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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 20, 2022 19:16:54 GMT
Skelmersdale usually votes about 80% Labour but the turnout there will be woeful I'd imagine. I remember reading the Almanac many years ago and the Aughton Park area was ranked as one of the most Tory areas in the whole country back then - think it's certainly less so now. Very much so - in the most recent local elections (2022), Aughton Park very narrowly elected a Labour councillor, by a margin of 596 to 577. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 20, 2022 20:06:23 GMT
My sister lives in this constituency and she and her other half are very interested in politics. I will be visiting them a bit more during the campaign.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 20, 2022 21:20:06 GMT
Given how polarised West Lancashire DC is at a local level, I will be surprised if this by-election delivers a swing of greater than 5%.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Sept 20, 2022 23:06:51 GMT
I know I’m known for overplaying the ‘personal vote’ effect on here, but in light of ‘Get Brexit Done’ and what happened in nearby Leigh, etc, Cooper’s 2019 result is very creditable indeed for a semi-rural Leave area, with only a small swing and a larger majority than 2010. Is there a strong ‘Liverpool effect’ here whereby even affluent voters lean Labour, masking any Brexit churn (a la Wirral?), or is Skem really that safe that even Brexit didn’t shift them across? I’d also assume Edge Hill and it’s student (teachers) may also have an effect?
I think in any case given the uncontroversial circumstances around her resignation, the turnout will be extremely low, even for a traditionally high turnout constituency (72% in 2019 is pretty good and must be one of the best turnouts for a Labour-held seat given how many are inner-city and low turnout?)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 20, 2022 23:18:24 GMT
I know I’m known for overplaying the ‘personal vote’ effect on here, but in light of ‘Get Brexit Done’ and what happened in nearby Leigh, etc, Cooper’s 2019 result is very creditable indeed for a semi-rural Leave area, with only a small swing and a larger majority than 2010. Is there a strong ‘Liverpool effect’ here whereby even affluent voters lean Labour, masking any Brexit churn (a la Wirral?), or is Skem really that safe that even Brexit didn’t shift them across? I’d also assume Edge Hill and it’s student (teachers) may also have an effect? I think in any case given the uncontroversial circumstances around her resignation, the turnout will be extremely low, even for a traditionally high turnout constituency (72% in 2019 is pretty good and must be one of the best turnouts for a Labour-held seat given how many are inner-city and low turnout?) Skems is that safe, I feel. In 2021, which was a good election for Conservatives, their ward results in Skems were: 5%, 11%, 9%, 11%, 13% and 17%, while the same ward in 2016 (same seats up) were 12%, 11%, 7%, 9%, 10% and 10%. For the turnout question, it's not in the top 30 and there is 4 Labour seats in it (Sheffield Hallam, Wirral West, Putney and Cardiff North). |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 21, 2022 0:55:15 GMT
Just looked at the figures from the last election and perhaps one of the most surprising things is that the turnout was as high as 72% (and 74% in 2017) when you consider it includes a probably low turnout town like Skelmersdale. Skem maybe Skem, but it's not Kirkby which really is diabolical turnout. All in all, it's similar to Wirral West (though not quite as wealthy overall) with a rather deprived minority part of it completely swamped by middle and upper income communities. |
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Post by galloglass on Sept 21, 2022 7:55:24 GMT
I think people are making a mistake when they talk of Skelmersdale as one amorphous lump, its not, and the various parts of the town are quite varied with a varied history and population makeup, especially the old town.
In a Parliamentary election Skelmsersdale used to turn out very well indeed and I don't think thats changed in recent years.
