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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2023 14:47:14 GMT
On the Mid/NE Bedfordshire debate, i'd come down firmly on the side of Mid Beds as being the most boring, samey and anonymous. NE Beds has far more electoral variety, especially along the A1 corridor. Biggleswade is a serious town which Labour can win in a good year and Sandy can be politically interesting and some of the smaller communities like Arlesley and Stotfold are mixed too. Against which you have an almost monolithic Conservative strength in the rural Bedford borough wards. Mid Bedfordshire has far less variety and the largest town is Flitwick for goodness sake - the largest proper town is Ampthill. Notwithstanding some historic Lib Dem support there and in some of the wards bordering Luton, it is all very samey when it comes to distribution of party support. I come at this from the point of view of someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time working out notional ward results for various constituencies and there are always some constituencies that are a chore to do because of the lack of variety. That is why Denton & Reddish resonated so strongly with me and Mid Beds is a good equivalent from the point of view of a safe, but not monolithic, Conservative seat Though it is a wonder quite how a place like Flitwick can exist in that part of Bedfordshire. The eastern half in particular |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 17, 2023 15:13:56 GMT
On the Mid/NE Bedfordshire debate, i'd come down firmly on the side of Mid Beds as being the most boring, samey and anonymous. NE Beds has far more electoral variety, especially along the A1 corridor. Biggleswade is a serious town which Labour can win in a good year and Sandy can be politically interesting and some of the smaller communities like Arlesley and Stotfold are mixed too. Against which you have an almost monolithic Conservative strength in the rural Bedford borough wards. Mid Bedfordshire has far less variety and the largest town is Flitwick for goodness sake - the largest proper town is Ampthill. Notwithstanding some historic Lib Dem support there and in some of the wards bordering Luton, it is all very samey when it comes to distribution of party support. I come at this from the point of view of someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time working out notional ward results for various constituencies and there are always some constituencies that are a chore to do because of the lack of variety. That is why Denton & Reddish resonated so strongly with me and Mid Beds is a good equivalent from the point of view of a safe, but not monolithic, Conservative seat Though it is a wonder quite how a place like Flitwick can exist in that part of Bedfordshire. The eastern half in particular Why do you say that?
*genuine question* as the kids say.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 17, 2023 15:36:55 GMT
Though it is a wonder quite how a place like Flitwick can exist in that part of Bedfordshire. The eastern half in particular Why do you say that?
*genuine question* as the kids say.
Never been to Flitwick. What's so shocking about it? |
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Post by batman on Jan 17, 2023 16:24:01 GMT
I remember it as a mostly newish-build, very boring & mostly fairly middle-class place. Our bass player years ago lived there
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 17, 2023 16:37:55 GMT
My ex BiL lived there for a while when he worked at the Agricultural Research Institute. I visited a couple of times and can’t say I found it very inspiring
(edit - a quick google suggests that either I have lost my marbles or the ARI has gone)
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Jan 17, 2023 16:55:55 GMT
Dull constituencies offers: Mid Norfolk and North East Hampshire.
I have a reasonable grasp on what's in NE Hampshire but that's only because I come from the county. It's dully, solidly Tory (though Hart district council has the occasional flurry of interest). Mid Norfolk has a flat landscape with nondescript towns (I struggle to remember which ones are included), a reasonable but unexciting MP, no electoral interest or variety as it's all safe Con, and no history as it was cobbled together for the 2010 boundary changes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2023 17:54:51 GMT
The Eastern half of the town is quite a lot more grim than you'd expect. When I lived my parents refused to take me and my sister to the park at weekends before the broken glass and needles had been cleared away (obviously I was only told this much later). A 15 year old was stabbed to death near my house shortly before we moved.
Objectively you can find worse places in the rest of the country but it is very out of place in rural Bedfordshire commuter belt
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 17, 2023 17:56:38 GMT
In mitigation for Mid Norfolk, Wymondham always looks like an attractive market town although I don't know it that well.
