West Lancashire

[neilm]

This must rate as one of the most boring by elections of recent times, along with Airdrie and Sleaford.

[Arthur Figgis]

Feb 10, 2023 17:51:03 GMT neilm said:

This must rate as one of the most boring by elections of recent times, along with Airdrie and Sleaford.

That would make for an interesting constituency.

[where2travel]

Feb 10, 2023 15:11:03 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Proportional swing (that is to say Conservatives lose 30% of vote share everywhere, Labour increasing by a roughly corresponding amount)

It's funny to think of Hazel Grove as the seat that would be a Tory island in a very large sea of red (except yellow Cheadle), with a lot of ifs and buts of course. It does seem to have a lot of similarities with London's Orpington in its demography and voting patterns.

[jakegb]

Not a great result for the Tories - no denying.
And indeed only 1 seat out of 650 with local factors.

BUT this was no Wirral South or Dudley West in the 1990s (both with significantly higher swings).
They're in trouble - that is true - but no Blair landslide is on the doorstep. More 1974, perhaps?

[Deleted]

I mean if the Tories which to kid themselves that that's the case, fine by me.....

[YL]

Feb 10, 2023 20:01:48 GMT jakegb said:

Not a great result for the Tories - no denying.
And indeed only 1 seat out of 650 with local factors.

BUT this was no Wirral South or Dudley West in the 1990s (both with significantly higher swings).
They're in trouble - that is true - but no Blair landslide is on the doorstep. More 1974, perhaps?

It also wasn't Hemsworth or Barnsley East in 1996, in boththe latter of which the Labour vote share actually went down and the former of which it only went very slightly up.

[mattbewilson]

Feb 10, 2023 20:27:57 GMT YL said:

Feb 10, 2023 20:01:48 GMT jakegb said:

Not a great result for the Tories - no denying.
And indeed only 1 seat out of 650 with local factors.

BUT this was no Wirral South or Dudley West in the 1990s (both with significantly higher swings).
They're in trouble - that is true - but no Blair landslide is on the doorstep. More 1974, perhaps?

It also wasn't Hemsworth or Barnsley East in 1996, in both of which the Labour vote share actually went down.

labour vote went up in Hemsworth

[YL]

Feb 10, 2023 20:37:06 GMT mattbewilson said:

Feb 10, 2023 20:27:57 GMT YL said:

It also wasn't Hemsworth or Barnsley East in 1996, in both of which the Labour vote share actually went down.

labour vote went up in Hemsworth

Sorry, yes; I've corrected that.

(But still, it didn't go up by very much.)

[Deleted]

And again: both swing and Labour's vote share changes were virtually identical to the national average in 2017 and significantly below the national average in 2019 (and the Tories actually lost vote share). Firstly this suggests that there was much less room for a large Con --> Lab swing to start with; secondly if areas that swung harder away from Labour are also swinging harder towards Labour now, on top of the already monstrous national swing indicated by polling, in terms of voter distribution and the actual result of a GE, that is  a very very bad sign for the Conservative

[manchesterman]

I suspect if we went with the old "if there was an election tomorrow" scenario, the actual result would probably be somewhere between your 2 excellent maps.

Probably something not unlike a reversal of the Con-Lab positions from 2019. E,g Lab 350ish, Tories 200-ish and a few extra LD seats.

[batman]

Let's be honest, a Labour vote of 70% in such a socially polarised seat as West Lancs was never on the cards. Representing this as a bad result for Labour, well whatever floats your boat, but when Labour is already starting with well over half the vote there is clearly a limit in such a seat as to how much that vote will further increase. It isn't a point-blank terrible result for the Tories, but it isn't great. It stands to reason, and indeed psephological science, that the Tories will do worst in elections in seats they hold, not in seats where they are already a long way behind.

[manchesterman]

Feb 10, 2023 19:20:47 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Feb 10, 2023 17:51:03 GMT neilm said:

This must rate as one of the most boring by elections of recent times, along with Airdrie and Sleaford.

That would make for an interesting constituency.

non-contiguous boundary klaxon!!

[johnloony]

The result was much better than I expected, and a much smaller swing (only 10.5%) than most of our predictions, and much smaller than other recent parliamentary by-elections.

[johnloony]

Feb 10, 2023 17:51:03 GMT neilm said:

This must rate as one of the most boring by elections of recent times, along with Airdrie and Sleaford.

Airdrie & Shotts was exciting because the Lib Dem candidate got only 220 votes (1.0%), and Sleaford & North Hykeham was exciting because the candidate in 5th place had an unusually high 8.8% of the votes.

[finsobruce]

Feb 10, 2023 20:43:02 GMT YL said:

Feb 10, 2023 20:37:06 GMT mattbewilson said:

labour vote went up in Hemsworth

Sorry, yes; I've corrected that.

(But still, it didn't go up by very much.)

I was at that by election and it was certainly more interesting than most. 

[carlton43]

Feb 10, 2023 17:51:03 GMT neilm said:

This must rate as one of the most boring by elections of recent times, along with Airdrie and Sleaford.

I missed Aidrie & Sleaford.   Enormous constituency.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Feb 10, 2023 2:09:53 GMT manchesterman said:

This is actually a pretty good result for the Tories in the round. To get 5700 people to vote for this current government, with all it is inflicting on the country right now, on a cold February day in a strong Labour seat is pretty impressive. Sounds like the candidate was good or campaign was well organised. A -10% swing in the current climate is something the Tory party nationally can only dream of!

Most of the villages in the seat are solid Tory. They're full of that very rare breed, Scouse Tories, who don't like Liverpool.

[The Bishop]

Feb 10, 2023 20:01:48 GMT jakegb said:

Not a great result for the Tories - no denying.
And indeed only 1 seat out of 650 with local factors.

BUT this was no Wirral South or Dudley West in the 1990s (both with significantly higher swings).
They're in trouble - that is true - but no Blair landslide is on the doorstep. More 1974, perhaps?

As had already been patiently explained, that's because its very much not the same sort of seat. Let's have a byelection in Tamworth and see what happens, perhaps

[andrewp]

Feb 10, 2023 20:48:28 GMT manchesterman said:

I suspect if we went with the old "if there was an election tomorrow" scenario, the actual result would probably be somewhere between your 2 excellent maps.

Probably something not unlike a reversal of the Con-Lab positions from 2019. E,g Lab 350ish, Tories 200-ish and a few extra LD seats.

I would agree. My gut from polls and position, which the recent trio of by elections in the North West haven’t done anything to change,  is that we are currently heading for something like Lab 360 Con 197 LD 25 SNP 45 Oth 23

[greenhert]

Feb 11, 2023 4:13:45 GMT Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells said:

Feb 10, 2023 2:09:53 GMT manchesterman said:

This is actually a pretty good result for the Tories in the round. To get 5700 people to vote for this current government, with all it is inflicting on the country right now, on a cold February day in a strong Labour seat is pretty impressive. Sounds like the candidate was good or campaign was well organised. A -10% swing in the current climate is something the Tory party nationally can only dream of!

Most of the villages in the seat are solid Tory. They're full of that very rare breed, Scouse Tories, who don't like Liverpool.

By contrast, Skelmersdale is almost as rock-solidly Labour as most of Knowsley. Ormskirk is the only part of this constituency that can be considered marginal.