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Post by Richard Cromwell on Sept 28, 2022 14:32:39 GMT
Facit and Shawforth, RossendaleMarket Harborough - Logan, HarboroughLDEM | 49% | CON | 25% | LAB | 14% | IND | 12% |
Ynysybwl, Rhondda Cynon TafLAB | 58% | CON | 27% | Plaid Cymru | 8% | GRN | 6% | Gwlad | 1% |
Helmshore, RossendaleLAB | 34% | CON | 31% | IND | 17% | LDEM | 11% | GRN | 7% |
Edwinstowe & Clipstone, Newark and SherwoodHinksey Park, OxfordLAB | 59% | GRN | 14% | IND | 13% | LDEM | 12% | CON | 2% | TUSC | 0% |
Grappenhall, WarringtonKintyre and the Islands, Argyll and ButeLDEM | 34% | Win On Transfers | SNP | 24% | | CON | 16% | | IND | 14% | | GRN | 8% | | LAB | 4% | |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 28, 2022 19:19:10 GMT
Argyll & Bute UA, Kintyre & The Islands (1st preferences): SNP 40, Independent (Redman) 23, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservative 13, Green 5, Labour 3. SNP gain from Independent at stage 5. Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 30, Labour 9, Independent (Lambert) 7. Newark & Sherwood DC, Edwinstowe & Clipstone: Labour 58, Conservative 42. Labour gain from Conservative. Oxford BC, Hinksey Park: Labour 55, Green 22, Independent (Woodin) 11, Conservative 7, Liberal Democrats 5. Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynysybwl: Plaid Cymru 53, Labour 32, Gwlad 7, Conservative 5, Green 3. Rossendale DC, Facit & Shawforth: Labour 44, Conservative 37, Independent (Olaolu) 11, Green 8. Labour gain from Conservative. Rossendale DC, Helmshore: Labour 45, Conservative 34, Independent (Stansfield) 9, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 6. Labour gain from Conservative. Warrington UA, Grappenhall: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 35, Labour 9, Green 6.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 28, 2022 20:23:09 GMT
Argyll & Bute: SNP 37.0; Redman 33.6; LD 13.2; Con 7.6; Grn 4.7; Lab 3.9 (Redman to win on transfers) Harborough: LD 44.0; Con 32.9; Lambert 12.3; Lab 10.8 Newark & Sherwood: Lab 56.2; Con 43.8 Oxford: Lab 52.1; Grn 20.1; Glass Woodin 14.4; LD 8.8; Con 3.2; TUSC 1.4 Rhondda Cynon Taf: PC 50.9; Lab 33.1; Gwlad 7.0; Con 4.7; Grn 4.3 Rossendale, F&S: Lab34.1; Con 30.1; Olaolu 27.9; Grn 7.9 Rossendale, H: Con 40.5; Lab 39.7; Grn 8.5; Stansfield 6.8; LD 4.5 Warrington: LD 52.0; Con 28.1; Lab 11.8; Grn 8.1
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 28, 2022 21:43:54 GMT
Argyll and Bute, Kintyre and the Islands. SNP 39. Ld 26, Redman 16, Con 12: Green 4, Lab 3. SNP win Harborough. Market Harborough Logan. LD 52, Con 27, Ind 12, Lab 9 Newark and Sherwood. Edwin Stowe and Clipstone. Lab 56, Con 44. Oxford. Hinksey Park. Lab 50, Green 20, Glass Woodin 13, LD 9, Con 5, TUSC 3 Rhondda Cynon Taf, Ynysybwl. PC 49, Lab 35, Gwlad 8, Con 4, Green 4 Rossendale. Facit and Shawforth. Ind 38, Lab 31, Con 26, Green 5 Rossendale, Helmshore, Lab 41, Con 39, Green 10, Stansfield 5, LD 5 Warrington. Grappenhall. LD 53, Con 28, Lab 11: Green 8
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 28, 2022 22:21:48 GMT
Argyll and Bute, Kintyre and the Islands: SNP 38, LD 21, Redman 21, Con 11, Green 4, Lab 5. SNP win
Harborough, Market Harborough Logan: LD 55, Con 25, Ind 9, Lab 11
Newark and Sherwood: Edwinstowe and Clipstone. Lab 52, Con 48
Oxford. Hinksey Park: Lab 55, Green 18, Glass Woodin 14, LD 7, Con 4, TUSC 2
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Ynysybwl: PC 51, Lab 36, Gwlad 5, Con 4, Green 4
Rossendale, Facit and Shawforth: Ind 30, Lab 33, Con 32, Green 5
Rossendale, Helmshore: Lab 43, Con 39, Green 11, Stansfield 4, LD 3
Warrington, Grappenhall: LD 58, Con 28, Lab 10, Green 4
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 28, 2022 23:27:39 GMT