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Post by johnloony on Jan 17, 2023 19:04:11 GMT
In mitigation for Mid Norfolk, Wymondham always looks like an attractive market town although I don't know it that well. Wymondham (where my mother now lives) reminds me of Bridgnorth (where my sister used to live). Populations 14k and 11k respectively. Twee medium-sized market towns with old-fashioned architecture and landmarks (the abbey and the castle respectively). |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 17, 2023 22:42:17 GMT
In mitigation for Mid Norfolk, Wymondham always looks like an attractive market town although I don't know it that well. Wymondham (where my mother now lives) reminds me of Bridgnorth (where my sister used to live). Populations 14k and 11k respectively. Twee medium-sized market towns with old-fashioned architecture and landmarks (the abbey and the castle respectively). Ah, but does it have a cliff railway? |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 18, 2023 0:25:31 GMT
Wymondham (where my mother now lives) reminds me of Bridgnorth (where my sister used to live). Populations 14k and 11k respectively. Twee medium-sized market towns with old-fashioned architecture and landmarks (the abbey and the castle respectively). Ah, but does it have a cliff railway? No. Being flat and cliffy is the big difference between Wymondham and Bridgnorth (respectively). |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 18, 2023 10:03:18 GMT
Dull constituencies offers: Mid Norfolk and North East Hampshire. I have a reasonable grasp on what's in NE Hampshire but that's only because I come from the county. It's dully, solidly Tory (though Hart district council has the occasional flurry of interest). Mid Norfolk has a flat landscape with nondescript towns (I struggle to remember which ones are included), a reasonable but unexciting MP, no electoral interest or variety as it's all safe Con, and no history as it was cobbled together for the 2010 boundary changes. NE Hampshire is actually interesting because its much more solidly Tory than it should be. It should in marginal LD/Con territory al la Esher, Winchester, Guildford. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 18, 2023 10:45:32 GMT
Wymondham (where my mother now lives) reminds me of Bridgnorth (where my sister used to live). Populations 14k and 11k respectively. Twee medium-sized market towns with old-fashioned architecture and landmarks (the abbey and the castle respectively). Ah, but does it have a cliff railway? No, but it does have a heritage railway. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 19, 2023 14:20:25 GMT
Dull constituencies offers: Mid Norfolk and North East Hampshire. I have a reasonable grasp on what's in NE Hampshire but that's only because I come from the county. It's dully, solidly Tory (though Hart district council has the occasional flurry of interest). Mid Norfolk has a flat landscape with nondescript towns (I struggle to remember which ones are included), a reasonable but unexciting MP, no electoral interest or variety as it's all safe Con, and no history as it was cobbled together for the 2010 boundary changes. NE Hampshire is actually interesting because its much more solidly Tory than it should be. It should in marginal LD/Con territory al la Esher, Winchester, Guildford. An interesting assessment, especially since it was one of *the* very safest Tory seats back in 1997. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 19, 2023 14:28:03 GMT
NE Hampshire is actually interesting because its much more solidly Tory than it should be. It should in marginal LD/Con territory al la Esher, Winchester, Guildford. An interesting assessment, especially since it was one of *the* very safest Tory seats back in 1997. Tell you much how things have changed since they are now Tory seats much safer than NE Hampshire that were Labour gains in 1997 and held by Labour though the Blair years |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 19, 2023 14:36:22 GMT
An interesting assessment, especially since it was one of *the* very safest Tory seats back in 1997. Tell you much how things have changed since they are now Tory seats much safer than NE Hampshire that were Labour gains in 1997 and held by Labour though the Blair years At the moment. While I don't expect Labour to regain them, there is scope for some pretty big unwind against the Conservatives in places like Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire at the next General Election. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2023 16:37:06 GMT
Tell you much how things have changed since they are now Tory seats much safer than NE Hampshire that were Labour gains in 1997 and held by Labour though the Blair years At the moment. While I don't expect Labour to regain them, there is scope for some pretty big unwind against the Conservatives in places like Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire at the next General Election. Given a landslide they still might well be lost , but the opposite effect of that pretty big unwind might mean places like Guildford and Wokingham swing relatively less against the Conservatives and might be tougher targets for the LDs than they appear |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 19, 2023 17:14:07 GMT
At the moment. While I don't expect Labour to regain them, there is scope for some pretty big unwind against the Conservatives in places like Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire at the next General Election. Given a landslide they still might well be lost , but the opposite effect of that pretty big unwind might mean places like Guildford and Wokingham swing relatively less against the Conservatives and might be tougher targets for the LDs than they appear You mean because the Labour vote might go up in those places, stymying the Lib Dems? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2023 17:45:56 GMT
Given a landslide they still might well be lost , but the opposite effect of that pretty big unwind might mean places like Guildford and Wokingham swing relatively less against the Conservatives and might be tougher targets for the LDs than they appear You mean because the Labour vote might go up in those places, stymying the Lib Dems? Yes, plus a small element of Sunak being preferable to Johnson in some Con voters minds in those places and a small element of it not being a Brexit election. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 19, 2023 17:48:38 GMT
You mean because the Labour vote might go up in those places, stymying the Lib Dems? Yes, plus a small element of Sunak being preferable to Johnson in some Con voters minds in those places and a small element of it not being a Brexit election. It depends where the 'new' Labour votes come from. It's surely possible that quite a few will have voted Tory in the previous election and may actually therefore help the Lib Dems get over the line. |
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