow it but Mims Davies managed to change constituencies at the last election. And Labour would be likely to win Uxbridge should he resign. |
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Post by samdwebber on Sept 30, 2022 10:26:44 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 10:26:47 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 13:29:22 GMT
I think the most interesting question is not whether Labour will hold, it's rather the majority. Because Skem still views itself as part of greater Liverpool culturally, and Starmer's columns in the Sun will not have gone down well. I wonder if a independent candidate will do well as there's some quite significant local government independent success in both Tory and Labour-inclined areas. Nothing more than anecdata, but I suspect in quiet times, Starmer writing in the Sun, Rupa Huq's latest thoughts, tensions with the Labour left, Joe Anderson's messy departure etc. would get a hearing and cause some concern. Right now, it's energy prices, financial turmoil, the Government crashing the economy, mortgages, pension funds, all to fund giveaways to the rich - so I can't see any serious numbers caring about those Labour issues which look trivial in comparison. As national issues, yes. But how many of Skem's residents have a big mortgage since house prices are low and there is a high percentage of private renting? Inflation will certainly come up, but Labour can't play "this is all the incumbent Tory MP's fault" card since it's a safe Labour seat. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 13:31:02 GMT
Quite a lot of people still violently hate the Sun in Liverpool. And Scousers are not always a monolithic Labour block, a significant minority vote for independents. Tony Blair got the Sun’s backing but it didn’t stop them electing Labour MPs comfortably That was way before the Hillsborough inquiry concluded. And his success story was based off atrracting swathes of new Town Southern England, not Greater Liverpool. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 13:36:52 GMT
Quite a lot of people still violently hate the Sun in Liverpool. And Scousers are not always a monolithic Labour block, a significant minority vote for independents. The ones that leave Liverpool are probably more politically diverse. Indeed, but not to places like Skem or Kirkby: these places and you'll see why: Mostly low paid warehouse jobs, poor transport links if you rely on public transport, lots of schools requiring improvement. If you're posh/well-paid in Liverpool, you generally head towards Formby/Maghull or out to the Western side of the Wirral. |
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 13:41:43 GMT
I don't believe that Boris Johnson would voluntarily resign his existing seat to fight a by-election elsewhere which he would be at grave risk of losing. Chicken run in a general election, yes he might try to do that. Not sure whether Conservative Party rules allow it but Mims Davies managed to change constituencies at the last election. And Labour would be likely to win Uxbridge should he resign. at present, the word would be certain. By a large majority. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 13:45:32 GMT
I think the most interesting question is not whether Labour will hold, it's rather the majority. Because Skem still views itself as part of greater Liverpool culturally, and Starmer's columns in the Sun will not have gone down well. I wonder if a independent candidate will do well as there's some quite significant local government independent success in both Tory and Labour-inclined areas. Don't see this making a difference, am not sure a labour leader choosing the write in the sun is anywhere near the top of people's priorities. And skem is different from liverpool in a number of ways, even if liverpool has some cultural influence. And even if it did make a little bit of a difference, it's probably counteracted by the Ormskirk area trending more and more to labour. Not just the wards that are part of Ormskirk itself but areas just outside Ormskirk as well (hence Aughton Park going to labour at the last local election). Labour should hold this with a very solid majority, definitely increased in % terms, swing of maybe 5 to 10%, don't see much more than 10% swing but would be very good for labour if they managed that. I'm not saying that it won't be a Labour hold - that is a foregone conclusion. It's the size of the majority which will be notable. The Ormskirk vote, unlike much of the Scouse vote, is vulnerable to swings. It also depends on the turnout of Edge Hill students and staff - up the road here in UCLan, most students are currently completely disillusioned with politics. That is an area with little Scouse influence too. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Sept 30, 2022 13:52:32 GMT
Nothing more than anecdata, but I suspect in quiet times, Starmer writing in the Sun, Rupa Huq's latest thoughts, tensions with the Labour left, Joe Anderson's messy departure etc. would get a hearing and cause some concern. Right now, it's energy prices, financial turmoil, the Government crashing the economy, mortgages, pension funds, all to fund giveaways to the rich - so I can't see any serious numbers caring about those Labour issues which look trivial in comparison. As national issues, yes. But how many of Skem's residents have a big mortgage since house prices are low and there is a high percentage of private renting? Inflation will certainly come up, but Labour can't play "this is all the incumbent Tory MP's fault" card since it's a safe Labour seat. Huh? You're telling me that economic issues won't play here due to low mortgage values, and that Labour can't blame the Tories for the economic crisis as they currently hold the seat. This is a wind-up right? |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 30, 2022 13:56:25 GMT
The ones that leave Liverpool are probably more politically diverse. Indeed, but not to places like Skem or Kirkby: these places and you'll see why: Mostly low paid warehouse jobs, poor transport links if you rely on public transport, lots of schools requiring improvement. If you're posh/well-paid in Liverpool, you generally head towards Formby/Maghull or out to the Western side of the Wirral. I was thinking more out of the Liverpool metro area completely as shocking as the concept seems. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 14:33:21 GMT
As national issues, yes. But how many of Skem's residents have a big mortgage since house prices are low and there is a high percentage of private renting? Inflation will certainly come up, but Labour can't play "this is all the incumbent Tory MP's fault" card since it's a safe Labour seat. Huh? You're telling me that economic issues won't play here due to low mortgage values, and that Labour can't blame the Tories for the economic crisis as they currently hold the seat. This is a wind-up right? No, just that economic issues have always been an issue here, so not an issue of note compared to other areas of the country and that Labour can't motivate voters to come out and vote out those responsible for the economic crisis because Labour hold the seat and those responsible for the economic crisis have absolutely no chance. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 30, 2022 14:35:40 GMT
Indeed, but not to places like Skem or Kirkby: these places and you'll see why: Mostly low paid warehouse jobs, poor transport links if you rely on public transport, lots of schools requiring improvement. If you're posh/well-paid in Liverpool, you generally head towards Formby/Maghull or out to the Western side of the Wirral. I was thinking more out of the Liverpool metro area completely as shocking as the concept seems. Most of the West Lancs seat is firmly in the Liverpool metro area, apart from some fringes in the GM and Central Lancs metro areas. If we were discussing Weaver Vale or Chorley, then maybe some of your comments would be valid. |
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