Argyll & Bute, Kintyre & Islands: Con 10, Lab 3, LD 24, GP 4, SNP 37, Ind 22. SNP win. Harborough,Logan: Con 24, Lab 10, LD 56, Ind 10. Newark & Sherwood, Edwinstowe & Clipstone: Con 43, Lab 57. Oxford, Hinksey Park:Con 3,Lab 54, LD 7, GP 20, Ind 15, TUSC 1. Rhondda Cynon Taff: Con 3, Lab 35, GP 4, PC 50, Gwl 8. Rossendale, Facit & Shawforth: Con 26, Lab 33, GP 4, Ind 37. Rossendale, Helmshore: Con 37, Lab 44, LD 3, GP 10, Ind 6. Warrington, Grappenhall: Con 26, Lab 10, LD 59, GP 5.
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 29, 2022 1:18:11 GMT
Argyll and Bute, Kintyre and the Islands. SNP 38, LD 26, Redman 16, Con 11, Gn 5, Lab 4. SNP win Harborough. Market Harborough Logan. LD 50, Con 27, Ind 12, Lab 11 Newark and Sherwood. Edwin Stowe and Clipstone. Lab 54, Con 46. Oxford. Hinksey Park. Lab 54, Gn 24, Glass Woodin 9, LD 7, Con 5, TUSC 1 Rhondda Cynon Taf, Ynysybwl. PC 52, Lab 35, Gwlad 5, Con 4, Gn 4 Rossendale. Facit and Shawforth. Lab 38, Ind 32, Con 25, Gn 5 Rossendale, Helmshore, Lab 43, Con 37, Gn 11, LD 6, Stansfield 3 Warrington. Grappenhall. LD 55, Con 27, Lab 11, Gn 7
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 29, 2022 19:46:22 GMT
11 entries to close the month. All on time, but with greenhert picking up 2 faults for going over in Helmshore. Kintyre and the Islands, Argyll and Bute: 10 have SNP ahead on first preferences with 9 SNP gain from Independent after transfers, Tony Otim has Independent (Redman) win. Richard Cromwell Liberal Democrat lead on first preferences and ultimate winner. Logan, Harborough: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 11% (kevinf) to 40% (johnloony). Edwinstowe and Clipstone, Newark and Sherwood: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 4% (Robert Waller) to 30% (johnloony). Hinksey Park, Oxford: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (peterl) to 45% (Richard Cromwell). Ybysybwl, Rhondda Cynon Taf: 10 Plaid Cymru hold, majorities ranging from 4% (batman) to 30% (johnloony). Richard Cromwell Labour gain with majority of 31%. Facit and Shawforth, Rossendale: 5 Independent (Olaolu) gain from Conservative and 5 Labour gain, kevinf Conservative hold. Helmshore, Rossendale: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with batman and Tony Otim Conservative hold. Grappenhall, Warrington: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (batman and greenhert) to 43% (peterl and Richard Cromwell). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13OryZuHCi8i4R2im3am4Px9OqbOwHPqfSdWpoS4mPcY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 29, 2022 22:28:17 GMT
Ynysybwl, Rhondda Cynon TafLAB | 58% | CON | 27% | Plaid Cymru | 8% | GRN | 6% | Gwlad | 1% |
Hahahahaha I have been wondering if that was a misprint or editing error
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 22:48:21 GMT
I was going to say, the idea that the Tories would get 27% in a ward in that area was always pretty fanciful but I thought, it isn't usual to comment on other people's predictions that much.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 29, 2022 23:50:45 GMT
I was going to say, the idea that the Tories would get 27% in a ward in that area was always pretty fanciful but I thought, it isn't usual to comment on other people's predictions that much. It isn’t usual for other people’s predictions to be so hahahaesque
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Sept 30, 2022 8:59:50 GMT
All evidence, of course, that I avoid reading other predictions. It would have have saved me some embarrassment, in this case.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 30, 2022 10:34:27 GMT
