Prediction Competition - September 2022

[batman]

it's the return of Roger Irrelevant

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to kick off the month, with iainbhx off on holiday and Smartie returning. All on time, but with Smartie receiving 1 fault for going over in Worcestershire.

Headless Cross and Oakenshaw, Redditch: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, Richard Cromwell and Robert Waller Conservative hold.

Arrow Valley West, Worcestershire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 1% (kevinf) to 20% (andrewp).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T6-3r1ISn84ynLex3sAmRm1F0VGgKJFYDwSOELdrqbs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Best from yellowperil and rightleaning today, I think. Well done!

[johnloony]

I predict

Arun: Grn 48 Con 28 Lab 24
Cannock Chase: Lab 36 Con 30 CCI 26 Ind 8
Hartlepool: Lab 44 Ind 30 Con 23 LD 3
Lancaster: Grn 33 Con 29 Lab 28 LD 10
WSussex: Con 53 IndP 29 Lab 15 IndW 3

[Richard Cromwell]

Hednesford North, Cannock Chase

LAB	40%
CON	28%
Chase Community Independents	29%
IND	3%

Barnham, Arun

GRN	47%
CON	34%
LAB	30%

Felpham, West Sussex

CON	47%
Richard Parker	26%
LAB	21%
Jaine Wild	6%

Foggy Furze, Hartlepool

LAB	45%
IND	22%
CON	17%
LDEM	16%

Warton, Lancaster

CON	39%
GRN	35%
LAB	23%
LDEM	3%

[kevinf]

Arun
Green 44, Con 41, Lab 15
Cannock Chase
Lab 38, CCI 29, Con 28, Ind 5
Hartlepool
Lab 51, Con 38, Ind 6, LD 5
Lancaster
Green 35, Con 32, LD 17, Lab 16
West Sussex
Con 45, Ind Parker 30, Lab 20, Ind Wild 5

[peterl]

Arun Green 48, Con 39, Lab 13
Cannock Chase Lab 41, CCI 31, Con 22, Ind 6
Hartlepool Lab 48, Con 38, Ind 10, LD 4
Lancaster Green 38, Con 33, LD 15, Lab 14
West Sussex Con 48, Ind Parker 25, Lab 22, Ind Wild 5

[Tony Otim]

Arun: Grn 48.6; Con 43.6; Lab 7.8
Cannock Chase: Lab 37.0; CCI 30.9; Con 27.4
Hartlepool: Lab 53.4; Con 28.2; Stallard 11.1; LD 7.3
Lancaster: Grn 38.6; Con 34.8; Lab 14.7; LD 11.9
West Sussex: Con 44.9; Parker 34.5; Lab 12.7; Wild 7.9

[yellowperil]

Sept 7, 2022 9:43:09 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Hednesford North, Cannock Chase

LAB	40%
CON	28%
Chase Community Independents	29%
IND	3%

Barnham, Arun

GRN	47%
CON	34%
LAB	30%

Felpham, West Sussex

CON	47%
Richard Parker	26%
LAB	21%
Jaine Wild	6%

Foggy Furze, Hartlepool

LAB	45%
IND	22%
CON	17%
LDEM	16%

Warton, Lancaster

CON	39%
GRN	35%
LAB	23%
LDEM	3%

Your entry for Barnham appears to be Nelson?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sept 7, 2022 12:29:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Sept 7, 2022 9:43:09 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Hednesford North, Cannock Chase

LAB	40%
CON	28%
Chase Community Independents	29%
IND	3%

Barnham, Arun

GRN	47%
CON	34%
LAB	30%

Felpham, West Sussex

CON	47%
Richard Parker	26%
LAB	21%
Jaine Wild	6%

Foggy Furze, Hartlepool

LAB	45%
IND	22%
CON	17%
LDEM	16%

Warton, Lancaster

CON	39%
GRN	35%
LAB	23%
LDEM	3%

Your entry for Barnham appears to be Nelson?

