Prediction Competition - September 2022

[batman]

COVENTRY, Sherbourne : Lab 38 C 34 Green 12 LD 8 Cov Cit 5 TUSC 3
GWYNEDD, Llanuwchllyn : PC 73 LD 27
STOKE-ON-TRENT, Bentilee & Ubberley : Lab 48 City Ind 35 C 17
WEALDEN, Maresfield : Green 51 C 49

[johnloony]

COVENTRY: Lab 40 Con 30 Grn 16 LD 9 CC 3 TUSC 2
GWYNEDD: PC 69 LD 31
STOKE-ON-TRENT UA: Con Lab 52 CI 31 Con 17
WEALDEN: Con 53 Green 47

[kevinf]

Coventry
Lab 43, Con 39, Green 10, CC 4, LD 3, Tusc 1
Gwynedd
PC 55, LD 45
Stoke
CityInd 45, Lab 40, Con 15
Wealden
Con 52, Green 48

[Tony Otim]

Coventry: Lab 41.7; Con 39.0; Grn 8.8; TUSC 4.6; LD 3.5; Cov Cit 2.4
Gwynedd: PC 70.2; LD 29.8
Stoke: Lab 46.0; City Ind 40.3; Con 13.7;
Wealden: Con 50.2; Grn 49.8

[Richard Cromwell]

Llanuwchllyn, Gwynedd

Plaid Cymru	54%
LDEM	46%

Bentilee and Ubberley, Stoke-on-Trent

LAB	50%
CON	26%
City Independents	24%

Maresfield, Wealden

GRN	51%
CON	49%

Sherbourne, Coventry

LAB	47%
CON	33%
GRN	9%
LDEM	6%
Coventry Citizens	4%
TUSC	1%

[greenhert]

Coventry MBC, Sherbourne: Labour 48.5, Conservative 33.5, Green 7, Liberal Democrats 5, Coventry Citizens 3.5, TUSC 2.5.
Gwynedd UA, Llanuwchllyn: Plaid Cymru 72, Liberal Democrats 28.
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Bentilee & Ubberley: Labour 43, City Independents 35, Conservative 22.
Wealden DC, Maresfield: Green 55, Conservative 45. Green gain from Conservative.

[andrewp]

Coventry, Sherbourne, Lab 41, Con 37, Green 11, LD 4, Cov Cit 4, TUSC 3
Gwynedd. Llanuwchllyn. PC 76, LD 24
Stoke on Trent. Bentilee and Ubberley. Lab 43, Cit Ind 40, Con 17
Wealden. Maresfield. Green 54, Con 46

[yellowperil]

Coventry, Sherbourne:Con 34, Lab 44, LD 4, GP 9, CC 6, TUSC 3.
Gwynedd, LLanuwchllyn: LD 30, PC 70.
Stoke on Trent, Bentilee & Ubberley: Con 17, Lab 53, C Ind 30.
Wealden, Maresfield: Con 54, GP 46.

[Robert Waller]

Coventry, Sherbourne: Lab 40, Con 39, Green 9, LD 5, Cov Cit 3, TUSC 4

Gwynedd, Llanuwchllyn: PC 80, LD 20

Stoke on Trent, Bentilee and Ubberley: Lab 36, Cit Ind 34, Con 30

Wealden, Maresfield: Green 45, Con 55

[rightleaning]

Coventry, Sherbourne, Lab 42, Con 37, Gn 10, LD 6, Cov Cit 3, TUSC 2
Gwynedd. Llanuwchllyn. PC 72, LD 28
Stoke on Trent. Bentilee and Ubberley. Lab 42, CInd 37, Con 21
Wealden. Maresfield. Con 55, Gn 45,

[robbienicoll]

11 full entries and one partial this week, with johnloony returning. All on time and correct.

Sherbourne, Coventry: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (Robert Waller) to 15% (greenhert).

Llanuwchllyn, Gwynedd: 100% Plaid Cymru hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (Richard Cromwell) to 60% (Robert Waller).

Bentilee and Ubberley, Stoke-on-Trent: 10 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 24% (Richard Cromwell). Kevinf City Independents gain with majority of 5% and rockefeller Conservative gain with majority of 0.1%.