All evidence, of course, that I avoid reading other predictions. It would have have saved me some embarrassment, in this case. Good for you, and when it comes off you gain the advantage from being different from the herd. I don't think I could take the risk- I am afraid that whilst I make a point of deciding my draft predictions early, I am prepared to revise them slightly just before posting them in the light of the latest information online, and that sometimes includes other people's predictions- if mine are way off line, I sometimes revisit my own predictions and check I still think my earlier thoughts were right. That has saved me embarassment once or twice, equally it has been been really annoying when I find I had been right all along and a late adjustment worsens my score.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 30, 2022 13:27:17 GMT
Looks like a devastatingly accurate performance from Tony Otim this week. Very well done indeed! With the numbers to come from Kintyre, the only question seems whether he has also climbed all the way up the ladder to win the month too.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 13:47:41 GMT
Looks like a devastatingly accurate performance from Tony Otim this week. Very well done indeed! With the numbers to come from Kintyre, the only question seems whether he has also climbed all the way up the ladder to win the month too. I think, and somebody will need to check this, but I have just fluked it this week, with rightleaning in second and andrewp in 3rd for the month, just ahead of Robert Waller in 4th.
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 13:48:36 GMT
Looks like a devastatingly accurate performance from Tony Otim this week. Very well done indeed! With the numbers to come from Kintyre, the only question seems whether he has also climbed all the way up the ladder to win the month too. well done Tony, but in the light of current opinion polls, and the fact I'm going on holiday, I absolutely refuse to be sad about my poor performance
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 13:52:41 GMT
Looks like a devastatingly accurate performance from Tony Otim this week. Very well done indeed! With the numbers to come from Kintyre, the only question seems whether he has also climbed all the way up the ladder to win the month too. well done Tony, but in the light of current opinion polls, and the fact I'm going on holiday, I absolutely refuse to be sad about my poor performance Enjoy the holiday!
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 30, 2022 14:02:18 GMT
Looks like a devastatingly accurate performance from Tony Otim this week. Very well done indeed! With the numbers to come from Kintyre, the only question seems whether he has also climbed all the way up the ladder to win the month too. I think, and somebody will need to check this, but I have just fluked it this week, with rightleaning in second and andrewp in 3rd for the month, just ahead of Robert Waller in 4th.I agree with this, except that it cannot have been a 'fluke'!
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 14:14:19 GMT
I think, and somebody will need to check this, but I have just fluked it this week, with rightleaning in second and andrewp in 3rd for the month, just ahead of Robert Waller in 4th. I agree with this, except that it cannot have been a 'fluke'! Well, it rather contrasts with my form for the rest of the month and coming from that far back certainly required a slice of luck, so...
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 30, 2022 14:34:23 GMT
On Kintyre and the Islands, I think I decided I had got it wrong just too late to change it. I was increasingly sure I had overegged the LibDem and the SNP, and underestimated the ex-Tory Indy. A case where I might have changed my mind just in time (Thursday 8.45?)had the herd been of the same view. Of course I should have been solely looking at the forecasts of the one person who had got it. Very well done, Tony.
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