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 21, 2022 7:56:23 GMT
Merseyside effect, cf. Sefton Central, Wirral South & West
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Post by galloglass on Sept 21, 2022 8:03:20 GMT
Merseyside effect, cf. Sefton Central, Wirral South & West The seat moved to the Lab column in 1992 so well before these others, although the merseyside effect is now begining to show in places like Aughton. |
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 21, 2022 9:05:56 GMT
Merseyside effect, cf. Sefton Central, Wirral South & West The seat moved to the Lab column in 1992 so well before these others, although the merseyside effect is now begining to show in places like Aughton. I guess the Tories were built out of Ormskirk/West Lancs? |
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Post by philvn on Sept 21, 2022 10:27:52 GMT
My sister lives in this constituency and she and her other half are very interested in politics. I will be visiting them a bit more during the campaign. Where approximately? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 21, 2022 10:49:36 GMT
My sister lives in this constituency and she and her other half are very interested in politics. I will be visiting them a bit more during the campaign. Where approximately? Up Holland. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2022 12:13:37 GMT
Skelmersdale usually votes about 80% Labour but the turnout there will be woeful I'd imagine. I remember reading the Almanac many years ago and the Aughton Park area was ranked as one of the most Tory areas in the whole country back then - think it's certainly less so now. I Googled Aughton Park and the first link was a care home. Lol. This constituency also contains Argleton (well, sort of) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 13:33:15 GMT
Ormskirk - from "Ormres kirkja" - is a constituency name with some historical hot-spots along its history. When carved out of South West Lancashire in the 1880s, Ormskirk covered a vast swathe of the county, encompassing much of what has long since been incorporated into Metropolitan Boroughs: Aintree, Formby, Maghull, Prescot amongst them. This was truly "western Lancashire", and with it acres of market towns and the communities which relied upon them. Two significant political figures represented Ormskirk during their very different career trajectories: Harold Wilson moved to Huyton along the way to becoming Prime Minister; and Robert Kilroy-Silk made some choices which we can't go into right now. The re-organised local council for this area was given quite the boring name: West Lancashire. It covers the flat, marshy, farming and soft-industrial land between Chorley and Southport, with the two most prominent towns both in the south. Ormskirk remains the administrative centre while nearby Skelmersdale - from Skjaldmarr dalr or dæl - proves just how much of a tombola/crap shoot experiment the New Towns programme turned out to be. Yes, the motorways around here to point to "Skem", as the nickname is ubiquitous; and no, it still has no traffic lights. Other journeys through Nordic placenames include Burscough from Burhskógr, Tarleton, one of the most northernly marsh towns, and currently in the South Ribble constituency, almost certainly does not come from "Jarle's Town", a Viking settlement lost to the mists of time, but this appears to have stuck and is taught at school so what can you do? When Ormskirk became West Lancashire in 1983 it lost acreage to Merseyside. Ken Hind, another name whose life might be best described in other parts of the forum, won handsomely, only to see his majority slashed and ultimately overturned by Labour in 1992, This warning shot by Labour into seats which had, on paper, resilient Conservative voting traditions, was heard in scores of constituencies across the UK in an otherwise 'false dawn' election. Labour held on, and holds on to this day, with West Lancashire proving less prone to bellwether switches than Chorley, or South Ribble, both neighbouring constituencies steeped in the tradition of putting on competitive shows each election. Although simplistic to say so, the presence of "Skem" is a good indicator as to why Labour are so much stronger here than would otherwise be the case: the 'red wall' from Liverpool up through the Met Boroughs and into Lancashire has to stop somewhere, and that place is currently on a roughly straight line from Southport Pier to Rivington Pike. It is not, quite yet at least, the Leeds/Liverpool Canal. At council level, the two main fighters are red or blue. Labour has its strength in Skem, Up Holland, and in good days, Burscough and its environs. The villages to the north are staunchly Conservative and often see very little competitive elections in real terms. Aughton and Aughton Park, to the south-west of Ormskirk "proper" is true blue territory, religiously Conservative. At the 2017 County Council elections, Labour won the Ormskirk division and the three divisions covering Skelmersdale: they no other seats in W. Lancs. It may be worth noting how house prices, at the time of writing, average between £74-80k in Skem, and can be four times that in Aughton. There is a sizeable younger vote here, around a third of the population is under 30, in part because of Edge Lane University. Anecdotally speaking, the local accent has not yet been fully Scoused but across the south and central parts of the borough in particular, the Liverpool twang is beating the Lancashire vowels. In the battle of the ballot boxes, however, things might be more easily understood. If the local Tories couldn't shift this territory in the bizarre-o circumstances of a December held, Brexit-fuelled election, they might struggle to take it ever again. |
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 21, 2022 13:41:21 GMT
Cheap as chips. It would be quite easy to become a BTL landlord in Skelmersdale, and with a big portfolio too.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 21, 2022 13:46:05 GMT
Hind had some interesting cases as a defence barrister. He turned up a few years ago as a safeguarding reviewer at the FA.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 21, 2022 14:12:56 GMT
Cheap as chips. It would be quite easy to become a BTL landlord in Skelmersdale, and with a big portfolio too. A lot of trouble most likely, as is anywhere which gives an above average return. I wouldn't want to have a lot of buy to let's. |
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Post by samdwebber on Sept 21, 2022 14:54:19 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 21, 2022 16:42:49 GMT
Odd thing to do. Surely having a conference to get as many activists as possible within easy range would be what you want. IIRC, the SNP used to arrange spontaneous "conferences" in the vicinity of by-elections. |
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Post by southernliberal on Sept 21, 2022 16:45:30 GMT
Odd thing to do. Surely having a conference to get as many activists as possible within easy range would be what you want. IIRC, the SNP used to arrange spontaneous "conferences" in the vicinity of by-elections. This is a North West regional conference and it's taking place over an hour away from West Lancashire so not sure it'd ne helpful. Saying that though, given how safe this seat is, seems odd they are cancelling a conference for what should be a safe hold even with losing this weekend of campaigning. |
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