Maresfield, Wealden: 6 Conservative hold, with andrewp, batman, greenhert, peterl and Richard Cromwell Green gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_XwcyPICLxsGBcveX3tOLhkS3_nsDVIhUPpOr44ewSM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[andrewp]

If anyone had predicted 100/0 in Gwynedd they would have ‘won’ that prediction easily😀

[Robert Waller]

Awaiting the official adding of the Coventry result as I write, but I think andrewp has won the week with batman in second place.
Well done - a difficult set of predictions.

[robbienicoll]

Sept 22, 2022 23:33:51 GMT Robert Waller said:

Awaiting the official adding of the Coventry result as I write, but I think andrewp has won the week with batman in second place.
Well done - a difficult set of predictions.

This is indeed the case, setting up for a good finale with next week's bumper set. Reminder to predict the top vote in the double election.

[yellowperil]

Sept 23, 2022 8:15:27 GMT robbienicoll said:

Sept 22, 2022 23:33:51 GMT Robert Waller said:

Awaiting the official adding of the Coventry result as I write, but I think andrewp has won the week with batman in second place.
Well done - a difficult set of predictions.

This is indeed the case, setting up for a good finale with next week's bumper set. Reminder to predict the top vote in the double election.

Well done to andrewp and batman - for a moment there when we got the Stoke result I had hoped it was going to be my night - but after the other 3 results emphatically not! Clearly it doesn't help to visit the ward in person, quite the reverse.

[johnloony]

Argyll & Bute: SNP 35 Ind 30 LD 20 Con 10 Lab 3 Grn 2
Harborough: LD 60 Con 20 Ind 10 Lab 10
Newark & Sherwood: Lab 65 Con 35
Oxford: Lab 50 Green 25 LD 13 Con 7 Ind 4 TUSC 1
Rhondda: PC 60 Lab 30 Con 4 Green 3 Gwlad 3
Rossendale F&Sh: Ind 34 Lab 33 Con 26 Grn 7
Rossendale H: Lab 40 Con 39 Grn 10 LD 6 Ind 5
Warrington: LD 60 Con 25 Lab 10 Green 5

[peterl]

Argyll & Bute: SNP 33 Ind 30 LD 22 Con 8 Lab 4 Grn 3
Harborough: LD 56 Con 22 Ind 14 Lab 8
Newark & Sherwood: Lab 61 Con 39
Oxford: Lab 47 Green 28 LD 15 Con 5 Ind 3 TUSC 2
Rhondda: PC 54 Lab 34 Green 5 Gwlad 4 Con 3
Rossendale F&S: Ind 33 Con 31 Lab 24 Grn 12
Rossendale H: Lab 43 Con 38 Grn 11 LD 5 Ind 3
Warrington: LD 62 Con 19 Lab 12 Green 7

[kevinf]

Argyll & Bute
SNP36, Ind 30, LD 15, Con 8, Lab 6, Green 5
Yarborough
LD 45, Con 34, Ind 11, Lab 10
Newark
Lab 55, Con 45
Oxford
Lab 45, Green 22, LD 12, Ind 10, Con 9, Tusc 2
Rhondda
PC 48, Lab 35, Green 7, Con 6, Gwlad 4
Rossendale F and S
Con 33, Lab 32, Ind 27, Green 8
Rossendale Helmshaw
Lab 32, Con 31, Ind 20, LD 9, Green 8
Warrington
LD 53, Con 35, Lab 7, Green 5

[batman]

ARGYLL & BUTE, Kintyre & the Islands : SNP 30 Ind 23 LD 20 C 11 Lab 9 Green 7. SNP elected

HARBOROUGH, Logan : LD 46 C 28 Ind 14 Lab 12

NEWARK & SHERWOOD, Edwinstowe & Clipstone : Lab 57 C 43

OXFORD, Hinksey Park : Lab 40 Green 19 Ind 17 LD 12 C 9 TUSC 3

RHONDDA, Ynysybwl: PC 42 Lab 38 Gwlad 10 Green 6 C 4

ROSSENDALE, Facit & Shawforth : Lab 41 C 38 Ind 15 Green 6

ROSSENDALE, Helmshore : C 34 Lab 31 Ind 18 Green 9 LD 8

WARRINGTON, Grappenhall (highest candidates) : LD 45 C 30 Lab 17 Green 8

[Tony Otim]

A reminder to those who've posted so far this week that for Scottish contests you also have to indicate a prediction for who will win on transfers or it will be assumed you're predicting victory for the 1st preference leader.