Calling Richard Cromwell

[batman]

ARUN, Barnham : Green 53 Con 34 Lab 13

CANNOCK CHASE, Hednesford N. : Lab 37 CCI 30 Con 26 Ind 7

HARTLEPOOL, Foggy Furze : Lab 39 Ind 29 Con 25 LD 7

LANCASTER, Warton : Green 42 Con 33 Lab 17 LD 8

W.SUSSEX, Felpham : Con 40 Ind Parker 32 Lab 15 Ind Wild 13

[greenhert]

Arun DC, Barnham: Green 55, Conservative 35, Labour 10. Green gain from Conservative.
Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford North: Chase Community Independents 38, Labour 33, Conservative 23, Independent (Harborow) 6. Chase Community Independents gain from Conservative.
Hartlepool UA, Foggy Furze: Labour 43, Conservative 30, Independent (Stallard) 22, Liberal Democrats 5. Labour gain from Independent.
Lancaster BC, Warton: Green 48, Conservative 33, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 4. Green gain from Conservative.
West Sussex CC, Felpham: Independent (Parker) 48, Conservative 35, Labour 10, Independent (Wild) 7. Independent gain from Conservative.

[andrewp]

Arun. Barnham. Green 54, Con 36, Lab 10
Cannock Chase. Hednesford North, Chase Ind 35, Lab 33, Con 27, Harborow 5
Hartlepool. Foggy Furze, Lab 51: Con 28, Ind 15, LD 6
Lancaster, Warton. Green 46, Con 39, Lab 9, LD 6
West Sussex. Felpham. Con 40, Parker 31, Wild 23, Lab 6

[rockefeller]

Hartlepool, Foggy Furze - CON 45 LAB 39 IND 16

[Robert Waller]

Arun, Barnham. Green 50, Con 40, Lab 10

Cannock Chase, Hednesford North. Chase Ind 30, Lab 35, Con 30, Harborow 5

Hartlepool, Foggy Furze. Lab 45: Con 30, Ind 15, LD 10

Lancaster, Warton. Green 34, Con 35, Lab 8, LD 23

West Sussex, Felpham. Con 40, Parker 35, Wild 15, Lab 10

[yellowperil]

Arun,Barnham: Con 39, Lab 11, GP 50.
Cannock Chase, Hednesford N: Con 23, Lab 37, CCI 36, Ind 4.
Hartlepool, Foggy Furze: Con 28, Lab 47, LD 8,Ind 17.
Lancaster, Warton: Con 37, Lab 8,LD 17, GP 38
West Sussex, Feltham: Con 40, Lab 9, Ind Parker 38,Ind Wild 13.

[rightleaning]

Arun: Barnham. Gn 49, Con 42, Lab 9
Cannock Chase: Hednesford North, Lab 35, Con 30, Ind 28, Harborow 7
Hartlepool: Foggy Furze, Lab 42, Con 34, Ind 18, LD 6
Lancaster: Warton. Gn 44, Con 39, Lab 12, LD 5
West Sussex: Felpham. Con 42, Parker 30, Wild 23, Lab 5

[peterl]

This is for next week, in case I forget.

BOLTON MBC; Rumworth: Labour 46, Conservative 34, Green 10, Reform/BC 6, Lib Dem 4
MANSFIELD DC; Oak Tree: Mansfield Independents 44, Labour 39, Conservative 12, TUSC 3, Freedom 2
MID SUSSEX DC; Bolney: Conservative 35, Lib Dem 25, Green 21, Independent 11, Labour 5, OMRLP 3

[robbienicoll]

I'm not sure whether all of these will count tonight or indeed tomorrow given the circumstances, but will update when they do.

11 full entries with rockefeller joining for the Hartlepool contest, and losing Smartie. All on time, but with Richard Cromwell receiving 11 faults for going over in Arun and Tony Otim 4.7 for missing the Independent in Cannock Chase.

Barnham, Arun: 100% Green gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 20% (greenhert and johnloony).

Hednesford North, Cannock Chase: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp and greenhert Chase Community Independent gain.

Foggy Furze, Hartlepool: 11 Labour gain from Independent, majorities ranging from 8% (Right Leaning) to 25.2% (Tony Otim), rockefeller Conservative gain with majority of 6%.

Warton, Lancaster: 9 Green gain from Conservative, with Richard Cromwell and Robert Waller Conservative hold.

Felpham, West Sussex: 10 Conservative hold, majorities ranging from 2% (yellowperil) to 24% (johnloony), greenhert Ind (Parker) gain with majority of 13%.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YstWtTLcbBoY-zwg1iWSlCUDgSQ69MtMc5zUz66XHQQ/edit?usp=sharing.

[Richard Cromwell]

Sept 7, 2022 12:29:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Your entry for Barnham appears to be Nelson?

AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!